Report: Toyota Scraps Electric Vehicle Plans...

[DaveEV]

Report: Toyota Scraps Electric Vehicle Plans, Will Focus on Hybrids

Toyota's plans to release an all-electric minicar have been trashed, according to Reuters, which reported that the carmaker "misread the market" and overestimated the still-emerging battery technology.

Toyota drops plan for widespread sales of electric car

By dropping plans for a second electric vehicle in its line-up, Toyota cast more doubt on an alternative to the combustion engine that has been both lauded for its oil-saving potential and criticized for its heavy reliance on government subsidies in key markets like the United States.

"The current capabilities of electric vehicles do not meet society's needs, whether it may be the distance the cars can run, or the costs, or how it takes a long time to charge," said, Uchiyamada, who spearheaded Toyota's development of the Prius hybrid in the 1990s.

While this does not bode well for the EV industry in general, it does leave open a big opportunity for those who are determined to succeed in this space (namely Nissan and Tesla). Well - the former anyway if Nissan can get the rapid range loss issue under control.

The article does mention that sales of the plug-in Prius are well below targets - IMO Toyota missed the ball by not giving the Prius enough EV range - but perhaps that's also because batteries weren't light enough to meet their targets.

Personally - I have to wonder if Toyota has long terms plans to acquire Tesla (if they are successful) or if they'll further their investment/partnership with them...

 

[adric22]

This news sounds bad, but I don't think it really is. The minicar is a concept I just don't think would have ever sold well, especially in the USA. So I'm glad they are dropping it now, rather than it be another statistic down the road. As for the PiP the problem is quite simply the price they are asking for it combined with the structure of the tax credits. It really just doesn't make much sense when one can get a Volt for just a tad more. That was the conclusion I came to when making my purchase decision. In my opinion, Toyota needs to get the base price of the plug-in model about $4,000 less than it is now. And I believe they could do that with volume sales.

 

[Zythryn]

...
The article does mention that sales of the plug-in Prius are well below targets - IMO Toyota missed the ball by not giving the Prius enough EV range - but perhaps that's also because batteries weren't light enough to meet their targets.

Personally - I have to wonder if Toyota has long terms plans to acquire Tesla (if they are successful) or if they'll further their investment/partnership with them...

I believe Toyota was focusing primarily on the home (Japanese) market. So while the range may be good for that market, it definitely isn't much of a selling point in the USA.

I am disappointed in their lack of support towards EVs. I would have been much happier if they had made mention of an alternate EV path.

And I don't think Elon would sell to Toyota. I hope not at least.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

I am disappointed in their lack of support towards EVs. I would have been much happier if they had made mention of an alternate EV path.

Maybe they are still searching for a path that doesn't result in losing a bunch of money or irate customers who have lost bars and want new batteries every year at 15k a pop.

 

[cwerdna]

Maybe they are still searching for a path that doesn't result in losing a bunch of money or irate customers who have lost bars and want new batteries every year at 15k a pop.

I think you're spot on w/the 1st point. As for the latter, well, maybe they want to avoid the same issue that Nissan's seems to be facing: degradation in hot climates or be forced to put an active TMS, raising costs and complexity.

I'd think that their work w/li-ion on the PiP and w/Tesla on the Rav4 EV should've given them some insight along w/the market uptake of BEVs and PHEVs now and in the past.

 

[LakeLeaf]

In my opinion, Toyota needs to get the base price of the plug-in model about $4,000 less than it is now. And I believe they could do that with volume sales.

I would second this. For us, the premium for the PIP could not be justified on it's electric range alone.

For that little range, I'd be willing to pay an extra thousand or two, but certainly not the $8k difference between base Prius and the PIP.

 

[cwerdna]

In my opinion, Toyota needs to get the base price of the plug-in model about $4,000 less than it is now. And I believe they could do that with volume sales.

I would second this. For us, the premium for the PIP could not be justified on it's electric range alone.

For that little range, I'd be willing to pay an extra thousand or two, but certainly not the $8k difference between base Prius and the PIP.

The difference of $8K is unfair since some of that is reduced by the Federal tax credit and the CA CVRP which the base Prius isn't eligible for. The base PiP is more well equipped than the base Prius, by the way of forced features (e.g. display audio w/nav and Entune, heated seats, remote AC).

There are currently some better incentives going on in Nor Cal on the PiP than the regular Prius (see http://www.buyatoyota.com/Specials/SpecialOffers.aspx?&" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and put in 95136 zip code).

 

[gbarry42]

As for the PiP [...] It really just doesn't make much sense when one can get a Volt for just a tad more.

I don't have numbers, but if all the Volt owners had bought the PiP instead, would that have been enough to bring it out of "not selling well" status?

 

[DaveEV]

In my opinion, Toyota needs to get the base price of the plug-in model about $4,000 less than it is now. And I believe they could do that with volume sales.

I would second this. For us, the premium for the PIP could not be justified on it's electric range alone.
For that little range, I'd be willing to pay an extra thousand or two, but certainly not the $8k difference between base Prius and the PIP.

Very true. Unfortunately, a big problem with this is that there is some amount of "base" cost required to simply allow charging of a battery using J1772. I believe I saw somewhere that this cost was estimated to be around $4k MSRP. Given that the current retail price of battery at MSRP is also thought to be close to $1,000 / kWh - at least these back-of-the-napkin calculations add up to something close to the MSRP of the PiP.

Further cost reductions of the fixed overhead to enable charging along with the battery will be required to get the price to where we'd like them.

It appears that Ford has been able to do this with the Energi - base price is $1.7k more than the PiP but will quality for larger tax-credits - $3,750 vs $2,500 which basically eliminates the cost difference and at that price both cars appear to be similarly equipped. But you get nearly double the EV miles with the Energi and likely a driving experience that is 100% EV under typical driving when on battery rather than the Prius on steroids the PiP driving experience gets you.

 

[cwerdna]

In my opinion, Toyota needs to get the base price of the plug-in model about $4,000 less than it is now. And I believe they could do that with volume sales.

I would second this. For us, the premium for the PIP could not be justified on it's electric range alone.
For that little range, I'd be willing to pay an extra thousand or two, but certainly not the $8k difference between base Prius and the PIP.

Very true. Unfortunately, a big problem with this is that there is some amount of "base" cost required to simply allow charging of a battery using J1772. I believe I saw somewhere that this cost was estimated to be around $4k MSRP. Given that the current retail price of battery at MSRP is also thought to be close to $1,000 / kWh - at least these back-of-the-napkin calculations add up to something close to the MSRP of the PiP.

The $4K MSRP "cost" you cite is roughly the price delta between the base PiP after Federal and CA incentives and cheapest regular Prius (model Two). The thing is, there isn't a PiP available that's a stripped down as a base Prius (model Two). Base PiP has a bunch of forced features that I already listed earlier.

There's also not quite an equipment level of '12 regular Prius that's directly comparable to what a PiP has. http://priuschat.com/threads/cost-comparison-plug-in-vs-standard.105281/#post-1498067" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; did a comparison. I haven't double checked his numbers though.