TSLA corporate outlook

GRA · Jun 23, 2017

Via IEVS:

Tesla’s Free Lifetime Supercharging Policy Gets New December 31, 2017 Deadline

http://insideevs.com/teslas-free-lifetime-supercharging-policy-gets-new-december-31-2017-deadline/

Supercharging was free for life, then it wasn’t, then it was, now it is again, but just for a limited time.
Tesla’s Supercharging policies have been all over the map, making it difficult to follow the current practice that’s in place today.

Case in point. Just one month or so ago, Tesla made unlimited Supercharging free for current owners after previously having set limits and associated fees on those same owners for use of the high-power charging system.

That’s after several free, not free changes and deadline extensions in the past.

Confusing? Absolutely. Well, prepare to be confused once again. Remember Tesla’s recent “free for life” Supercharging announcement? It read:

“You have free, unlimited Supercharging, including your current Tesla and any new Model S or Model X you purchase. If you choose to sell your current Tesla, free Supercharging will not transfer to the next owner. Also, up to five friends you refer will also receive free Supercharging. Any Supercharging payments made have been automatically refunded. Read our Supercharging terms.”
<snip 5 friends info>

But now it’s been changed slightly to include a deadline for purchase. It now reads:

“You have free, unlimited Supercharging for your current Tesla vehicle as well as any new Model S or Model X purchased before December 31, 2017. If you choose to sell your current Tesla, free Supercharging will transfer to the next owner. In addition, up to five friends you refer will also receive free Supercharging. . . .”

I thought that it would transfer to the next owner under the policy announced last month. Is that an IEVS typo? BTW, I'm getting an almost Trump-induced case of whiplash, as Tesla makes multiple 180-degree turns in quick succession.

LTLFTcomposite · Jun 23, 2017

Has Tesla ever billed anyone for supercharger access? (Not supercharging capability as an option, but actual billing for usage)

dgpcolorado · Jun 25, 2017

LTLFTcomposite said:
Has Tesla ever billed anyone for supercharger access? (Not supercharging capability as an option, but actual billing for usage)

Yes, some new owners did report being billed. They also said that the charges were refunded when the policy changed and they were included in free Supercharging.

These policy shifts on free Supercharging are whiplash inducing. Most of us expect the policy to change again if/when Tesla needs to boost sales of the S and X at some future time.

The irony is that for most S and X owners, who don't do all that much Supercharging, the dollar value of it is rather small. Even for me, my recent 2700 mile road trip used about $100 of Supercharger electricity, so it isn't all that expensive even if I had to pay for it. Nevertheless, the psychology of being able to just get in and go and not worry about fuel cost is quite compelling.

GRA · Jun 26, 2017

Via IEVS:

Tesla Increases Credit Line By $800 Million

http://insideevs.com/tesla-credit-line-800-million/

Just about six months ago Tesla increased its credit line by $500 million with two new agreements. This came shortly after Elon Musk had taken to Twitter to say that additional funding may be unnecessary. Simply increasing the credit line doesn’t ultimately mean that the automaker needs the money, but Musk is definitely playing it safe. The company also raised funds three months ago through stock and debt offerings.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk is definitely no stranger to borrowing and spending to push his companies forward. Now, the Silicon Valley automaker has expanded agreements further, to make space for another $800 million. Initially, the company has access at an asset-backed $625 million, but can then opt for an additional $175 million, if needed.

Friday’s regulatory filing shows that the total combined agreements bump Tesla’s credit line to a substantial $3.825 billion. At the close of the last quarter, the Palo Alto car maker had about $4 billion in available cash, but it was made clear that that number would likely be cut in half by the time Model 3 production starts. . . .

GRA · Jun 30, 2017

Via GCR:

IIHS says Tesla electric cars have higher miles, more costly repairs

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1111306_iihs-says-tesla-electric-cars-have-higher-miles-more-costly-repairs

'Higher miles' is easily explained.

GRA · Jul 2, 2017

I don't remember if anyone's provided a link to this before, but it's a great article in "Fast Company" about the events leading up and subsequent to Tesla's acquisition of SolarCity: https://www.fastcompany.com/4042207...-for-teslas-future-not-to-mention-the-planets

lorenfb · Jul 3, 2017

Per the latest YTD data (http://insideevs.com), Tesla's combined Model S & X sales were about 20K for the U.S.
This is only about 1K greater than for the first six months of 2016 (19K). The unofficial guidance for 2017 is about 100K
vs the actual of 2016 of 76K units. So based on the 2017 YTD vs 2016 YTD, it appears Tesla's growth rate has slowed.
Yes, the Model 3 will possibly add some 2017 volume, but not significantly since production begins to ramp in late Q3
of 2017. Of greater significance, though, is the resulting greater negative potential cash flow with the Model 3
offsetting the declining sales volume of the Model S & X, i.e. Tesla's overall gross profit will decline increasing
GAAP losses requiring continued external funding. Also of significance is that Tesla's 2017 June combined sales
of Model S & X declined about 1300 units compared to 2016.

edatoakrun · Jul 3, 2017

lorenfb said:
Per the latest YTD data (http://insideevs.com)...

Tesla's 2017 June combined sales
of Model S & X declined about 1300 units compared to 2016.

Quarterly US TSLA sales peaked last Fall, and have been falling rapidly each quarter ever since, as per IE reports:

US Tesla Sales Continue Downward Slide.

Quarterly Model S Model X Total
2016 1 6390 2400 8790
2016 2 5700 4540 10240
2016 3 9156 5783 14939
2016 4 7650 5500 13150
2017 1 6100 4300 10400
2017 2 5095 4645 9740

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/us-tesla-sales-continue-downward-slide.93292/#post-2175723

cwerdna · Jul 3, 2017

Related to the above...

Tesla delivers 22,000 vehicles in second quarter (of 2017), blames 'severe production shortfall' of battery packs
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/03/tesla-delivers-22000-vehicles-in-q2-2017.html

Durandal · Jul 3, 2017

I believe it disingenuous to rely purely on US sales numbers for the S & X, considering that Tesla is expanding overseas. There are a number of people who could have comfortably ordered a Model 3 years ago but stretched to buy a Model S. Secondarily, in the TMC forum link that was posted, most of what I would say has already been said regarding production constraints. Year over year sales for the S & X are up when you include global numbers.

Considering that Tesla will sell more units of the Model 3 in the last 4 months of 2017 than Chevy will sell of the Bolt for the entire year of 2017, I'm not concerned about a small drop in US sales that were made up elsewhere in the world.

Tesla(Nasdaq:TSLA) delivered just over 22,000 vehicles in Q2, of which just over 12,000 were Model S and just over 10,000 were Model X. This represents a 53% increase over Q2 2016. Total vehicle deliveries in the first half of 2017 were approximately 47,100.

http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1032033

lorenfb · Jul 3, 2017

Durandal said:
I believe it disingenuous to rely purely on US sales numbers for the S & X, considering that Tesla is expanding overseas.

The implication there is that Tesla's acceptance in the ROW has lagged the U.S. and that Tesla's ROW sales growth rate
will approach that of U.S. long term.

Durandal said:
Considering that Tesla will sell more units of the Model 3 in the last 4 months of 2017 than Chevy will sell of the Bolt for the entire year of 2017,

Hardly of any significance, i.e. given that GM's production forecast was 30K for 2017 and YTD sales are only at 7.6K.

edatoakrun · Jul 5, 2017

A loss of ~$5.81 per share, with over 164 million shares outstanding.

Flush another $ billion down the TSLA this year...

Reality Bites for Tesla Shares
Latest Model 3 plan from Elon Musk actually scales back prior forecasts as fresh competition emerges

By Charley Grant

Updated July 5, 2017 4:11 p.m. ET

Investors started to lose patience with Tesla this week after another unkept promise. ...

The electric car maker’s shares were down more than 10% this week through Wednesday, in less than two full days of trading because of the holiday.

The belief that Tesla would generate hefty profits in the coming years led investors to forgive the company’s long history of missing its own deadlines.

In the latest example, CEO Elon Musk promised earlier this week that Tesla would be able to build 20,000 of its mass-market Model 3s a month by December. Last year, he told analysts that Tesla was aiming to build at least 100,000 Model 3s in 2017. The new timeline, which calls for 100 cars built in August and more than 1,500 in September, would fall well short of the earlier forecast...

The Model 3 will launch as U.S. auto sales are slowing dramatically. And sales of Tesla’s two high-end models haven’t grown meaningfully in a year. The company blames this in part on production issues, but Tesla produced more vehicles than it sold for the last six quarters. Tesla said Model S and X deliveries in the second half of the year would likely be higher than in the first, though it added the caveat: “provided global economic conditions do not worsen considerably.“

Analysts are seemingly bracing for that possibility. They forecast an adjusted loss of $5.81 per share this year on average, according to FactSet; a year ago they predicted $2.62 a share in adjusted profit...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/reality-bites-for-tesla-shares-1499275686

cwerdna said:
Related to the above...

Tesla delivers 22,000 vehicles in second quarter (of 2017), blames 'severe production shortfall' of battery packs
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/03/tesla-delivers-22000-vehicles-in-q2-2017.html

I nominate that comment as Elon's lamest excuse...so far.

Maybe TSLA should invest in battery production?

Must be some desperate locality out there willing to offer TSLA massive subsidies to build a huge battery factory (or even a GIGAFACTORY!!!) somewhere...

finman100 · Jul 6, 2017

wow, that's funny.

edatoakrun · Jul 6, 2017

Tesla’s bad week gets worse as Elon Musk’s credibility takes another hit

Overpromising by Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk does not usually phase his die-hard fans and investors.

But that ended this week, when a trifecta of bad news began to hit the stock. Tesla TSLA, +0.70% shares wove in and out of bear territory Thursday, at one point during the trading day falling 20% off its record high of $383.45 reached on June 23.

It started with Musk’s update late Sunday that the number of cars Tesla delivered in the second quarter was below Wall Street’s estimates, due to a severe battery production shortage. Then Thursday, Tesla was not included in the latest “Top Safety Pick” list of the safest cars. Combined with reports of looming new electric-car rivals, including Volvo, the developments culminated in a big hit to Tesla’s market cap and the loss of its status as the most valuable U.S. auto maker. Tesla has lost about $7.18 billion in market value in the past two trading sessions...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-bad-week-gets-worse-as-elon-musks-credibility-takes-another-hit-2017-07-06

palmermd · Jul 6, 2017

edatoakrun said:
A loss of ~$5.81 per share, with over 164 million shares outstanding.

Flush another $ billion down the TSLA this year...

one year ago today it was at $215. That is almost 50% up on one year.

abasile · Jul 7, 2017

edatoakrun said:
Maybe TSLA should invest in battery production?

Must be some desperate locality out there willing to offer TSLA massive subsidies to build a huge battery factory (or even a GIGAFACTORY!!!) somewhere...

I understand that Tesla was behind in producing their newer, larger 100 kWh battery packs which incorporate some architecture changes. There was no issue producing the "smaller" 75 kWh packs.

LTLFTcomposite · Jul 7, 2017

I've always heard it said that the market is a forward looking animal, particularly when it comes to technology stocks. This seems to come down to a question of how far forward can investors stomach. Even the biggest bulls and fanbois have to appreciate this had gotten a little ahead of itself.

Still looking for the Amazon scenario and will load up in single digits

EatsShootsandLeafs · Jul 7, 2017

LTLFTcomposite said:
I've always heard it said that the market is a forward looking animal, particularly when it comes to technology stocks. This seems to come down to a question of how far forward can investors stomach. Even the biggest bulls and fanbois have to appreciate this had gotten a little ahead of itself.

Still looking for the Amazon scenario and will load up in single digits

Enough bull and bear markets should have shown us that the market is anything but rational and not sentient, either.

This second Tesla's stock is 45% higher than it was last year, but people want to focus on a bad week like it portends some doom. People have been predicting the demise of Tesla when they were building the Roadster. Then that car came out, but Tesla would never accomplish delivering the Model S. Then they did. But, they're on the cusp of death, surely? No, then the Model X comes out. Well okay but now surely they are dead and can't deliver the Model 3, right? Nope, production just started.

I sense a pattern here.

Much of this stems from the fact that people absolutely hate hate hate, loathe loathe loathe being wrong. People who have predicted Tesla's demise from the get-go insist, now more than a decade later, that it will happen any day now. I used to think the company was doomed, but I let it go. Sometimes I'm just wrong. It feels good, like shedding a weight. Anybody who is still betting against Elon Musk, the guy behind tesla, behind self landing rockets, and lots of other projects must really, really hate admitting personal fault.

dgpcolorado · Jul 9, 2017

LTLFTcomposite said:
...Still looking for the Amazon scenario and will load up in single digits

Ah, but if TSLA gets to the single digits it will likely be due to catastrophic news or failure of the company to perform in some major way. Would you really be willing to buy in if that happened?

While I envy those who had the guts to buy in at around the IPO level, where it stayed for several years, that sort of speculative stock isn't the kind of thing that investors who look at fundamentals would buy. It is for gamblers with money they can afford to lose. Is that you?

edatoakrun · Jul 9, 2017

palmermd said:
edatoakrun said:

A loss of ~$5.81 per share, with over 164 million shares outstanding.

Flush another $ billion down the TSLA this year...

Click to expand...

one year ago today it was at $215. That is almost 50% up on one year.

TSLA's continuing financial failure over the last year, in contrast with its increased share price and market value, only demonstrates the fundamental irrationality of TSLA investors.

Of course the equity price run-up means one TSLA investor in particular had a very good year, with ~$3.5 billion of dollars in paper profits from last year's pump, as well as an additional ~$1.34 billion in (calendar year 2016) stock options, of which ~$593 million was reported as actually realized by dumping some of the shares granted:

Elon Musk: The billion-dollar man
Tesla CEO's pay, up 3.6 million percent, soars above auto colleagues'

Elon Musk towered over the highest paid CEOs at publicly traded U.S. automotive companies last year after exercising stock options that skyrocketed his compensation from five figures to 10.

The Tesla Inc. CEO, who usually sits at the bottom of the list because of his penchant for requesting — and refusing to take — California's minimum wage, posted the largest total CEO compensation by a margin of more than a $1 billion. Musk exercised $1.34 billion in stock options set to expire in 2016, according to the Automotive News/Equilar CEO Compensation study.

His pay increased by 3.6 million percent...

However, Musk's reported total compensation "was not actually received in cash upon these exercises," a Tesla proxy statement said. Musk sold $593 million in stock...

http://www.autonews.com/article/20170709/OEM02/170719983/musk-compensation-stock-billion

TSLA corporate outlook

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