GRA
Posts: 7575
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:02 pm

Via IEVS:
In Attempt To Boost Sales, Tesla Offers Up To $30,000 Discount On Inventory S/X, 0.99% APR
http://insideevs.com/in-attempt-to-boos ... -0-99-apr/

Tesla is attempting to boost end-of-quarter sales with such deals as $30,000 off select inventory vehicles and 0.99% APR.
In typical Tesla fashion, the automaker is attempting a last-minute push to get sales on target for Q3 2017.

This time around, Tesla is offering some very enticing deals, which leads us to believe one of two things:

that the Model 3 is indeed maybe cutting into Model S/X sales in the United States, or, at the very least that production of the 3 has made it more difficult for Tesla to deliver custom order Model S/X cars in this quarter before September 30th.

Since most Model 3 orders won’t be delivered anytime soon and especially not by the end of the quarter, Tesla is likely feeling the heat of expectations as the quarter comes to a close (end of September).

The automaker is stepping up its incentives to buy certain models with deals we’ve never seen before. AmpedRealtor posted this email outlining the deals from a Tesla sales associate over on the Tesla Motors Club Forum:

"Hi [AmpedRealtor],

I hope this email finds you well.

I’m reaching out because we just announced an incentive on Model S and Model X P100D that I thought you may be interested in.

We are offering showroom incentives up to $30,000 off the original configuration price. This means you can lease Model S P100D for $1,500/month and Model X P100D for $1,600/month with 10,000 miles per year. Alternatively we are offering .99% APR financing or a cash purchase with the discount. These incentives are available for deliveries by September 30th 2017.

Lastly, we’ve reintroduced the Tesla Referral Program. You will receive a $1,000 credit towards the purchase of either a new Model S or Model X and Free Unlimited Supercharging. <snip>"

The up to $30,000 deal applies only to inventory Teslas (maybe only demo cars) and only the highest end versions, those being the Model S P100D and Model X P100D. We should point out that the wording specifically says “up to” $30,000 off. We assume the max discount would only apply to demo cars with higher mileage (a few thousand miles or so). . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

User avatar
LTLFTcomposite
Posts: 4349
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 6:06 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Dec 2011
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Boca Raton FL

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:38 pm

Carbon emissions, horrid working conditions, paltry wages, all blocked from view through the magic of the shipping container.
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue

GRA
Posts: 7575
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:31 pm

Via ABG:
Tesla extends the range of cars to help owners escape Irma
https://www.autoblog.com/2017/09/09/tes ... cane-irma/

Free OTA update applies to "60 kWh" Model S/X that are really "75s". Temporary only and the SC network in Florida is still functioning, but a terrific move from the PR standpoint. Now that's how you build customer loyalty and get lots of positive word of mouth advertising, even if relatively few need it.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

palmermd
Posts: 2442
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:19 pm
Delivery Date: 31 Mar 2011
Leaf Number: 1100011011
Location: Hermosa Beach, CA

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:06 pm

GRA wrote:Via ABG:
Tesla extends the range of cars to help owners escape Irma
https://www.autoblog.com/2017/09/09/tes ... cane-irma/

Free OTA update applies to "60 kWh" Model S/X that are really "75s". Temporary only and the SC network in Florida is still functioning, but a terrific move from the PR standpoint. Now that's how you build customer loyalty and get lots of positive word of mouth advertising, even if relatively few need it.


this is awesome!
Michael

Leaf since 31 March 2011
Driving electric since 1996


First Bar Loss
Second Bar Loss
Third Bar Loss

GRA
Posts: 7575
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:50 pm

Via Bloomberg:
NTSB Staff to Say Tesla Autopilot Should Share Blame for 2016 Crash
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 2016-crash

The investigative staff of U.S. National Transportation Safety Board, in its first probe of the wave of autonomous driving systems being introduced by carmakers, has recommended that Tesla’s Autopilot system be declared a contributing factor in the crash because it allowed the driver to go for long periods without steering or apparently even looking at the road, according to a person briefed on the findings. . . .

The NTSB is meeting Tuesday to issue its final findings on the crash and the conclusions are subject to revision by its board members. The staff has recommended a finding that Tesla’s automation allowed Joshua Brown to effectively let the car drive itself even though the manufacturer had warned customers they weren’t allowed to do so, the person said. . . .

A class-action suit was filed against Tesla in April alleging that the Autopilot software is “dangerously defective” when engaged. The cars sometimes veer out of lanes, jam on the brakes for no reason or fail to stop when approaching other vehicles, the suit filed in California claimed.

Tesla responded that it never claimed its vehicles are equipped with “full self-driving capability," said the suit misrepresented facts and called the action “a disingenuous attempt to secure attorney’s fees.”

I will provide a link to the NTSB findings tomorrow if no one else does first.

In related news. via ABG:
Family of Tesla driver killed in 'Autopilot' crash does not blame car
https://www.autoblog.com/2017/09/11/tes ... blame-car/

WASHINGTON —The family of the driver of a Tesla Model S who was killed in a May 2016 crash while using the car's semi-autonomous driving system said on Monday the car was not to blame for the crash.

The statement from the family of Joshua Brown, released by a law firm, comes a day before the National Transportation Safety Board is set to hold a hearing in Washington and vote on the probable cause of the crash.

"We heard numerous times that the car killed our son. That is simply not the case," said the statement from the family, breaking its silence on the crash. "There was a small window of time when neither Joshua nor the Tesla features noticed the truck making the left-hand turn in front of the car."

"People die every day in car accidents," the statement said. "Change always comes with risks, and zero tolerance for deaths would totally stop innovation and improvements."

A spokeswoman for Tesla and a lawyer for the family, Jack Landskroner, have declined to say if the automaker has reached a legal settlement with the Brown family. . . .

I think we can guess the answer to that question.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 7575
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:15 pm

NTSB press release can be found here:https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/PR20170912.aspx

The National Transportation Safety Board determined Tuesday that a truck driver’s failure to yield the right of way and a car driver’s inattention due to overreliance on vehicle automation are the probable cause of the fatal May 7, 2016, crash near Williston, Florida.

The NTSB also determined the operational design of the Tesla’s vehicle automation permitted the car driver’s overreliance on the automation, noting its design allowed prolonged disengagement from the driving task and enabled the driver to use it in ways inconsistent with manufacturer guidance and warnings.

As a result of its investigation the NTSB issued seven new safety recommendations and reiterated two previously issued safety recommendations. . . .

Pretty much as expected. I've posted more extended excerpts in the "Tesla's Autopilot, on the Road" topic: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=22213&p=505044#p505044

Reuters article, quoting the closing statement of the head of the NTSB:
“System safeguards were lacking,” NTSB Chairman Robert Sumwalt said. “Tesla allowed the driver to use the system outside of the environment for which it was designed and the system gave far too much leeway to the driver to divert his attention. The result was a collision that should not have happened. System safeguards were lacking.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKCN1BN1QP
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

lorenfb
Posts: 1407
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:10 am

RegGuheert wrote:Tesla has stated that they will source all of their cobalt from North America, but that seems extremely unlikely if they come anywhere close to their Model 3 production goals:
TechCrunch wrote:So where does that leave us with Tesla? Elon Musk ambitiously aims at producing 500,000 electric vehicles a year by 2018, and Tesla has repeatedly stated that the cobalt will be sourced exclusively in North America. Whether this is a realistic assumption is a different story.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) states that cobalt production in 2015 was 124,000 metric tons. Canada and the U.S. together produce roughly 4 percent of the world’s supply, nowhere near Tesla’s needs for just one of its models. Indeed, estimations from InvestorIntel show that half a million units of Tesla’s Model 3 would be equivalent to 7,800 tons of new cobalt demand, or roughly 6 percent of the annual cobalt production worldwide. The math does not seem to add up. Tesla reportedly has difficulties securing off-take agreements from traditional cathode material suppliers and is reaching down to junior miners.

Precisely regarding the juniors’ landscape, eCobalt Solutions Inc. (formerly Formation Metals) (TSX:ECS) is a Canadian mineral exploration and mine development company primarily owning the Idaho cobalt project, a high-grade and primary cobalt deposit in the U.S.. The highly anticipated project is by far the most advanced one in the region and should go online in a year’s time. Two more years will be needed to run at full capacity. Production is estimated to reach roughly 1,500 tons annually over the course of a 12.5-year lifetime, i.e. about 1 percent of the global market. Compare this to Tesla’s needs for the Model 3 and the new supply of cobalt in North America looks muted at best.


M3s at final test without batteries? What's the latest 2018 production schedule?

edatoakrun
Posts: 4751
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Sep 28, 2017 10:34 am

While it is foolish, IMO, to try to predict when and how any investment bubble will end, the analysis below points out just how exceptionally bizzare TSLA's short life as a public company has been, and the perilous path to profitability presented by the model 3 roll-out..

Bernstein predicts Tesla shares will plunge as it nears an unprecedented $10 billion cash burn

"Tesla's persistent cash burn has been a major investor controversy … In fact, Tesla may be the largest public company in history to have never generated either positive annual cash flow or positive annual profit," analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. "Even if we can disregard Tesla's cash burn, we continue to worry about the company's ability to deliver upon its long-term vision of profitability. Specifically, we worry about whether Tesla can successfully build the mass-market Model 3: (1) with good gross margins, (2) with good quality, and (3) on time."...

He estimates Tesla will burn through $4.7 billion of cash this year reaching a total $10.6 billion of cash burn as a public company by the end of 2017, which is unprecedented for a nearly $60 billion market cap company.

In comparison, he cited how Amazon burned $1.1 billion of cash over three years and was generating billions of dollars of cash when it reached a $60 billion valuation. Costco burned through $1.9 billion of cash over eight years, but its value topped out at roughly $15 billion during the time period, according to the analyst.

"We believe the essential issue with Tesla's stock is not how much cash the company burns right now, but rather how well the company can execute upon its Model 3 launch – specifically around gross margins - and demonstrate that it has a clear path to long-term profitability,"...

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/27/bernste ... -burn.html
no condition is permanent

finman100
Posts: 286
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 10:42 am
Delivery Date: 06 Jun 2014
Location: Albany, OR

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Sep 29, 2017 12:29 pm

yay! more lies! it's called re-investment for the future. something other auto makers could look into. or not.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/aalsin/2017/03/14/why-general-motors-has-already-lost-to-tesla/#186c63dd3ccb

Yeah, that's sustainable.

oh. and good luck on the shorts. yay again!
Albany, Oregon
2014 Silver SV with charge/LED package. June 2014, I'm in the EV game!
42,000 miles
18.0 kWh on 100% charge (52-ish Ah), down 1 bar
4.2 miles/kWh average
Best trip: all of 'em. They're all no-gas!

User avatar
LTLFTcomposite
Posts: 4349
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 6:06 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Dec 2011
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Boca Raton FL

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Sep 29, 2017 3:52 pm

^ If GM had been building a DCFC network instead of buying back stock I'd probably be buying a Bolt now, in spite of the crappy seats. Instead I'll wait for Tesla.
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue

Return to “Other Electric Cars & Plug-In Hybrids”