DaveinOlyWA
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:34 am

cwerdna wrote:
DaveinOlyWA wrote:Seattle group video of "5xx" in a parking lot, NOT a Tesla delivery area


https://www.facebook.com/groups/Seattle ... 232741823/

Unfortunately, that's a closed group and folks have to join that group to see the pic(s).


guessing it will be on youtube in short order but the point remains that deliveries are ratcheting up! ;)
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 (build 10/2016)"low water marks" 27,000 miles.363GID Ahr 79.13Hx95.17%kwh28.1QCs238,L2's 251
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lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:54 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
cwerdna wrote:
DaveinOlyWA wrote:Seattle group video of "5xx" in a parking lot, NOT a Tesla delivery area


https://www.facebook.com/groups/Seattle ... 232741823/

Unfortunately, that's a closed group and folks have to join that group to see the pic(s).


guessing it will be on youtube in short order but the point remains that deliveries are ratcheting up! ;)


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GlennD
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:47 am

The Sunday LA Times had an article about the poor quality of the cars offered to journalists to test. You would think cars that are to be written about would be perfect. I wonder what ordinary cars look like. I may never exercise my reservation.
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edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:15 pm

DaveinOlyWA wrote:... the point remains that deliveries are ratcheting up! ;)

No evidence that model 3 pre-production corporate deliveries have even reached 500 yet, and no public deliveries have even reached configuration stage.

Pathetic effort so far, with only development prototypes having been delivered at a fraction of the production output Nissan managed in 2010-11, with the pioneering LEAF roll out.

Of Course, in 2011 Nissan only had to deal with a major earthquake and Tsunami, While the Model 3 output has to overcome bungling by TSLA management...
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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Nov 19, 2017 1:36 pm

Don't be fooled. Many of these are holograms of Model 3 vehicles, part of a larger conspiracy.

GRA
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:45 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:Don't be fooled. Many of these are holograms of Model 3 vehicles, part of a larger conspiracy.

I knew they'd be re-using the moon landing set eventually ;)
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edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:53 pm

Model 3 is one of three BEVs MT is considering for COTY, so we can assume that TSLA has already loaned them one for testing, or will soon.

http://www.motortrend.com/news/2018-mot ... roduction/

MT doesn't seem to have overly positive opinions of the other two BEVs in contention, the 2018 LEAF and Ioniq (BEV and HEV, no test of PHEV version:

http://www.motortrend.com/news/nissan-l ... contender/

http://www.motortrend.com/news/hyundai- ... contender/
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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:56 am

edatoakrun wrote:Pathetic effort so far, with only development prototypes having been delivered at a fraction of the production output Nissan managed in 2010-11, with the pioneering LEAF roll out.


Okay, let's fact check that statement.

Worldwide Nissan LEAF sales:

Oct 2010: 12
Nov 2010: 5
Dec 2010: 21
Jan 2011: 88
Feb 2011: 2660
Mar 2011: 326
Apr 2011: 625
May 2011: 1209

So after the first 4 months of production (basically where we are at now with the Model 3), Nissan sold 126 LEAFs. Compared to the 367 (estimated -- 220 known in the first 3 months), the fraction you are talking about would be 122/42. If Tesla's effort has been pathetic, what are we to call Nissan's effort during that time which was only 34% of that?

Now for sure, they did get things rolling quite nicely in their 5th month. And while I don't expect Tesla to roll out anywhere near 2.6K vehicles this month, indications are that things are starting to pick up quite a bit. And even if it takes an extra month to get up to the pace that Nissan finally achieved, I have a feeling you are going to look a bit silly comparing Nissan production rates with Tesla's.

edatoakrun wrote:Of Course, in 2011 Nissan only had to deal with a major earthquake and Tsunami, While the Model 3 output has to overcome bungling by TSLA management...


Yes, the earthquake/tsunami hit in March 2011, and you can see that Nissan's numbers subsequently took a hit. Basically it disrupted manufacturing by about 3 months. If Tesla's problems persist and there is NO progress made towards improving production rates, then your point is valid. Conversely if they clear the log jams in the system and go on to achieve a mostly unprecedented (and certainly for EVs) ramp rate, then again, you risk looking silly.

Do you have any specific evidence of "bungling" to support your thesis? About all I can think of is Elon's overpromising of the ramp rate. Other that, it's fairly presumptuous to assume that there is actual bungling going on and that this is nothing more than a typical bring up.
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abasile
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:14 am

lpickup wrote:Do you have any specific evidence of "bungling" to support your thesis? About all I can think of is Elon's overpromising of the ramp rate. Other that, it's fairly presumptuous to assume that there is actual bungling going on and that this is nothing more than a typical bring up.

Being late and missing timetables has always been a well-known part of Tesla's corporate DNA. You sort of have to expect this, even when Elon says that they're going to be on time. Obviously, this doesn't sit well with all investors and customers, and people are within their rights to consider this "bungling".

I remain a Tesla fan and investor because Tesla has always come through, eventually, with amazing products. Early copies of their products have typically had lots of glitches, yes, but the company has largely stood behind their products and sought to keep their customers happy.

Our family remains in line for a Model 3 because no other manufacturer, none, is building a semi-affordable BEV with AWD, a rated range over 300 miles, and access to an extensive, intercity fast charging network. Ultimately, I think the Model 3 will sell quite well.
2011 LEAF at 71K miles, pre-owned 2012 Tesla S 85 at 98K miles
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DaveinOlyWA
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:31 am

abasile wrote:
lpickup wrote:Do you have any specific evidence of "bungling" to support your thesis? About all I can think of is Elon's overpromising of the ramp rate. Other that, it's fairly presumptuous to assume that there is actual bungling going on and that this is nothing more than a typical bring up.

Being late and missing timetables has always been a well-known part of Tesla's corporate DNA. You sort of have to expect this, even when Elon says that they're going to be on time. Obviously, this doesn't sit well with all investors and customers, and people are within their rights to consider this "bungling".

I remain a Tesla fan and investor because Tesla has always come through, eventually, with amazing products. Early copies of their products have typically had lots of glitches, yes, but the company has largely stood behind their products and sought to keep their customers happy.

Our family remains in line for a Model 3 because no other manufacturer, none, is building a semi-affordable BEV with AWD, a rated range over 300 miles, and access to an extensive, intercity fast charging network. Ultimately, I think the Model 3 will sell quite well.


The "all" is the key operative here. Musk has so much financial support available, he does not have to be concerned over the whims of consumerville. His backers know he might be late but he won't be short. The car will cover the need and beyond. Its the beyond that insures that he can spend willy nilly without fear of balancing the books.

As far as that goes, I will still not get a V. 1.0 Tesla of any kind. Hype and a few years experience means nothing in a company that grows no moss. :)
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 (build 10/2016)"low water marks" 27,000 miles.363GID Ahr 79.13Hx95.17%kwh28.1QCs238,L2's 251
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