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^ I don't see a delay in the AWD Model 3 thus far — still says mid 2018. Perhaps the change in my account page will be coming. Or not.

26085950607_cc5de72f59_z.jpg
 
EVDRIVER said:
Have you selected "hold my place" yet? Mine says mid 2018 for AWD
When I select "hold my place" it says that I'll get an email when further configurations are available. So far the "mid 2018" for AWD remains on my configuration page.

My impression is that Tesla is trying to push USA deliveries back enough that the 200,000th won't happen until July, given that Canadian line waiters can now order "First Production." If true, that would make for the full tax credit for the rest of this year and partial tax credits for all of 2019. Since I can't use the federal tax credit, it is only of academic interest to me (and I've decided that I like the Model S better anyway).


Edit:
Those who track such things report that Tesla has registered 4697 new VINs in the last three days, for a current total of 18540. It may be that the production logjam is easing.
 
dgpcolorado said:
EVDRIVER said:
Have you selected "hold my place" yet? Mine says mid 2018 for AWD
When I select "hold my place" it says that I'll get an email when further configurations are available. So far the "mid 2018" for AWD remains on my configuration page.

My impression is that Tesla is trying to push USA deliveries back enough that the 200,000th won't happen until July, given that Canadian line waiters can now order "First Production." If true, that would make for the full tax credit for the rest of this year and partial tax credits for all of 2019. Since I can't use the federal tax credit, it is only of academic interest to me (and I've decided that I like the Model S better anyway).


Edit:
Those who track such things report that Tesla has registered 4697 new VINs in the last three days, for a current total of 18540. It may be that the production logjam is easing.


I hope I get to order before they fold at the end of the year or Lorenfb convinces me the sky has fallen. I got an umbrella policy for that.
 
Not letting anyone (fanboys) "fall-a-sleep" with regard to the "on-schedule" M3:

Late on Wednesday, InsideEvs reported that availability of the long range all-wheel drive version of the Model 3 has been pushed back from mid-2018 to late 2018. This likely means that the company will continue to focus only on the long range rear-wheel drive version, which is estimated to be the highest margin variant. InsideEvs also stated that some consumers have seen their estimated delivery dates for the short range dual-motor version being pushed back, and there is further speculation that the complete standard battery version will be pushed back again soon.

Now it may not come as a surprise to many that there are more delays coming to the Model 3. As of Thursday, the Bloomberg Model 3 tracker only has about 8,000 units being produced so far in Q1 2018, likely implying the company will miss its stated production goal of 2,500 units per week by the end of the month. This would mean revenues will come up short, also leading to a potential billion dollar loss and massive cash burn.

As usual, you fanboys will say; "Cash burn, is that a problem?" As "learned" from the joke of a Tesla "finance primer" on YouTube.

Unfortunately for Tesla, more delays also means more trouble trying to hit margin targets. The Model 3 was expected to have a negative gross margin in Q1, and that was likely on a forecast for several thousand units more of production. As I've continued to detail, cobalt prices continue to soar, now above $43 a pound as seen below. They were just above $10 when the Model 3 was launched, so this is definitely going to be a problem down the line for all of Tesla's products that potentially require up to two dozen pounds of cobalt. While we don't know the official details of the battery contract with Panasonic, you can't argue that such a surge in cobalt will help Tesla.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4158339-tesla-another-model-3-delay?auth_param=1adagi:1db805d:587800fddc6c7d3ed0dbfc8f677ff4f5&uprof=44&dr=1

Remember, Tesla has only five more days to reach the guidance (one of many) of 2500/wk by the end of Q1. But who really cares,
as Tesla can and will live in perpetuity with a negative cash flow, right?
 
dgpcolorado said:
^ I don't see a delay in the AWD Model 3 thus far — still says mid 2018. Perhaps the change in my account page will be coming. Or not.

26085950607_cc5de72f59_z.jpg
Good data point for Tesla owners.

I am similar to you (Colorado, early reservation) but am not a Tesla owner.
My AWD date is "late 2018."

Until recently my AWD date was "2H 2018" and mentioned either SR or LR battery packs. Now the AWD option does not mention either battery pack so a somewhat pessimistic (but I think reasonable) view would be that the first AWD produced will be LR models. Since I want an AWD SR model I'm presuming early 2019 delivery.
 
SageBrush said:
...I am similar to you (Colorado, early reservation) but am not a Tesla owner.
My AWD date is "late 2018."

Until recently my AWD date was "2H 2018" and mentioned either SR or LR battery packs. Now the AWD option does not mention either battery pack so a somewhat pessimistic (but I think reasonable) view would be that the first AWD produced will be LR models. Since I want an AWD SR model I'm presuming early 2019 delivery.
I wonder whether they will even produce AWD SR cars. They might just tie AWD to LR. However, Tesla did eventually just go with all dual drive for the S and X, so perhaps that will happen with the Model 3 someday.

I continue to wonder whether the non-PUP versions will have a narrow strip of metal roof over the front seats or will they just go with a glass roof for all cars. We haven't yet seen a non-PUP car and assembly of the cars is made easier with the glass roof (because it is easier for robots to place interior components, such as seats).
 
I was wondering about the roof as well. Perhaps they will have a new configuration in the future.
 
A short video on questions regularly asked. Well edited. (I watch videos on youtube directly with gear icon to change speed to x1.25 or x1.5)

I answer viewer questions about the car and give information after owning the car for 6 weeks and 2000 miles. Tesla Model 3 review video by Larry Benjamin. Published on Mar 23, 2018

youtube.com/watch?v=V-GOdnV5N_k
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-GOdnV5N_k
 
That video would have been perfect if Lorenfb was in the back seat yelling over him talking about all of Teslas financial issues and how dumb the guy is to buy the car. Mid way through he should also be informed his motor is going to soon blow up and he will likely be stranded with a dead 12V battery. Unfortunately that really can't happen because we all know Lorenfb is not allowed to sit in a Tesla or look at one except on Chrome or more likely IE. Look look at the video at about 1:33 in you can see part of the sky falling in the background, man that reviewer is one brain washed sheeple.
 
scottf200 said:
A short video on questions regularly asked. Well edited. (I watch videos on youtube directly with gear icon to change speed to x1.25 or x1.5)

I answer viewer questions about the car and give information after owning the car for 6 weeks and 2000 miles. Tesla Model 3 review video by Larry Benjamin. Published on Mar 23, 2018

It’s unfortunate that the reviewer (Larry) hadn’t driven or owned a BEV before driving the M3, as many of the beneficial features he describes,
e.g. acceleration, handling, quietness and smoothness, are available on most all BEVs. Furthermore, the cabin features which he demos such
as the automatic climate control air direction has been available on all cars for over 30 years. His main focus of the review was on the display
and its functions, i.e. most couldn't care less about music downloads. Nice try for Larry, but he needs to watch other BEV car reviews before
publishing on YouTube. Most present BEV owners or potential BEV buyers wouldn't benefit much from the review when considering a M3 purchase.
 
lorenfb said:
mtndrew1 said:
Oh just ignore him, honestly. He’s goofy.

Have a problem focusing on the issues being discussed, or are you only capable of ad hominem attacks too?

mtndrew1 said:
Tesla can remotely flash nearly every part of the car without it ever seeing a mechanic. If you ever watch one of the cars go through its update cycle you’ll hear and see many of the subsystems going through firmware flashing.

But when one posts laughable comments as above, one usually reverts to their trolling nature.

Are you related to Gary Lieber “OrientExpress”? Here’s some of his goofy posts that sound just like you:

1. "So far, all of the posts on this subject are speculation, hearsay, innuendo, and opinion."

2. "In reading through all the cases, I really don't see a problem"

3. "I have to believe that if there was an issue, it would have been detected and solved by now"

4. This is just a problem with "several vocal individuals."

5. There is so much confidence, he agreed to swap his battery!!! >>> "sure, come on by, and we will put the cars up on blocks and switch them out." :)

6. There are as many cars with reduced capacity as there are with ">>excess<< capacity and they are both edge cases". I sure as heck haven't seen a mention of that >>excess<< case(s) !!!!

7. "If there is an actual issue with a customer's battery, then it will be a simple routine warranty repair."

8. This is just "battery FUD that is concentrated in some posts... Kuddos to Nissan for a job well done."

9. Hey, it's only "17 cars out of a population of 25000 is .00068.... or in layman's terms, an edge case."

10. "for the 0.00074074074074 of LEAF owners..... investigate the myriad of options other than complaining to get satisfaction for your transportation needs."

11. Still no problem; just charge more!!! "'the only complaint being that they have to be "filled-up" more often"

12. "Of the fewer than 10 posters that make up the the vast majority of the posts in the 148+ pages of this thread, I'm probably the most rationale one of the bunch."

13. It's a little battery problem because "in the larger scheme of things this is just a fart in the breeze."

14. "8 or so posters that have been the key proponents of this... with some interpretative data that they have been able to glean from some homebrew devices". Hey, Phil, when will you have my homebrew device ready?

15. And then the insults got more pronounced... "Nothing smells right when you don't have a sense of smell". And then there's: "
One of the sure signs of dementia is paranoia and being convinced that everything smells bad."


16. All of the previous statements are because "I have a deeper understanding of how failure analysis in the automotive industry works."

17. So, it might be a software problem... "What if this whole thing is just a SW bug that is not accurately reporting the capacity of the battery?" A bit later, that was upgraded to, "reputable highly-placed sources suggest that a software bug". Naturally, no data to support this, or any other claim.

18. Some very specific and detailed data from most detailed person on the forum is just tossed aside with... "your methodology does not support your conclusions". This is from somebody that really hasn't provided ANY data.

19. Another "theory" with no data to support it (nor was any offered), "only those cars that have been driven in a severe and high-mileage mode trigger the condition."

20. The best for last, as this post is an all time classic!!! "very vocal and seemingly hysterical schizophrenic ADD owners ... they don't represent the vast majority of LEAF owners.... for whatever reason are unable to deal with the situation and would rather freak out. Speculation is rampant, and facts are few... fan the flames of discontent in a very trollish manner... for many that is not good enough and demand immediate satisfaction... Other than assigning wet nurses to the most vocal and impatient of those that are dissatisfied, it is hard to say what more than can be done."
 
lorenfb said:
scottf200 said:
A short video on questions regularly asked. Well edited. (I watch videos on youtube directly with gear icon to change speed to x1.25 or x1.5)

I answer viewer questions about the car and give information after owning the car for 6 weeks and 2000 miles. Tesla Model 3 review video by Larry Benjamin. Published on Mar 23, 2018

It’s unfortunate that the reviewer (Larry) hadn’t driven or owned a BEV before driving the M3, as many of the beneficial features he describes,
e.g. acceleration, handling, quietness and smoothness, are available on most all BEVs. Furthermore, the cabin features which he demos such
as the automatic climate control air direction has been available on all cars for over 30 years. His main focus of the review was on the display
and its functions, i.e. most couldn't care less about music downloads. Nice try for Larry, but he needs to watch other BEV car reviews before
publishing on YouTube. Most present BEV owners or potential BEV buyers wouldn't benefit much from the review when considering a M3 purchase.


I suggest you do a review the M3 or S, that way you can at least say you have sat in a Tesla. Perhaps ask one of your friends to borrow theirs?
 
lorenfb said:
It’s unfortunate that the reviewer (Larry) hadn’t driven or owned a BEV

Why should that be a problem? The same could be said about the authors from SeekingAlpha you are fond of quoting.
 
lpickup said:
lorenfb said:
It’s unfortunate that the reviewer (Larry) hadn’t driven or owned a BEV

Why should that be a problem? The same could be said about the authors from SeekingAlpha you are fond of quoting.

Their issue and mine is not with the M3 vehicle but with Tesla and Elon, e.g. taking reservations for a $35k M3
and knowing that it would not be delivered when production began or ever. Furthermore, if Tesla doesn't really
need to be concerned about profitability, then why doesn't Tesla deliver a $35K M3 now? It would develop
goodwill and threaten other BEV products, e.g. Leaf 2 & Bolt. Tesla would dominate the BEV market!
If a M3 were deliverable for $35K in the next 30 days, I and most all on MNL would buy one.
 
All I can see is that Musk is putting a bait and switch on the public. He made a big name for himself with the miniscule production of the Tesla cars.

Then he has quickly branched out into putting cars into space, pushing the idea of electric tractor trailers, and now self-driving busses. I think all of this is a scam because no company has that much money to initiate, research, and dominate all those new product markets!!!
 
lorenfb said:
lpickup said:
lorenfb said:
It’s unfortunate that the reviewer (Larry) hadn’t driven or owned a BEV

Why should that be a problem? The same could be said about the authors from SeekingAlpha you are fond of quoting.

Their issue and mine is not with the M3 vehicle but with Tesla and Elon, e.g. taking reservations for a $35k M3
and knowing that it would not be delivered when production began or ever. Furthermore, if Tesla doesn't really
need to be concerned about profitability, then why doesn't Tesla deliver a $35K M3 now? It would develop
goodwill and threaten other BEV products, e.g. Leaf 2 & Bolt. Tesla would dominate the BEV market!


There was no promise to deliver a $35K from the outset and companies change their priorities all the time based on their business needs regardless. So you were there when they came up with this strategy of "knowing that it would not be delivered when production began or ever" That is complete unsubstantiated BS that you choose to peddle here over and over. Please site where this information is sourced from Tesla, fantasy land does not count.
 
powersurge said:
All I can see is that Musk is putting a bait and switch on the public. He made a big name for himself with the miniscule production of the Tesla cars.

Then he has quickly branched out into putting cars into space, pushing the idea of electric tractor trailers, and now self-driving busses. I think all of this is a scam because no company has that much money to initiate, research, and dominate all those new product markets!!!


Yes it's a big scam! The Model is is made in China too. :lol:
 
lorenfb said:
Their issue and mine is not with the M3 vehicle but with Tesla and Elon, e.g. taking reservations for a $35k M3
and knowing that it would not be delivered when production began or ever.

Sorry, that sounds good, but I'm calling total BS on it.

In your most recent posting quoting a SA article, you mentioned cash burn and product ramp (not necessarily related to base model) as key issues. Have you forgotten already, or just changed your mind suddenly and now think all that's wrong is the lack of a $35K Model 3?

lorenfb said:
As usual, you fanboys will say; "Cash burn, is that a problem?" As "learned" from the joke of a Tesla "finance primer" on YouTube.

lorenfb said:
Remember, Tesla has only five more days to reach the guidance (one of many) of 2500/wk by the end of Q1. But who really cares, as Tesla can and will live in perpetuity with a negative cash flow, right?

And if we went back, we could cover the whole litany of issues you have with Tesla: build quality; poor design of 12V system; poor user interface; issues with phone as key. Go back far enough and I suspect we'd find some posts saying that Tesla would go under before delivering ANY Model 3's.
 
lpickup said:
lorenfb said:
Their issue and mine is not with the M3 vehicle but with Tesla and Elon, e.g. taking reservations for a $35k M3
and knowing that it would not be delivered when production began or ever.

lpickup said:
Sorry, that sounds good, but I'm calling total BS on it.

In your most recent posting quoting a SA article, you mentioned cash burn and product ramp (not necessarily related to base model) as key issues. Have you forgotten already, or just changed your mind suddenly and now think all that's wrong is the lack of a $35K Model 3?

Like to take posts out of context? Please re-read the complete post with this:

lorenfb said:
Furthermore, if Tesla doesn't really
need to be concerned about profitability, then why doesn't Tesla deliver a $35K M3 now? It would develop
goodwill and threaten other BEV products, e.g. Leaf 2 & Bolt. Tesla would dominate the BEV market!


lpickup said:
And if we went back, we could cover the whole litany of issues you have with Tesla: build quality; poor design of 12V system; poor user interface; issues with phone as key.
Go back far enough and I suspect we'd find some posts saying that Tesla would go under before delivering ANY Model 3's.

Not my posts. Let's not makeup posts. References please.

Again, please focus on the real issue and deal with it:

Furthermore, if Tesla doesn't really need to be concerned about profitability (as many on MNL now seem to believe), then why doesn't
Tesla deliver a $35K M3 now? It would develop goodwill and threaten other BEV products, e.g. Leaf 2 & Bolt. Tesla would dominate the
BEV market! Since you, like most, likely assumed that Tesla would deliver the M3 based on reservation date placement, which is usually
the case for most all product reservation placements, where're the $35K M3 deliveries? Sorry if you're one of those waiting.
If a M3 were deliverable for $35K in the next 30 days, or ever, I and most all on MNL would buy one.
 
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