edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:10 am

Intentionally or not, it now looks like TSLA spoofed the BB model which, no longer shows an estimate of 3k weekly production.

...as of this moment, our estimated weekly production has fallen back down to 2,866 and production is now expected to continue to step down over the next three weeks. We've made no changes to the model, so what gives?

The revisions are almost entirely due to new VINs being reported to Bloomberg (Method 2). In early April those numbers jumped by almost 4,000 VINs in a single week, producing a noticeable gap in the dataset. It's not clear what caused the jump, whether Tesla for some reason temporarily skipped over a chunk of VINs or if it was just an artifact of how new customers reported their vehicles to Bloomberg during the surge. Regardless, that portion of our model responded as if a major new surge was underway.

But our model is built to continually adjust its estimates as we receive new data, and the most recent VINs reported to Bloomberg initiated such a correction. Those numbers should continue to revise downward until they reach Tesla's new equilibirum, wherever that may be...

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:46 pm

The only sooof is third party data.

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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:19 pm

edatoakrun wrote:Intentionally or not, it now looks like TSLA spoofed the BB model which, no longer shows an estimate of 3k weekly production.


If it's not intentional, it's not a "spoof", it's a faulty model. Sorry, you need to put the blame on Bloomberg themselves in that case, not Tesla.
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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Apr 16, 2018 2:22 pm

lpickup wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:Intentionally or not, it now looks like TSLA spoofed the BB model which, no longer shows an estimate of 3k weekly production.


If it's not intentional, it's not a "spoof", it's a faulty model. Sorry, you need to put the blame on Bloomberg themselves in that case, not Tesla.


That's not the way Ed and Loren roll.......

palmermd
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:19 pm

edatoakrun wrote:Intentionally or not, it now looks like TSLA spoofed the BB model which, no longer shows an estimate of 3k weekly production.

...as of this moment, our estimated weekly production has fallen back down to 2,866 and production is now expected to continue to step down over the next three weeks. We've made no changes to the model, so what gives?

The revisions are almost entirely due to new VINs being reported to Bloomberg (Method 2). In early April those numbers jumped by almost 4,000 VINs in a single week, producing a noticeable gap in the dataset. It's not clear what caused the jump, whether Tesla for some reason temporarily skipped over a chunk of VINs or if it was just an artifact of how new customers reported their vehicles to Bloomberg during the surge. Regardless, that portion of our model responded as if a major new surge was underway.

But our model is built to continually adjust its estimates as we receive new data, and the most recent VINs reported to Bloomberg initiated such a correction. Those numbers should continue to revise downward until they reach Tesla's new equilibirum, wherever that may be...

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/




so the logical answer must be that production rates are crashing. The chart does not lie.


I'm not sure why were so concerned about day to day numbers rather than a general trend. To me the general trend has been upward, and all reports are that it is getting better. Unless you don't believe the CBS reporter who was there last week.

I'm still waiting on my reservation. I've been invited for a month now, but waiting for the same car I can order today, with only the smaller battery as the change. I'm not in any hurry, and I expect I'll have a car late this year or early next.
Michael

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edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:44 pm

palmermd wrote:... I expect I'll have a car late this year or early next.

Good luck...

Tesla Is Temporarily Shutting Down Model 3 Production. Again.

During the pause, workers can choose to use vacation days or stay home without pay. This is the second such temporary shutdown in three months for a vehicle that’s already significantly behind schedule.


...Over the last six months, Tesla’s inability to meet its production goals has become a mounting problem for the company. The most recent miss came at the end of the first quarter of 2018; Musk had said the company would be manufacturing 2,500 cars a week by that date, but it was making only 2,000 per week by April 1. Now, just two weeks later, production is once again on hold...

These production problems — as well as some lackluster reviews of the new Tesla model and alleged problems with its Autopilot technology — could put Tesla on the path to bankruptcy, CNN (and others) have reported. Musk’s only comment on this possibility to date has been an April Fools' joke in which he pretended the business, which employs more than 30,000 people, had in fact gone out of business, and that he was wandering Palo Alto drinking a fake product called Teslaquilla...

https://www.buzzfeed.com/carolineodonov ... ilKrAommyY
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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:09 pm

Ed,
if You think a 3-5 day delay is going to impact a year end delivery then you really have one up on all of us.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:39 am

EVDRIVER wrote:Ed,
if You think a 3-5 day delay is going to impact a year end delivery then you really have one up on all of us
I assume that the shutdown WILL impact a year-end delivery since they likely are taking this step to further optimize the assembly line. I would think Tesla is either replacing some assembly-line equipment with better versions or replacing them with humans in and effort to improve throughput at some bottleneck (or perhaps at multiple bottlenecks).
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palmermd
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:50 am

RegGuheert wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:Ed,
if You think a 3-5 day delay is going to impact a year end delivery then you really have one up on all of us
I assume that the shutdown WILL impact a year-end delivery since they likely are taking this step to further optimize the assembly line. I would think Tesla is either replacing some assembly-line equipment with better versions or replacing them with humans in and effort to improve throughput at some bottleneck (or perhaps at multiple bottlenecks).


Yes, it improves my chances of getting it by year's end. These negative comments (from Ed and loren and seeking alpha) seem to be getting more desperate lately. In the short term I hope they are successful; I'll just buy more stock on a dip.
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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:29 am

Yes, means the seeking alpha writing trolls will need to scurry for more articles to write. I hear Elon may take a day off in July, that should create a flurry of gloom and doom articles. Could you imagine if Tesla had the pack issues the LEAF has, it would be national news. The sad part of all these FUDsters is that they try to make Tesla into a vilified company when they have actually demonstrated the opposite, particularly when compared to Nissan, Toyota, and others. People should be cheering a company that has accomplished so much, provides incredible innovation and market changes, US jobs, and opened its patents. Instead we have people cheering for their failure to profit and entitled whiners that are upset they can’t get what they want when they want it. Nothing like rallying for a solid innovative company promoting a beneficial cause to fail, pretty patriotic. It blows my mind to hear people say Tesla never intended to build a low price car and it’s a trick while Nissan knew their packs would degrade and they basicallly did everything they could to screw customers out of warranty support while dealers try to fleece customers with oil changes. No company is perfect but this entire experience says more about people than Tesla.

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