GetOffYourGas
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Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:43 am

GRA wrote:One of my requirements is to have the car meet my needs for at least 12 but preferably 15 years or more


Guy,

I'm not going to debate your ability to use a Model 3. I think that you have a perfectly legitimate reason to hang onto your Subie. In fact, keeping the car that you have is by far the most environmentally friendly thing you can do. Far better than buying a new car every 3 years.

That said, I'll say this about the quoted - infrastructure is growing very quickly. I would expect a lot of your gaps to be filled in as your car ages (and original battery degrades). If the car can make it in 2018 with a new battery, it will probably still make it in 2030 with a degraded battery (assuming proper battery management - an unknown), albeit with additional QC stops.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:10 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:
GRA wrote:One of my requirements is to have the car meet my needs for at least 12 but preferably 15 years or more

Guy,

I'm not going to debate your ability to use a Model 3. I think that you have a perfectly legitimate reason to hang onto your Subie. In fact, keeping the car that you have is by far the most environmentally friendly thing you can do. Far better than buying a new car every 3 years.

That said, I'll say this about the quoted - infrastructure is growing very quickly. I would expect a lot of your gaps to be filled in as your car ages (and original battery degrades). If the car can make it in 2018 with a new battery, it will probably still make it in 2030 with a degraded battery (assuming proper battery management - an unknown), albeit with additional QC stops.

I've been expecting/hoping a lot of the gaps would be filled in for several years now, at least as far as Tesla's SC network, but many of the ones they've said they were going to do have been put back for a year (more than once in many cases), so I can't count on what may exist at some point, only what does exist. If it hadn't been for lobbying by TMC members (including me), we might still not have SCs in Groveland and Fishcamp as well as Lone Pine and Mammoth Lakes (most of us were asking for Lee Vining rather than Mammoth, and still want one there), so people could get through Yosemite to the east side. I mentioned some of the other SCs upthread that also have been promised for a while but not built. Same goes for the CEC sites, which were announced back at least in 2017 and should have been done this year, but have apparently been delayed again per Paul Gipe.

Besides, patience isn't my strong suit, and sitting around at QCs solely because I'm waiting for enough charge to get me where I want to go would quickly drive me insane; I need enough range that all charging stops can be combined with meals and take the same amount of time. I listed for you what I consider my minimum requirements in the 'Electrify America' topic: https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=25212&p=536870&hilit=bishop#p536870 and as noted there, I'm willing (but definitely not eager) to accept a 50% decrease in range/capability compared to my current (or pretty much any other fossil-fueled) vehicle to go ZEV. That will allow at least weekend trips without major excess time for charging stops, i.e. no more than one QC each way. Getting down to Lone Pine and back might take two, which is a pain. Serious road trips (400+ miles each way) are still going to involve a lot of excess wasted time in a BEV.

A Model 3 LR can probably (it shows as yellow, will probably make it) make my base case trip to Lee Vining for a couple of years (worst case, an October trip with 4 guys plus packs @ 1,000 lbs., 32 deg. avg. but no major wind or rain, speed 1.1, 90% start, 15% end), but as noted it's the wrong body type (as well as having other features I consider undesirable and being too expensive). The Niro won't be able to do that trip in those conditions, but might be able to for a year or two in benign conditions. Realistically, I'd need one of the CEC's QCs in Groveland or at Rush Creek Lodge at Yosemite plus one in Lee Vining to be built before I can do the round trip with reasonable reserves and without having to twiddle my thumbs for an extra hour or two of charging (by needing to charge above 80% enroute).
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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evnow
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:07 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:In fact, keeping the car that you have is by far the most environmentally friendly thing you can do. Far better than buying a new car every 3 years.


That is not actually a fact.

Depending on the vehicle's gas mileage and availability of zero carb electricity, getting an EV might be better.


Even one every 3 years - because the sold (or lease back) car will replace a clunker cheaply for someone else.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

mux
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:58 am

If you really want to go into LCA stuff, it gets much more complicated quickly. You have to include:
- How many tons of CO2-equivalent does the new car cost to produce
- How many emissions is the new car actually offsetting
- How strongly does your new purchase actually increase production of cars
- Who are you selling your old car to (i.e. what's the car's lifecycle, not just your ownership lifecycle?)

Right now, in relatively worst-case conditions for BEVs, a BEV emits about 4-8 tons of CO2 more during production than an ICE car. On most grids, this is offset by about 20-40k mi of driving (at 35mpg-ish). So if you can cause your ICE car to drive about that amount less over its entire lifecycle, it'll be a win. You can speed things along by making sure to only charge on 100% renewables. But, if your decision to purchase a BEV will in fact accelerate the production of cars, certainly the short-term and likely even the long-term effect will be that net emissions will go up.

Thus, driving less and buying less cars is always going to be the greener option. And in a surprising amount of cases, sticking to your old gas guzzler may be better too.

This is why it's probably best to stimulate EVs among very inefficient and inherently high-mileage drivers, like taxis and sales reps. That's where you can get a lot of net benefit from EVs quickly without having all kinds of ancillary negative effects in the manufacturing chain.

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Oct 21, 2018 3:41 pm

evnow wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:In fact, keeping the car that you have is by far the most environmentally friendly thing you can do. Far better than buying a new car every 3 years.


That is not actually a fact.

Depending on the vehicle's gas mileage and availability of zero carb electricity, getting an EV might be better.


Even one every 3 years - because the sold (or lease back) car will replace a clunker cheaply for someone else.

I'm averaging less than 2k miles/year (@ 28-30 mpg) over the past several years, so in my case I have little doubt that keeping the car is the lowest GHG choice, even though my community recently switched to zero carbon electricity (with 100% renewables as an individual option). When my annual mileage goes back up to 10k or more it will be time to switch, but I'm only planning to take the trips that will cause that to happen after I've switched.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GetOffYourGas
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Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Oct 22, 2018 5:24 am

GRA wrote:
evnow wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:In fact, keeping the car that you have is by far the most environmentally friendly thing you can do. Far better than buying a new car every 3 years.


That is not actually a fact.

Depending on the vehicle's gas mileage and availability of zero carb electricity, getting an EV might be better.


Even one every 3 years - because the sold (or lease back) car will replace a clunker cheaply for someone else.

I'm averaging less than 2k miles/year (@ 28-30 mpg) over the past several years, so in my case I have little doubt that keeping the car is the lowest GHG choice, even though my community recently switched to zero carbon electricity (with 100% renewables as an individual option). When my annual mileage goes back up to 10k or more it will be time to switch, but I'm only planning to take the trips that will cause that to happen after I've switched.


Exactly.

EVNow - I was specifically addressing Guy's situation, and not making a blanket statement. All of the points you bring up are valid in a general case. With Guy's extreme use case, though, it simply doesn't apply.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:38 pm

Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:49 pm



Careful what you cite. They're not all worth the ink they've been written with. That Bloomberg New Energy Finance report is beyond F**d up!

"The problem, BNEF notes, is that the places that build batteries for electric cars around the world use among the dirtiest energy. Those places include China, Thailand, Germany, and Poland, the report says."

Hmmm, where does Nissan build the Leaf batteries? And what about Renault, Hyundai, Kia, and LG? And I don't even need to point out the gorilla in the room do I?
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
Date - Miles / GIDs:
May '17 - 7300 mi / 363
Feb '18 - 20.5k mi / 333

mux
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:18 pm

One of the driving reasons for *increasing* battery prices at the moment (in the Western market) is that the vast majority of batteries for EVs we can actually drive are made in some of the cleanest-energy, best-working-condition-areas of the world (Panasonic - Japan and US, LG and Samsung SDI - South Korea, AESC - Japan), using ethically sourced materials. These aren't the problem, and these are actually very low-carbon and low-polluting.

The scary articles about battery production mostly center around BYD and smaller manufacturers in China, who have much less scrupules about unethically sourcing materials and just using the cheapest energy around, which is still coal in China. Unfortunately for the world, China is the largest EV market, so on the whole, this makes EVs look bad even though a Tesla battery is probably 10x as good as a BYD battery in terms of carbon and chemical pollution.

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:33 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:


Careful what you cite. They're not all worth the ink they've been written with. That Bloomberg New Energy Finance report is beyond F**d up!

"The problem, BNEF notes, is that the places that build batteries for electric cars around the world use among the dirtiest energy. Those places include China, Thailand, Germany, and Poland, the report says."

Hmmm, where does Nissan build the Leaf batteries? And what about Renault, Hyundai, Kia, and LG? And I don't even need to point out the gorilla in the room do I?

Have you noted the number of battery plants now being built or expanded in China and the other countries mentioned above which are heavily dependent on coal for electricity, by companies like BMW and D-B, not to mention Tesla and the native companies?
China's BYD launches world's biggest battery factory
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-byd/chinas-byd-launches-worlds-biggest-battery-factory-idUSKBN1JO0SI

Tesla’s Latest Aim: Build 500,000 Cars a Year in China
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/10/business/tesla-china-shanghai.html

Daimler to buy electric car battery cells from China's CATL
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-daimler-batteries-catl/daimler-to-buy-electric-car-battery-cells-from-chinas-catl-idUSKBN1I31WB

Battery production in Thailand. Mercedes-Benz Cars pushes electric initiative in South-East Asia
https://www.daimler.com/company/locations/thailand/

BMW Brilliance Automotive expands battery factory in China
https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T0281461EN/bmw-brilliance-automotive-expands-battery-factory-in-china?language=en

And going the other way:
BMW is investing billions into China’s new battery-cell factory in Germany
https://qz.com/1323752/bmw-is-investing-billions-into-chinas-first-battery-plant-in-germany/

You mentioned LG Chem:
LG to open Europe's biggest car battery factory next year
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lgchem-factory-poland/lg-to-open-europes-biggest-car-battery-factory-next-year-idUSKBN1CH21W

That will be in Poland, a country that gets more than half its primary energy from coal, and as for electricity, coal is an even larger % of the total (88% in 2012).
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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