GRA wrote:One of my requirements is to have the car meet my needs for at least 12 but preferably 15 years or more
I'm not going to debate your ability to use a Model 3. I think that you have a perfectly legitimate reason to hang onto your Subie. In fact, keeping the car that you have is by far the most environmentally friendly thing you can do. Far better than buying a new car every 3 years.
That said, I'll say this about the quoted - infrastructure is growing very quickly. I would expect a lot of your gaps to be filled in as your car ages (and original battery degrades). If the car can make it in 2018 with a new battery, it will probably still make it in 2030 with a degraded battery (assuming proper battery management - an unknown), albeit with additional QC stops.
I've been expecting/hoping a lot of the gaps would be filled in for several years now, at least as far as Tesla's SC network, but many of the ones they've said they were going to do have been put back for a year (more than once in many cases), so I can't count on what may exist at some point, only what does exist. If it hadn't been for lobbying by TMC members (including me), we might still not have SCs in Groveland and Fishcamp as well as Lone Pine and Mammoth Lakes (most of us were asking for Lee Vining rather than Mammoth, and still want one there), so people could get through Yosemite to the east side. I mentioned some of the other SCs upthread that also have been promised for a while but not built. Same goes for the CEC sites, which were announced back at least in 2017 and should have been done this year, but have apparently been delayed again per Paul Gipe.
Besides, patience isn't my strong suit, and sitting around at QCs solely because I'm waiting for enough charge to get me where I want to go would quickly drive me insane; I need enough range that all charging stops can be combined with meals and take the same amount of time. I listed for you what I consider my minimum requirements in the 'Electrify America' topic: https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=25212&p=536870&hilit=bishop#p536870
and as noted there, I'm willing (but definitely not eager) to accept a 50% decrease in range/capability compared to my current (or pretty much any other fossil-fueled) vehicle to go ZEV. That will allow at least weekend trips without major excess time for charging stops, i.e. no more than one QC each way. Getting down to Lone Pine and back might take two, which is a pain. Serious road trips (400+ miles each way) are still going to involve a lot of excess wasted time in a BEV.
A Model 3 LR can probably (it shows as yellow, will probably make it) make my base case trip to Lee Vining for a couple of years (worst case, an October trip with 4 guys plus packs @ 1,000 lbs., 32 deg. avg. but no major wind or rain, speed 1.1, 90% start, 15% end), but as noted it's the wrong body type (as well as having other features I consider undesirable and being too expensive). The Niro won't be able to do that trip in those conditions, but might be able to for a year or two in benign conditions. Realistically, I'd need one of the CEC's QCs in Groveland or at Rush Creek Lodge at Yosemite plus one in Lee Vining to be built before I can do the round trip with reasonable reserves and without having to twiddle my thumbs for an extra hour or two of charging (by needing to charge above 80% enroute).