EatsShootsandLeafs said:
I believe the refund rate to be much higher than Tesla has hinted at. With the claimed reservation rate, the number sold, and the fact that the non-SR backlog is now fully satisfied (even today tesla.com claims you can order for 2018 delivery--which is obviously not true, but still), the reservation rate can't be taken seriously unless a massive percentage are still holding out for the SR, even though they'll never buy one with the tax credit.
Is going to be very interesting to see how demand for these changes next month when the price goes up by $3750, then another $1800 a quarter later...
The tax credit will stay at $3750 for six months and then drop to $1875 for another six months. As always, the tax credit is limited to the amount of federal income taxes owed or the tax credit amount, whichever is lower. Those of us with low incomes would get little or no credit.
So far as reservations go, bear in mind that a lot of them are from overseas. European deliveries are expected to begin in February. For USA and Canada, reservations haven't been needed anymore for months. It is possible that those waiting for the SR will get slightly earlier delivery if they have a reservation but my guess is that it will be on the order of a few weeks to a month or so.
For Tesla, the large number of reservations after the Model 3 reveal served to show them that they needed to increase manufacturing of the Model 3
much more quickly than they had originally anticipated. At this point, the reservations really matter only for overseas customers.
I am curious what the steady-state demand will be for the Model 3 in a year or two. I was quite surprised that the demand for the Models S and X held fairly steady even after Model 3 production ramped up to high levels. Didn't expect that. It will be interesting to see what the Model Y will do to Model 3 sales in a couple of years.