TSLA corporate outlook

My Nissan Leaf Forum

Help Support My Nissan Leaf Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.
cwerdna said:
Tonight (12/9/18), there's supposed to be an interview w/Elon Musk on 60 Minutes. Set your TiVos, DVRs, etc. to record it. (I have a One Pass for the show on my TIVo Bolt+.)
Looks like you can watch it at https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-the-2018-60-minutes-interview/.

I haven't had chance to compare what's on my TiVo, as I've not had time to watch either yet.
 
Colin Rusch, Oppenheimer managing director/sr research analyst when asked about up and coming competition for Tesla, in particular VWAG:

...on the competition note, we've actually been disappointed with the vehicles we've seen rolled out this year...

(goes on to talk about what a snooze the Audi offerings are)

Guys who think you can just buy OTS parts and slap something together are getting slapped.
 
Elon Musk says people need to work around 80 hours per week to change the world
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-says-80-hours-per-week-needed-change-the-world-2018-11

Learned of the piece below from another forum that RonDawg and I are on.
Dr. Elon & Mr. Musk: Life Inside Tesla's Production Hell
https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-life-inside-gigafactory/

The wife of one guy on that forum apparently was a former Tesla employee (didn't know about the former part until today) and said his wife did speak to the author of the article. The guy did post some things corroborating some of what the article said.
 
cwerdna said:
Elon Musk says people need to work around 80 hours per week to change the world
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-says-80-hours-per-week-needed-change-the-world-2018-11

Learned of the piece below from another forum that RonDawg and I are on.
Dr. Elon & Mr. Musk: Life Inside Tesla's Production Hell
https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-life-inside-gigafactory/

The wife of one guy on that forum apparently was a former Tesla employee (didn't know about the former part until today) and said his wife did speak to the author of the article. The guy did post some things corroborating some of what the article said.

Seems those that believe in it will work those hours those that don't won't. This is just like any struggling company or startup. Not sure what the news content is in this other than the reality of the state of affairs.
 
cwerdna said:
Elon Musk says people need to work around 80 hours per week to change the world
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-says-80-hours-per-week-needed-change-the-world-2018-11

Learned of the piece below from another forum that RonDawg and I are on.
Dr. Elon & Mr. Musk: Life Inside Tesla's Production Hell
https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-life-inside-gigafactory/

The wife of one guy on that forum apparently was a former Tesla employee (didn't know about the former part until today) and said his wife did speak to the author of the article. The guy did post some things corroborating some of what the article said.
Even if I hadn't watched things unfold and experienced it from the outside as a member of the public, reading the Wired article is like being on an emotional roller-coaster.
 
cwerdna said:
https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-life-inside-gigafactory/
This quote from the article...
It would eventually come out in Tesla’s financial filings that almost 20 percent of customers who had put down a deposit for the Model 3 had asked for refunds.
I'm responsible for 2 refunded Model 3 deposits. They wouldn't let me apply the deposit to the cars I was buying, so I had to request a refund.
 
GRA said:
cwerdna said:
Elon Musk says people need to work around 80 hours per week to change the world
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-says-80-hours-per-week-needed-change-the-world-2018-11

Learned of the piece below from another forum that RonDawg and I are on.
Dr. Elon & Mr. Musk: Life Inside Tesla's Production Hell
https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-life-inside-gigafactory/

The wife of one guy on that forum apparently was a former Tesla employee (didn't know about the former part until today) and said his wife did speak to the author of the article. The guy did post some things corroborating some of what the article said.
Even if I hadn't watched things unfold and experienced it from the outside as a member of the public, reading the Wired article is like being on an emotional roller-coaster.


https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-spacex-tesla-employees-best-ceo-2018/
 
jlv said:
It would eventually come out in Tesla’s financial filings that almost 20 percent of customers who had put down a deposit for the Model 3 had asked for refunds.
I'm responsible for 2 refunded Model 3 deposits. They wouldn't let me apply the deposit to the cars I was buying, so I had to request a refund.
And one was mine. I decided I liked the Model S better than the 3 so I didn't need my reservation anymore.
 
I believe the refund rate to be much higher than Tesla has hinted at. With the claimed reservation rate, the number sold, and the fact that the non-SR backlog is now fully satisfied (even today tesla.com claims you can order for 2018 delivery--which is obviously not true, but still), the reservation rate can't be taken seriously unless a massive percentage are still holding out for the SR, even though they'll never buy one with the tax credit.

Is going to be very interesting to see how demand for these changes next month when the price goes up by $3750, then another $1800 a quarter later.

I have a co-worker who has had a vin for many weeks and despite his best efforts cannot get Tesla to deliver his car. He claims that if they do not do so this month he'll be forced to cancel (he already paid in full) and demand a refund. Tesla won't respond to his emails and the delivery manager he has is mostly unresponsive as well.
 
Tesla is absolutely slammed making deliveries this month. As best as I can tell in this area, they have every employee (solar installers, office workers) in the delivery center handling deliveries.

We just took delivery of our X earlier this week. We weren't hearing anything from the delivery advisor at all up until 3 days before delivery was scheduled. In fact, I was getting worried and annoyed, too, since I couldn't get ahold of anyone. When they did contact us, it was to ask us if we wanted to move the delivery from Monday 2 days earlier to Saturday. We almost did that, until we were told they were doing over 100 deliveries on Saturday. We opted for Monday when only about 60 were happening.

The Dedham, MA service/delivery center was still packed full of cars and people on Monday. Most of the deliveries were 3s, but there were a handful of S and X getting delivered, too. They had a 3x6 matrix of cars in the packing lot getting final prep for delivery (customer walk-throughs and attaching plates), and they were constantly moving cars into the matrix as deliveries happened. There was a row of trade-ins 10 long that kept getting added to while someone kept moving the cars off-site to one of the 4 lots of vehicles they had.

It was a far different experience compared when we got the S and picked it up there. The original 2-car indoor delivery area is now the paperwork staging area and waiting room for those picking up. They were happy we were already owners, since it meant someone didn't need to spend extra time with us explaining everything about the car (I'm not even sure they were doing that at all).

We were there just under 2 hours and watching this all go on around us was amazing - like some complicated choreography. There have been several threads at TMC on how Dedham was a mad house in the last few weeks. It looks like they've finally gotten things somewhat figured out. However, I can imagine that one thing out of place could put a proverbial monkey wrench and cause chaos there.

There is an 8 stall SuperCharger at Dedham, but it's been marked "limited service / unavailable" for 2 months as it's mostly dedicated to charging cars being delivered. Just as we were leaving, and lady in her 70s came in driving an S looking to charge. She just pulled in and stopped in the one lane path through the parking lot (trade-ins on the left, new cars on the right) apparently thinking she could charge. The folks moving the new cars into the delivery matrix patiently told her she couldn't wait there (blocking the lane!), but she said she needed the charge, so they asked her to wait inside while they moved out a delivery car to get her a SC stall. They were really great about it.

I certainly expect Tesla to report a record number of cars delivered this quarter.
 
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
I believe the refund rate to be much higher than Tesla has hinted at. With the claimed reservation rate, the number sold, and the fact that the non-SR backlog is now fully satisfied (even today tesla.com claims you can order for 2018 delivery--which is obviously not true, but still), the reservation rate can't be taken seriously unless a massive percentage are still holding out for the SR, even though they'll never buy one with the tax credit.

Is going to be very interesting to see how demand for these changes next month when the price goes up by $3750, then another $1800 a quarter later...
The tax credit will stay at $3750 for six months and then drop to $1875 for another six months. As always, the tax credit is limited to the amount of federal income taxes owed or the tax credit amount, whichever is lower. Those of us with low incomes would get little or no credit.

So far as reservations go, bear in mind that a lot of them are from overseas. European deliveries are expected to begin in February. For USA and Canada, reservations haven't been needed anymore for months. It is possible that those waiting for the SR will get slightly earlier delivery if they have a reservation but my guess is that it will be on the order of a few weeks to a month or so.

For Tesla, the large number of reservations after the Model 3 reveal served to show them that they needed to increase manufacturing of the Model 3 much more quickly than they had originally anticipated. At this point, the reservations really matter only for overseas customers.

I am curious what the steady-state demand will be for the Model 3 in a year or two. I was quite surprised that the demand for the Models S and X held fairly steady even after Model 3 production ramped up to high levels. Didn't expect that. It will be interesting to see what the Model Y will do to Model 3 sales in a couple of years.
 
ABG:
Tesla names Larry Ellison, Kathleen Wilson-Thompson to board
They join the board as independent directors
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/12/28/tesla-names-larry-ellison-kathleen-wilson-thompson-to-board/

Also ABG:
Tesla's Musk says cave rescuer's defamation case should be dismissed
Lawyers say it was a 'schoolyard spat' and 'imaginative attacks'
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/12/28/teslas-musk-says-cave-rescuers-defamation-case-should-be-dismi/

Elon Musk, Tesla Inc's chief executive, asked a U.S. judge to dismiss a lawsuit by a British diver who helped rescue a boys soccer team trapped in a Thailand cave and said Musk defamed him by calling him a pedophile and child rapist.

In a filing on Wednesday with the U.S. District Court in Los Angeles, Musk's lawyers said their client's comments about Vernon Unsworth were free speech protected by the U.S. Constitution's First Amendment even if they lacked any factual basis.

They also said Musk's "over-the-top" comments came amid a "schoolyard spat on social media," including Twitter, where participants "expect to read opinions, not facts," and that no one could have reasonably believed they were truthful.

These statements were "just imaginative attacks; even if offensive, such speculative insults are by their nature opinion and protected by the First Amendment," the lawyers said. . . .

L. Lin Wood, a lawyer for Unsworth, rejected Musk's defense, saying it would effectively doom all lawsuits over alleged false and defamatory attacks on reputation published online.

"Mr. Musk does not let the facts or well-established law get in the way of his novel but inaccurate contentions in his motion to dismiss," Wood said on Thursday. "I am confident the trial court will likewise reject this fanciful position."

A hearing is set for April 1, 2019.

Unsworth, who lives in Hertfordshire County north of London, sought at least $75,000 in compensatory damages plus unspecified punitive damages in his Sept. 17 lawsuit. . . .
If libel and slander laws have any meaning at all, the judge will treat Musk's lawyers' claims with the contempt they deserve.
 
dgpcolorado said:
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
I believe the refund rate to be much higher than Tesla has hinted at. With the claimed reservation rate, the number sold, and the fact that the non-SR backlog is now fully satisfied (even today tesla.com claims you can order for 2018 delivery--which is obviously not true, but still), the reservation rate can't be taken seriously unless a massive percentage are still holding out for the SR, even though they'll never buy one with the tax credit.

Is going to be very interesting to see how demand for these changes next month when the price goes up by $3750, then another $1800 a quarter later...
The tax credit will stay at $3750 for six months and then drop to $1875 for another six months. As always, the tax credit is limited to the amount of federal income taxes owed or the tax credit amount, whichever is lower. Those of us with low incomes would get little or no credit.

So far as reservations go, bear in mind that a lot of them are from overseas. European deliveries are expected to begin in February. For USA and Canada, reservations haven't been needed anymore for months. It is possible that those waiting for the SR will get slightly earlier delivery if they have a reservation but my guess is that it will be on the order of a few weeks to a month or so.

For Tesla, the large number of reservations after the Model 3 reveal served to show them that they needed to increase manufacturing of the Model 3 much more quickly than they had originally anticipated. At this point, the reservations really matter only for overseas customers.

I am curious what the steady-state demand will be for the Model 3 in a year or two. I was quite surprised that the demand for the Models S and X held fairly steady even after Model 3 production ramped up to high levels. Didn't expect that. It will be interesting to see what the Model Y will do to Model 3 sales in a couple of years.

I am still holding out for the bbasic 3. lately I have been flooded with calls to buy a mid range car before year end. I am sorry, read my lips, I want a base car with only the color option. Not a nearly 50K car.

It looks like 3 inventory is good but I want my base car. The sales manager says at least 6 months. Maybe never.
 
If libel and slander laws have any meaning at all, the judge will treat Musk's lawyers' claims with the contempt they deserve.

Not really, those defenses directly challenge the requirements for libel.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/073115/can-you-be-sued-negative-comments-online.asp

Musk used a deragetory term (“pedo”) as a descriptor.
It’s as if I called someone a bastard. I’m not stating anything about their mother, just name calling.
 
Zythryn said:
If libel and slander laws have any meaning at all, the judge will treat Musk's lawyers' claims with the contempt they deserve.

Not really, those defenses directly challenge the requirements for libel.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/073115/can-you-be-sued-negative-comments-online.asp

Musk used a deragetory term (“pedo”) as a descriptor.
It’s as if I called someone a bastard. I’m not stating anything about their mother, just name calling.
If that's the standard, when you've got 24 million Twitter followers and your comments are widely reported in the news media, then libel and slander laws are meaningless. Elon had a chance to back down, then amplified his comments. Since there's absolutely no basis for them (as far as we know, and Elon's never provided any evidence), he ought to just accept that he's going to pay and publicly retract so this doesn't drag on as a distraction. If $20 mil to the SEC was 'worth it', then paying this guy off for a lot less certainly is. I'm in complete agreement with Unsworth's lawyer, who said:
“I am confident the trial court will likewise reject this fanciful position which if adopted, would effectively prevent an individual from seeking redress for any and all false and defamatory attacks on reputation published on the Internet,” Lin Wood said.
Is that really the kind of society we want, where as long as you libel someone on the internet it's okay, but if you do it somewhere else it isn't? I sure don't.
 
Yes, but it's hard to imagine Tesla without Elon Musk so what he says and does directly affects Tesla's corporate outlook. Too bad he doesn't seem to care about that detail.
 
GRA said:
Is that really the kind of society we want, where as long as you libel someone on the internet it's okay, but if you do it somewhere else it isn't? I sure don't.

False equivalency there GRA.

The standard isn't, and the defense isn't that it is on the internet so it is ok.

The same standard goes for in person, print, tweets, etc.
If it is name calling, it isn't libel. Now, I don't know if it was or wasn't, as you said, the argument continued and more was said than simply the slam "pedo". What I am saying, is the simple name calling, is not libel.
If it were, our President would be guilty on a few thousand counts of it ;)
 
dgpcolorado said:
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
I believe the refund rate to be much higher than Tesla has hinted at. With the claimed reservation rate, the number sold, and the fact that the non-SR backlog is now fully satisfied (even today tesla.com claims you can order for 2018 delivery--which is obviously not true, but still), the reservation rate can't be taken seriously unless a massive percentage are still holding out for the SR, even though they'll never buy one with the tax credit.

Is going to be very interesting to see how demand for these changes next month when the price goes up by $3750, then another $1800 a quarter later...
The tax credit will stay at $3750 for six months and then drop to $1875 for another six months. As always, the tax credit is limited to the amount of federal income taxes owed or the tax credit amount, whichever is lower. Those of us with low incomes would get little or no credit.
This is true but of course the average Tesla buyer pays far more than $7500 in federal taxes. There are rare exceptions.
GlennD said:
I am still holding out for the bbasic 3. lately I have been flooded with calls to buy a mid range car before year end. I am sorry, read my lips, I want a base car with only the color option. Not a nearly 50K car.
I had a reservation with original intent to get a standard one as well. As Tesla continued to lag, delay, excuses over this it become readily apparent that it would never be possible to get one with the federal tax credit. Moreover, it seemed increasingly likely to many, including me, that the SR would never happen. Ever. I'm still not convinced it will ever happen.

The SR is supposed to be $35k. Today they announce a $2k reduction to all Teslas, so the cheapest now is apparently $44k with 260 miles range with a much bigger battery than SR plus the "premium" options. Here's what I believe is going to happen:

The $35k Tesla will never exist. If I'm wrong on that, my next guess is it exists, sells a very small number, and then Tesla pulls the plug claiming "lack of demand".

I gave up last year on the idea that we'd ever see large numbers of readily available $35k Teslas. The car has been in production now for fully 1.5 years and still these are "4-6 months" away per tesla.com.

Tesla got massive, free attention from the media on this. OMG a $35k Tesla? Sign me up. And literally I did sign up. I put $1k down in 2017 for it. They were supposed to have them rolling off the line Dec 17. Then a delay, then a delay, then some more delays. And now on their website the 4-6 months puts them mid-2019. Until they delay again, that is, or just cancel the standard range altogether.
 
Separate post now. Tesla is down big in premarket after missing expectations. for Q4 delivery. All Teslas have now a $2000 price reduction to help offset federal deduction phase-out.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/31/tesla-4q-2018-production-and-delivery-numbers.html
 
Back
Top