GRA
Posts: 10184
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:28 pm

cwerdna wrote:
GRA wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:Silver is the most rare color and not even produced anymore after Sept. Black and white are the most common colors.

Interesting, because here in the Bay Area based on my eyeball survey I'd say the most popular colors are Midnight Silver followed by Deep Blue. There's some blacks and a few reds, but I've seen very few whites.

What Tesla calls "Midnight Silver", I'd call dark grey. It's a color I don't like. It's still available and thus common.

EVDRIVER's I believe referring to "Metallic Silver" which is rare because it's discontinued (https://www.autoblog.com/2018/09/11/elo ... nt-colors/). That color is what I'd call silver on a car.

Yes, I knew that's what he meant, as three of the four cars I've owned have been 'silver metallic' :D While it's a great color for longevity and has a high albedo to keep temps down, I admit I'm kind of tired of it. I like the dark gray (Midnight Silver), but that (or black) are the wrong colors for anyone who places a high priority on limiting battery degradation. White's boring albeit with the same advantages as silver, and I don't much care for Tesla's red, so if I were interested in a Model 3 I'd probably opt for Deep Blue. Actually, I'm sort of surprised that more people don't complain about having to pay $1.5 or $2.5k to get some color other than black. The Model 3's much closer to the opposite end of the price range than the Model T was, and it's not as if most of the available color options are exotic. Maybe it will be seen as more of a problem if they ever produce the SR, where the price increment will be larger.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

User avatar
dgpcolorado
Posts: 3098
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:56 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Dec 2011
Location: The Western Slope, Colorado

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:08 pm

With the earlier discussion about how reservations are holding up — they haven't really been needed for USA orders for some months — I found this tidbit from the quarterly report interesting:
In 2018, we delivered a total of 245,240 vehicles: 145,846 Model 3 and 99,394 Model S and X. To put our growth into perspective, we delivered almost as many vehicles in 2018 as we did in all prior years combined.

Our Q4 Model 3 deliveries were limited to mid- and higher-priced variants, cash/loan transactions, and North American customers only. More than three quarters of Model 3 orders in Q4 came from new customers, rather than reservation holders.


http://ir.teslamotors.com/news-releases ... ncing-2000

Since lot of Q4 Model 3 orders were from new customers, as opposed to reservation holders, it may bode well for sales going forward.
Blue 2012 SV Dec 2011 to Feb 2016
CPO 2014 Tesla S60 Mar 2016
One car, no ICE, at last!
Tesla Referral Code

GRA
Posts: 10184
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:54 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:With the earlier discussion about how reservations are holding up — they haven't really been needed for USA orders for some months — I found this tidbit from the quarterly report interesting:
In 2018, we delivered a total of 245,240 vehicles: 145,846 Model 3 and 99,394 Model S and X. To put our growth into perspective, we delivered almost as many vehicles in 2018 as we did in all prior years combined.

Our Q4 Model 3 deliveries were limited to mid- and higher-priced variants, cash/loan transactions, and North American customers only. More than three quarters of Model 3 orders in Q4 came from new customers, rather than reservation holders.


http://ir.teslamotors.com/news-releases ... ncing-2000

Since lot of Q4 Model 3 orders were from new customers, as opposed to reservation holders, it may bode well for sales going forward.

Or it may be people saw the opportunity to jump in and get one before the credit reduced, and there's no carry-over. We'll see.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

User avatar
dgpcolorado
Posts: 3098
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:56 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Dec 2011
Location: The Western Slope, Colorado

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:00 am

GRA wrote:Or it may be people saw the opportunity to jump in and get one before the credit reduced, and there's no carry-over. We'll see.
Nevertheless, those buyers had to be aware that the Model 3 existed and that suggests that the knowledge has spread a bit beyond the small world of EV fans who put in reservations. I'm inclined to find that encouraging.
Blue 2012 SV Dec 2011 to Feb 2016
CPO 2014 Tesla S60 Mar 2016
One car, no ICE, at last!
Tesla Referral Code

GRA
Posts: 10184
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:52 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:
GRA wrote:Or it may be people saw the opportunity to jump in and get one before the credit reduced, and there's no carry-over. We'll see.
Nevertheless, those buyers had to be aware that the Model 3 existed and that suggests that the knowledge has spread a bit beyond the small world of EV fans who put in reservations. I'm inclined to find that encouraging.

I do too, but it's only expanded to the somewhat larger group that read the NYT, WSJ and similar papers' auto/style pages. We're still a ways away from general consumer knowledge/interest, which is why a fairly substantial portion of the VW settlement as well as other state subsidies is now being used for education. But until the prices come down, the ranges increase and charging becomes more widely available and faster, I don't foresee any great leap in mass consumer interest, at least not at current U.S. gas prices (today's avg. $2.245). EA is building QC infrastructure usable for everything not a Tesla at a considerable rate, and that helps, but they're also not priced cheaper than gas in most places.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Zythryn
Posts: 1090
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 4:49 am

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:33 pm

Just how to you define “great leap”?

Some would say the last 8 years have already been a Great Leap Forward.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
Current owner of Model 3
http://www.netzeromn.com

GRA
Posts: 10184
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:23 pm

Zythryn wrote:Just how to you define “great leap”?

Some would say the last 8 years have already been a Great Leap Forward.

As I've stated elsewhere, I think when BEVs get to around 15% of total sales without subsidies or mandates, we'll have reached mass-market acceptance, and sales will take off. On the way to that, 5% and 10% will be significant waypoints. For now (and at any time during the past eight years), except at the luxury end of the market BEVs remain dependent on one or both, and you had/have articles such as
Nissan LEAF Sales Collapse In Ontario
https://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-sales-collapse-in-ontario/

In fact, not only the Nissan LEAF feels the withdrawal of the $14,000 CAD incentive

The latest sales reports from Canada reveals a collapse of electric car sales in Ontario – particularly the popular Nissan LEAF was shown as an example – after the province decided to end the generous incentive of $14,000 CAD through the Electric and Hydrogen Vehicle Incentive Program (EHVIP).

Nissan apparently sold some 695 LEAFs in Ontario in August, but without the support, only 10 were sold during two months – September and November. For comparison, in Quebec (where customers can count on some incentives) sales of LEAF stood at 283 in November. . . .

    “Green rebates still exist elsewhere in Canada, limited to British Columbia and Quebec, which means both provinces are enjoying an influx of EVs. That in turn lowers the amount of time that people in those provinces have to wait for their new cars, now that Ontarians aren’t interested.The Ontario government believes that by ending the Electric and Hydrogen Vehicle Incentive Program, the province will save around $1 billion over four years.”

So, while we've definitely come a fair distance, there's still further to go than we've come. If you believe IEVS, 2020 may be the tipping point year:
2020 Electric Vehicles: The Big Breakthrough Year For EVs
https://insideevs.com/lists/2020-electric-vehicles-new-evs/326439/

but as most of the vehicles listed are priced well above the affordable range, that's not going to do it. Estimates of when BEVs will have comparable price/performance to ICEs mostly cluster around 2025, and whether we'll have to wait until then or we reach 15% a year or two earlier (or later FTM), I'm not going to guess. As it is, I'm encouraged that 2019 will see the introduction of at least three semi-affordable 200+ mile BEVs to compete with the Bolt, and 2020 may see the first semi-affordable 200+ mile compact AWD BECUV, which (I hope) will kick the market past the next inflection point.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 602
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:40 pm

GRA wrote:
Zythryn wrote:Just how to you define “great leap”?

Some would say the last 8 years have already been a Great Leap Forward.

As I've stated elsewhere, I think when BEVs get to around 15% of total sales without subsidies or mandates, we'll have reached mass-market acceptance, and sales will take off. On the way to that, 5% and 10% will be significant waypoints. For now (and at any time during the past eight years), except at the luxury end of the market BEVs remain dependent on one or both, and you had/have articles such as
Nissan LEAF Sales Collapse In Ontario
https://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-sales-collapse-in-ontario/

In fact, not only the Nissan LEAF feels the withdrawal of the $14,000 CAD incentive

The latest sales reports from Canada reveals a collapse of electric car sales in Ontario – particularly the popular Nissan LEAF was shown as an example – after the province decided to end the generous incentive of $14,000 CAD through the Electric and Hydrogen Vehicle Incentive Program (EHVIP).

Nissan apparently sold some 695 LEAFs in Ontario in August, but without the support, only 10 were sold during two months – September and November. For comparison, in Quebec (where customers can count on some incentives) sales of LEAF stood at 283 in November. . . .

    “Green rebates still exist elsewhere in Canada, limited to British Columbia and Quebec, which means both provinces are enjoying an influx of EVs. That in turn lowers the amount of time that people in those provinces have to wait for their new cars, now that Ontarians aren’t interested.The Ontario government believes that by ending the Electric and Hydrogen Vehicle Incentive Program, the province will save around $1 billion over four years.”

So, while we've definitely come a fair distance, there's still further to go than we've come. If you believe IEVS, 2020 may be the tipping point year:
2020 Electric Vehicles: The Big Breakthrough Year For EVs
https://insideevs.com/lists/2020-electric-vehicles-new-evs/326439/

but as most of the vehicles listed are priced well above the affordable range, that's not going to do it. Estimates of when BEVs will have comparable price/performance to ICEs mostly cluster around 2025, and whether we'll have to wait until then or we reach 15% a year or two earlier (or later FTM), I'm not going to guess. As it is, I'm encouraged that 2019 will see the introduction of at least three semi-affordable 200+ mile BEVs to compete with the Bolt, and 2020 may see the first semi-affordable 200+ mile compact AWD BECUV, which (I hope) will kick the market past the next inflection point.


We're already past the inflection point on an s-curve. It's now strictly production constraints. A 40kwh Nissan leaf S for $26k (assuming federal tax credits expired and only NMAC incentives of $4k) already has a 5-year (Edmunds depreciation hit assumes the federal tax credit is taken) TCO of less than a Toyota Yaris.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

lorenfb
Posts: 2117
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:16 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:We're already past the inflection point on an s-curve. It's now strictly production constraints.


Really? Based on what automotive data from 2018, hopefully not the M3 marginal production of about 20K per month? You are aware
of the total U.S. auto sales for 2018, i.e. 17M. BEV sales, especially the M3, to most are laughable when viewed in the logical context.


Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:A 40kwh Nissan leaf S for $26k (assuming federal tax credits expired and only NMAC incentives of $4k) already has a 5-year (Edmunds depreciation hit assumes the federal tax credit is taken) TCO of less than a Toyota Yaris.


Why this mention, again, of TCO with regard to a BEV consumer purchase? It's as if the typical consumer uses a HP financial calculator
to determine TCO of a vehicle purchase based on the net present value of the future discounted cash flows. The sales in the U.S. of trucks
totally refutes any basis for a typical consumer even giving much consideration to the most basic vehicle cost in the decision process, i.e. MPG.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F (35C), min discharge (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 25%, temp < 105F

Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 602
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:29 am

lorenfb wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:We're already past the inflection point on an s-curve. It's now strictly production constraints.


Really? Based on what automotive data from 2018, hopefully not the M3 marginal production of about 20K per month? You are aware
of the total U.S. auto sales for 2018, i.e. 17M. BEV sales, especially the M3, to most are laughable when viewed in the logical context.


Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:A 40kwh Nissan leaf S for $26k (assuming federal tax credits expired and only NMAC incentives of $4k) already has a 5-year (Edmunds depreciation hit assumes the federal tax credit is taken) TCO of less than a Toyota Yaris.


Why this mention, again, of TCO with regard to a BEV consumer purchase? It's as if the typical consumer uses a HP financial calculator
to determine TCO of a vehicle purchase based on the net present value of the future discounted cash flows. The sales in the U.S. of trucks
totally refutes any basis for a typical consumer even giving much consideration to the most basic vehicle cost in the decision process, i.e. MPG.


You're mistaking a half-way point with a mindshare tipping point (aka change in sentiment).

Based on the AAA study showing that 20% of buyers wanting an EV for their next vehicle (up from 15% in 2017), consumer sentiment is already changing: https://newsroom.aaa.com/2018/05/1-in-5 ... c-vehicle/

Besides, the math is already there. The fact that people don't apply it now doesn't mean they won't realize it later.

6.1 million Prii's were sold. That's 6.1 million drivers who put up with slow and ugly, because it made financial sense to. EV's now give the buyers a chance to have a better AND faster drive AND save money. The only trade-off is range, styling, and form factor and those are being addressed with each subsequent model year.

The funny thing about the statistics showing how "poorly" the leaf and bolt sells (less than few months inventory - https://insideevs.com/chevy-volt-bolt-s ... mber-2018/, ) is that they still sell much better than many ICE models!
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

Return to “Other Electric Cars & Plug-In Hybrids”