GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:39 pm

GlennD wrote:
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:I'd think about this car just because, heck, who has a fuel cell? I recall my city even had a refueling station some years back. Too bad it's only available in a pitifully small market. Would certainly be a unique car to own.


It is a car for the blind! IT IS SO UGLY. As limited as my driving miles are I could live with an H2 car but not a large Ugly one. No one is buying or leasing the ugly car.

I measured my garage and a Tesla S would fit but it is just too large. My eGolf is just right for me. A Fiat 500E is too small. I guess there is a car size for every buyer.

In California there are so many 4th Gen Prius :o running around that we've been desensitized to the Mirai's ugliness :lol: . As noted elsewhere, in ascending order of ugliness I rate them Prime, Mirai and then regular Prius, although there's not a lot to choose between the last two. But the Clarity's better looking than the Mirai (not by much, IMO), as well as being a better car and offering better value for the money in almost every way.
Last edited by GRA on Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:46 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:
Zythryn wrote: You can't do this with hydrogen fueling.

Yet. Whether it will ever be cost-effective to do so is the question, not whether it's technically feasible - the Japanese are already running some dem/val level experiments, and those and others have been linked to in the H2 and Fuel Cells thread in the past..
Equipment for H2 FCV refueling installed: US$250,000.00
Equipment for BEV refueling installed: US$2,000.00 or less

Of course operating and fuel costs for the BEV home equipment is also likely 1/4 that of the H2 station or even less.

Zythryn is much closer to reality given these numbers.

As no one was suggesting that this was going to be a cost-effective option anytime soon (if ever), Zythryn and I have no disagreement. After all, sustainable H2 first has to be cost-competitive with fossil fuels when it's produced on an industrial scale at central facilities - if they can't do that, then there's no hope of it ever moving beyond that to production at individual home sites. They're still a long way away from achieving the former in the U.S., although in Europe where fossil fuels are taxed at much higher levels they're getting pretty close - they may even be there in one or two countries with lots of excess renewables. But as usual, discussion of such is OT here, and belongs in the H2 and FCEV thread where it's already been done to death.
Last edited by GRA on Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:58 pm

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:<snip>
Fuel cell tech is such a daydream right now I am really surprised toyota even bothered.

You could have said the same thing about Toyota 20 years ago with HEVs. They play a longer game than most American companies, and unlike the claims of many have always pursued battery development in parallel with FCEVs. They do seem to be just a few years away from introducing solid-state batteries, which is the sort of breakthrough they think it will take to make BEVs mainstream.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:35 pm

Via MT:
2016 TOYOTA MIRAI LONG-TERM VERDICT: PULLING OFF THE HYDROGEN HIGHWAY
http://www.motortrend.com/cars/toyota/mirai/2016/2016-toyota-mirai-review-long-term-verdict/

Interim reports can be found in this article, with links to the others at the end: http://www.motortrend.com/cars/toyota/mirai/2016/2016-toyota-mirai-update-5-review/
Last edited by GRA on Sun Sep 10, 2017 4:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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TonyWilliams
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:31 pm

Motor Trend magazine did a six month review of the Toyota H2 car:

KEY STATS ABOUT OUR TIME WITH A TOYOTA MIRAI:

Total distance: 10,497 miles
Total days: 179
Total H2: 171.249 kg
Total H2 cost: $2,703 (26 cents per mile)
Average fuel economy: 61.3 miles per kg (mpk)/62.5 mpg-e
EPA official mpk: 65.9
Average (mean) new range estimate after refueling: 272 miles (low: 254; high: 295)
Average (mean) total driving range (actual miles driven plus indicated range remaining): 279 miles (low: 239; high: 314)

*******

Any EV costs pennies per mile to operate. Typically about 4 cents per mile (12 cent per kWh average US COST divided by 3 miles per kWh consumption rate.

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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Sep 10, 2017 4:33 pm

TonyWilliams wrote:Motor Trend magazine did a six month review of the Toyota H2 car:

KEY STATS ABOUT OUR TIME WITH A TOYOTA MIRAI:

Total distance: 10,497 miles
Total days: 179
Total H2: 171.249 kg
Total H2 cost: $2,703 (26 cents per mile)
Average fuel economy: 61.3 miles per kg (mpk)/62.5 mpg-e
EPA official mpk: 65.9
Average (mean) new range estimate after refueling: 272 miles (low: 254; high: 295)
Average (mean) total driving range (actual miles driven plus indicated range remaining): 279 miles (low: 239; high: 314)

*******

Any EV costs pennies per mile to operate. Typically about 4 cents per mile (12 cent per kWh average US COST divided by 3 miles per kWh consumption rate.

As has been noted many, many times, PEV energy costs are as many pennies per mile as the cost of electricity divided by the miles/kWh (including charge/discharge efficiency). If you've got charging at home at low utility rates, great. If you don't and have to charge at for-profit public chargers, boo, it costs more than fossil fuel. H2, of course, remains far too expensive for now without subsidies compared to either gas/diesel or electricity, in the U.S. and most other countries. Unlike MT, people who buy or lease FCEVs do get subsidized H2 for three years, and most of them (85% of Mirais) are smart enough to realize that only leasing makes sense now, when the future price of H2 beyond three years is unknown. OTOH, the average household income of Mirai owners is $175k, so maybe the people who bought them don't much care about the future price of H2.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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TonyWilliams
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:02 am

We do know the future cost of hydrogen, because hydrogen isn't a new commodity.

We know what it costs to buy, and we have a really good idea what it costs to transport, liquefy, pressurize, cool, etc. There's not going to be a magic, low cost pumping method, or cooling method, or transport method.

Hydrogen cars, also, require 99.9% pure grade hydrogen, or the PEM might become damaged. Add even more cost.

I do think your last comment does make perfect sense... $175k income people just might not care. And there's not enough of them to support a hydrogen vehicle revolution, since the masses do care.

Another win for EVs.

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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:58 pm

TonyWilliams wrote:We do know the future cost of hydrogen, because hydrogen isn't a new commodity.

We know what it costs to buy, and we have a really good idea what it costs to transport, liquefy, pressurize, cool, etc. There's not going to be a magic, low cost pumping method, or cooling method, or transport method.

Oddly enough, lots of governments and companies around the world disagree that we've gone as far as we can on cost reductions, which is why so much money is being spent on research intended to reduce costs in all three areas. I do agree that there seems to be little room for cost reductions as far as PEV charging, and the only likely way to make for-profit charging equal or less expensive than fossil fuels is to let the utilities do it directly.

TonyWilliams wrote:Hydrogen cars, also, require 99.9% pure grade hydrogen, or the PEM might become damaged. Add even more cost.

A minimal additional increment, compared to the balance.

TonyWilliams wrote:I do think your last comment does make perfect sense... $175k income people just might not care. And there's not enough of them to support a hydrogen vehicle revolution, since the masses do care.

Another win for EVs.

I agree that the masses do care, which is why almost seven years after the introduction of mass-produced PEVs they still need to be bribed to buy or lease them. Other than the Tesla Model S/X, which definitely fall into the 'don't care how much it costs' camp, and have compelling performance in their own right. As it is, most forecasts are predicting TCO and initial cost comparability for BEVs with ICEs won't occur until about 2025, so there's still a ways to go there. What remains to be seen is how much and how quickly H2/FCEVs may also reduce their prices in this period - at the moment most estimates are that they won't reach cost comparability with ICEs until 2030 or so. But as always, "It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future." (I won't attempt to attribute this to anyone in particular, although current research finds the earliest written mention so far in a Danish book from 1948).

Once again, this has all been argued many, many times in the H2 and FCEV thread, so anyone with interest in wading through that is directed there.
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:43 am

GRA wrote:Oddly enough, lots of governments and companies around the world disagree that we've gone as far as we can on cost reductions, which is why so much money is being spent on research intended to reduce costs in all three areas. I do agree that there seems to be little room for cost reductions as far as PEV charging, and the only likely way to make for-profit charging equal or less expensive than fossil fuels is to let the utilities do it directly..


Excellent deduction... Hydrogen just needs tax payer funds thrown at it to "figure out" how to make it cheaper, but an EV that plugs in... no further cost reductions possible (even though it beats both hydrogen and gasoline per mile costs by HUUUUUUuuuuge margins).

Are you sure that you aren't paid by the fossil and hydrogen lobbies?

25 cents per mile and up - Toyota H2 car
10-25 cents per mile typical - Gasoline car
Pennies per mile - EV car

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:15 pm

I've moved my reply to Tony over to the H2 and FCEV thread, in order to try and keep this thread from further deteriorating into yet another cycle of the same endlessly repeated arguments on the general aspects of H2/FCEVs and PEVs common there: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=14744&start=3880#p505036
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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