TonyWilliams wrote:We do know the future cost of hydrogen, because hydrogen isn't a new commodity.
We know what it costs to buy, and we have a really good idea what it costs to transport, liquefy, pressurize, cool, etc. There's not going to be a magic, low cost pumping method, or cooling method, or transport method.
Oddly enough, lots of governments and companies around the world disagree that we've gone as far as we can on cost reductions, which is why so much money is being spent on research intended to reduce costs in all three areas. I do agree that there seems to be little room for cost reductions as far as PEV charging, and the only likely way to make for-profit charging equal or less expensive than fossil fuels is to let the utilities do it directly.
TonyWilliams wrote:Hydrogen cars, also, require 99.9% pure grade hydrogen, or the PEM might become damaged. Add even more cost.
A minimal additional increment, compared to the balance.
TonyWilliams wrote:I do think your last comment does make perfect sense... $175k income people just might not care. And there's not enough of them to support a hydrogen vehicle revolution, since the masses do care.
Another win for EVs.
I agree that the masses do care, which is why almost seven years after the introduction of mass-produced PEVs they still need to be bribed to buy or lease them. Other than the Tesla Model S/X, which definitely fall into the 'don't care how much it costs' camp, and have compelling performance in their own right. As it is, most forecasts are predicting TCO and initial cost comparability for BEVs with ICEs won't occur until about 2025, so there's still a ways to go there. What remains to be seen is how much and how quickly H2/FCEVs may also reduce their prices in this period - at the moment most estimates are that they won't reach cost comparability with ICEs until 2030 or so. But as always, "It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future." (I won't attempt to attribute this to anyone in particular, although current research finds the earliest written mention so far in a Danish book from 1948).
Once again, this has all been argued many, many times in the H2 and FCEV thread, so anyone with interest in wading through that is directed there.