GetOffYourGas
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:05 pm

GRA wrote:As it is, most forecasts are predicting TCO and initial cost comparability for BEVs with ICEs won't occur until about 2025


This has me scratching my head. Initial cost, sure. But TCO? There have been studies showing that a Leaf today has a lower TCO than a Versa over an 8-year period. And the Versa is pretty much the cheapest Nissan you can buy. All other cars will be even more expensive.

My 2012 Leaf will have a similar TCO to the 2010 Insight I had, at about 6 years of ownership. Again, the Insight was the cheapest hybrid you could buy at the time. It sipped fuel (I averaged 43MPG), and was low maintenance. If the Leaf beats that today, then what is this 2025 claim about?

I wonder what car would have a similar TCO to a Mirai. If you could actually own a Mirai, that is.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:59 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:
GRA wrote:As it is, most forecasts are predicting TCO and initial cost comparability for BEVs with ICEs won't occur until about 2025


This has me scratching my head. Initial cost, sure. But TCO? There have been studies showing that a Leaf today has a lower TCO than a Versa over an 8-year period. And the Versa is pretty much the cheapest Nissan you can buy. All other cars will be even more expensive.

My 2012 Leaf will have a similar TCO to the 2010 Insight I had, at about 6 years of ownership. Again, the Insight was the cheapest hybrid you could buy at the time. It sipped fuel (I averaged 43MPG), and was low maintenance. If the Leaf beats that today, then what is this 2025 claim about?

I wonder what car would have a similar TCO to a Mirai. If you could actually own a Mirai, that is.

You can own a Mirai (15% do; 85% lease), but not a Clarity. As to when TCO comparability will happen, there are numerous predictions floating around. They tend to cluster around the 2022-2025 range, although there are some as early as 2020. Here's one such study from Nov. 2016 done by Arthur D. Little, predicting 2022 for TCO crossover, but you can find many more, including more recent ones:http://www.adlittle.us/uploads/tx_extthoughtleadership/ADL_BEVs_vs_ICEVs_FINAL_November_292016.pdf

Another, 2016 Bloomberg Electric Vehicle Outlook via Wired, predicting TCO crossover in 2022: https://www.wired.com/2016/02/electric-car-revolution-now-scheduled-2022/

And so on. The 2017 Bloomberg report is still mostly behind a paywall, but you can read the overview here, which estimates 2025-2029 for initial cost comparability "in most countries": https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/#toc-download
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GetOffYourGas
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:42 am

GRA wrote:You can own a Mirai (15% do; 85% lease), but not a Clarity.


I missed that, thanks for pointing it out.

When talking TCO of EVs, we can fairly confidently calculate them today (historically, electricity price is extremely stable). Calculating TCO for a Mirai today is a total shot in the dark. Who knows what hydrogen will cost 5 years from now. Or what maintenance will cost (e.g. mandatory replacement of the hydrogen tanks after N years).

I'll read through the articles you linked, but what I posted stands. It's one data point, but it's my own so I know it's true.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

GetOffYourGas
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:47 am

Alright, this is emabarrasing. From the third paragraph of the wired article:

wired.com wrote:"By 2022," the report says, "the unsubsidized total cost of ownership of BEVs [battery electric vehicles] will fall below that of an internal combustion engine vehicle."


Unsubsidized. My numbers include the $7500 tax credit. That alone clears up my confusion.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

WetEV
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:02 am

GRA wrote:As to when TCO comparability will happen, there are numerous predictions floating around. They tend to cluster around the 2022-2025 range, although there are some as early as 2020.


TCO crossover depends on your personal situation.

Factors that make TCO crossover faster for BEVs: cheaper electric power, more expensive gasoline, cool climate, a Goldilocks commute (not too long, not too short) and so on.

A very few people hit BEV TCO crossover in 2011.

Add in non-economic factors like location of gasoline stations, convenience of home charging and so forth.

I don't see how a FCEV ever hits economic crossover.
WetEV
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GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:34 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:
GRA wrote:You can own a Mirai (15% do; 85% lease), but not a Clarity.


I missed that, thanks for pointing it out.

When talking TCO of EVs, we can fairly confidently calculate them today (historically, electricity price is extremely stable). Calculating TCO for a Mirai today is a total shot in the dark. Who knows what hydrogen will cost 5 years from now. Or what maintenance will cost (e.g. mandatory replacement of the hydrogen tanks after N years).

I'll read through the articles you linked, but what I posted stands. It's one data point, but it's my own so I know it's true.

I agree that TCO of FCEVs are a total crapshoot for now, and no one should even think of buying one in the anticipation that it will have lower total TCO than any other vehicle. Actually, I'm amazed that somewhere approaching 200 people in the U.S. have bought Mirais, given the unlikelihood of them being financially viable (absent continued fuel subsidies) beyond three years. Either these people are all in the 'can't be bothered with petty cash' group, or else they're financial illiterates. Given their average incomes the latter seems unlikely, but maybe their wealth is all inherited. Either that or they're someone like Jay Leno, buying them for inclusion in collections.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:39 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:As to when TCO comparability will happen, there are numerous predictions floating around. They tend to cluster around the 2022-2025 range, although there are some as early as 2020.


TCO crossover depends on your personal situation.

Factors that make TCO crossover faster for BEVs: cheaper electric power, more expensive gasoline, cool climate, a Goldilocks commute (not too long, not too short) and so on.

A very few people hit BEV TCO crossover in 2011.

Add in non-economic factors like location of gasoline stations, convenience of home charging and so forth.

I don't see how a FCEV ever hits economic crossover.

As noted in my immediately preceding post, they can't under current conditions, a situation which everyone concerned with expanding their market recognizes. But then no one who's buying them is too worried about whether they make the most (or any) financial sense short or long term, any more than people buying Model S's do. A Honda Fit (base MSRP $16,090) is all the car that most people who don't live on farms or ranches need, but most people buy cars based on more than just minimum need.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

smkettner
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:44 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:Calculating TCO for a Mirai today is a total shot in the dark. Who knows what hydrogen will cost 5 years from now. Or what maintenance will cost (e.g. mandatory replacement of the hydrogen tanks after N years).
Easy calculation for TCO break even. NEVER

Vehicle cost is higher, fuel costs more. Remember you are on your own after 3 years.
Any maintenance savings will never offset the vehicle + fuel.

That is the calculation using TODAY's costs. Any significant cost reduction is not just speculation but more in the realm of wishful thinking.

JMHO
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV

GetOffYourGas
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:40 am

GRA wrote:Either that or they're someone like Jay Leno, buying them for inclusion in collections.


There's always that. The Mirai certainly is a piece of history being, as I understand it, the first production FCEV you can buy and own. Even if they become immobile statues, there is still collector value in that. If you have enough money to throw at a collector item, that is (and far more than 200 Americans do have that kind of money).

smkettner wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:Calculating TCO for a Mirai today is a total shot in the dark. Who knows what hydrogen will cost 5 years from now. Or what maintenance will cost (e.g. mandatory replacement of the hydrogen tanks after N years).
Easy calculation for TCO break even. NEVER


You are moving the goalposts. I never said a thing about "break even". That requires something to compare it to. Compared to a Prius, never. Compared to a Ferrari (because, hey, why not - we can apparently set the posts wherever we want) - straight out of the gate, and the gap widens each year (ever looked into the cost of fueling and maintaining a Ferrari?).
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:43 pm

smkettner wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:Calculating TCO for a Mirai today is a total shot in the dark. Who knows what hydrogen will cost 5 years from now. Or what maintenance will cost (e.g. mandatory replacement of the hydrogen tanks after N years).
Easy calculation for TCO break even. NEVER

Vehicle cost is higher, fuel costs more. Remember you are on your own after 3 years.
Any maintenance savings will never offset the vehicle + fuel.

That is the calculation using TODAY's costs. Any significant cost reduction is not just speculation but more in the realm of wishful thinking.

JMHO

No one is arguing otherwise. As has been stated many, many times, the cost of FCEVs, sustainable H2 fuel and H2 fueling infrastructure must all decrease significantly to be cost-competitive with comparable fossil-fueled ICEs. BEVs are currently closer, but they too still have some years to go. All forecasts of future improvements are speculation - the only thing we can say for certain is that R&D and deployment funding for both FCEVs and BEVs and their related infrastructures is being directed to the required areas.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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