GetOffYourGas
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Feb 16, 2017 6:56 am

WetEV wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:Isn't that what a forum is designed for? Especially one titled "Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell"?


http://www.mytoyotamirai.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=2


Yes. Excuse me. I meant a thread titled "Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell".
~Brian

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finman100
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:53 am

I don't believe H2 has any future replacing fossil fuel. it continues using fossil fuel. and quite inefficiently (read "stupid") when compared to EVs.

http://evobsession.com/hydrogen-cars-vs-electric-cars-detailed-comparison-efficiency/

Where oh where do the laws of Physics get to be ignored? And the economics of fool cells? It's crazy to keep continuing down this money-pit, hole, whatever.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1107320_battery-electric-cars-cheaper-better-at-cutting-emissions-than-fuel-cells-stanford-study

When u have hydrogen 'fans' telling us: "not quite there", "maybe in 10 years", "just around the corner, wait for the breakthrough", it gets old.

Electric transport for the masses is here now and growing and it doesn't involve hydrogen.
Albany, Oregon
2014 Silver SV with charge/LED package. June 2014, I'm in the EV game!
30,200 miles
19.1 kWh on 100% charge (56ish Ah)
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GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:47 pm

WetEV wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:Isn't that what a forum is designed for? Especially one titled "Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell"?


http://www.mytoyotamirai.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=2

Unfortunately, that forum has been moribund for quite a while. I tried to get it going by asking for detailed performance info, but was told that there was an active Facebook group for the Mirai, and that was where everyone was (I don't do Facebook, and it's limited to owners in any case): http://www.mytoyotamirai.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=52 . About the only thing posted there for the past six months or so has been Russian Spam.

Not that that has anything to do with posting info on the Mirai (or any other electric vehicles) here, as this is the "Other Electric Cars and Plug-in Hybrids" topic, and FCEVs are electric cars.
Last edited by GRA on Thu Feb 16, 2017 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:01 pm

finman100 wrote:I don't believe H2 has any future replacing fossil fuel. it continues using fossil fuel. and quite inefficiently (read "stupid") when compared to EVs.

http://evobsession.com/hydrogen-cars-vs-electric-cars-detailed-comparison-efficiency/

Where oh where do the laws of Physics get to be ignored? And the economics of fool cells? It's crazy to keep continuing down this money-pit, hole, whatever.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1107320_battery-electric-cars-cheaper-better-at-cutting-emissions-than-fuel-cells-stanford-study

When u have hydrogen 'fans' telling us: "not quite there", "maybe in 10 years", "just around the corner, wait for the breakthrough", it gets old.

Electric transport for the masses is here now and growing and it doesn't involve hydrogen.

Depends on your definition of the masses. I don't consider 0.9% of the market (in the U.S.) after six years the masses, and that's only achievable thanks to large, continuing government subsidies, as remains the case with charging infrastructure. We'll see if the Bolt is the BEV that finally 'crosses the chasm' to mainstream acceptance. The only thing surprising about Norway's take rate, given that government subsidies essentially halve the price of the car compared to an ICE, is that it's only 30+% instead of close to 100%. And here's an IEVS article from today, which again demonstrates that subsidies are still essential for PEVs:
China Faces 74% Drop In January EV Sales As Incentive Uncertainty Rules
http://insideevs.com/china-faces-74-dro ... nty-rules/

I could also point out the drop-off the cliff in PEV sales in Georgia when that state's incentives were repealed, and so on ad nauseum.

As to the efficiency argument, that one's been done to death (as have most of the general FCEV/BEV arguments). I've never said that FCEVs were as efficient as batteries (although FCEVs producing both propulsive power and cabin heat certainly approach a BEV doing the same), only that I don't think that's the main priority for mainstream buyers, which is obvious if you look at the vehicles they're actually buying. That you believe that efficiency is of primary importance to the average buyer is fine, but until they demonstrate this by their purchases, it's simply not true beyond a small segment of the market. After all, if efficiency were the primary requirement, every one in the U.S. in 2008 would have been buying a Prius.

As to continuing to use fossil fuel, as I've pointed out many, many times, it makes no sense to consider a switch to FCEVs unless a substantial portion of the H2 (eventually all of it) is produced sustainably. Fortunately, all the countries and states introducing FCEVs are aware of this, and have imposed some kind of RFS to bring it about, just as most of them have imposed an RFS for electricity production (you know this, as you've made this argument numerous times before yet continue to ignore the examples I've provided demonstrating that).
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:41 pm

GRA wrote:As to the efficiency argument, that one's been done to death (as have most of the general FCEV/BEV arguments). I've never said that FCEVs were as efficient as batteries (although FCEVs producing both propulsive power and cabin heat certainly approach them), only that I don't think that's the main priority for mainstream buyers, which is obvious if you look at the vehicles they're actually buying. That you believe that efficiency is of prime importance to the average buyer is fine, but until they demonstrate this by their purchases, it's simply not true beyond a small segment of the market. After all, if efficiency were the primary requirement, every one in the U.S. in 2008 would have been buying a Prius.
You are confusing gasoline with electricity and completely ignoring the physics of the situation, just as finman100 has said. We are NOT talking about gasoline, which is currently cheaper than bottled water and abundant in the market today.

Rather, we are talking about running the transportation system off of electricity which will need to come from infrastructure which currently DOES NOT EXIST. Simply put, the ONLY possibility to make a WIDESPREAD transition to an electricity-based transportation system is to MINIMIZE the amount of electricity which will be needed. BEVs achieve this by approaching unity energy efficiency and thereby allowing the electricity needed to fuel these new vehicles to be produced on a typical roof using PV. H2 FCVs fail this requirement. As a result it is virtually guaranteed that H2 FCVs will NEVER achieve widespread acceptance UNLESS the H2 comes from cheap fossil fuels. IT DOESN'T MATTER whether the CA government or ANY OTHER government WANTS the H2 to come from sustainable sources. That approach CANNOT BE RAMPED UP because of the simple physics involved.

Bottom line: CA is WASTING extremely valuable taxpayer money and extremely valuable natural resources by building H2 fueling infrastructure and subsidizing H2 FCVs.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
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GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Feb 16, 2017 5:02 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:As to the efficiency argument, that one's been done to death (as have most of the general FCEV/BEV arguments). I've never said that FCEVs were as efficient as batteries (although FCEVs producing both propulsive power and cabin heat certainly approach them), only that I don't think that's the main priority for mainstream buyers, which is obvious if you look at the vehicles they're actually buying. That you believe that efficiency is of prime importance to the average buyer is fine, but until they demonstrate this by their purchases, it's simply not true beyond a small segment of the market. After all, if efficiency were the primary requirement, every one in the U.S. in 2008 would have been buying a Prius.
You are confusing gasoline with electricity and completely ignoring the physics of the situation, just as finman100 has said. We are NOT talking about gasoline, which is currently cheaper than bottled water and abundant in the market today. <snip>

No, Reg, I'm saying that most people don't care what powers their car, only that it meets certain requirements, only one of which is energy efficiency. In any case, we've had all these arguments so many times before, and I'm simply not going to get into them again. Those of you who are convinced that H2 and FCEVs simply make no sense will continue to do so, and those of us who consider them a potentially valuable tool in making the transition to a sustainable future will continue to see how things develop, and are willing to let California and other states/ countries make investments in same which may potentially all be thrown away, just as much of the government money invested in public charging has been. The amounts are pretty small in any case, i.e. $200 million over 10 years for California H2 fuel stations. Now, if you want to discuss some serious government money potentially being wasted, i.e. California building a high-speed rail line between S.F and L.A., its route, how it's being funded, etc. and the total unknown cost (reduced to only $68 billion in 2011 from $98 billion), with major budget overruns already, that's a different matter: http://www.latimes.com/local/california ... story.html

By comparison, $20 million/yr. for 10 years is pocket change for us.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Feb 16, 2017 5:25 pm

GRA wrote:No, Reg, I'm saying that most people don't care what powers their car, only that it meets certain requirements, only one of which is energy efficiency.
And what I'm saying is that because of the physics involved and the reality of resource limitations, IT DOESN"T MATTER WHAT CAR BUYERS CARE ABOUT. They will not have a choice because there CANNOT be a widespread transition to H2 FCVs UNLESS they are fueled by fossil fuels. In other words, your argument has no bearing on the topic since H2 FCVs fueled from sustainable sources are dead in the water already.

Even for BEVs, the transition will be limited by simple economics. As more people choose BEVs over gasoline cars, the existing electricity infrastructure will be strained which will put upward pressure on the cost of electricity, making BEVs temporarily less attractive. Likewise, the existing gasoline infrastructure will be relieved, which will put downward pressure on the cost of gasoline. It will take time for the two sets of infrastructure (electricity and gasoline) to adjust to the new normal which will need to happen for most transportation to run on electricity.

People purchase or lease H2 FCVs today because OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY is being used to pay for their fuel. People purchase BEVs today because THEY PAY FOR THEIR OWN FUEL and it is cheaper in many locations (and when it is not, that slows sales.

You can keep ignoring the physics but it will always be there blocking ANY possibility of widespread adoption of H2 FCVs.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
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GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Feb 16, 2017 5:30 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:No, Reg, I'm saying that most people don't care what powers their car, only that it meets certain requirements, only one of which is energy efficiency.
And what I'm saying is that because of the physics involved and the reality of resource limitations, IT DOESN"T MATTER WHAT CAR BUYERS CARE ABOUT. They will not have a choice because there CANNOT be a widespread transition to H2 FCVs UNLESS they are fueled by fossil fuels. In other words, your argument has no bearing on the topic since H2 FCVs fueled from sustainable sources are dead in the water already. <snip>

Reg, if they're DoA already, then there's absolutely no need for you to expend any effort on trying to point out all their issues, as the market will handle it. I don't think we're to the point where we can say so for certain, any more than we're to the point with BEVs where we can say they're viable without subsidies (we're closer, obviously). As to FCEV owners using some other people's money to help pay for them, sure, just as BEVs still require a hefty dose of other people's money to pay for them. Neither is yet capable of standing on their own.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Feb 16, 2017 5:45 pm

GRA wrote:As to FCEV owners using some other people's money to help pay for them, sure, just as BEVs still require a hefty dose of other people's money to pay for them. Neither is yet capable of standing on their own.
Again, you try to pretend that H2 FCVs are similar to BEVs. Let's see, I got a 20% tax credit on the purchase price of my BEV five years ago. $7000. That's it. H2 FCVs are sold for about $80,000 LESS than their manufacturing cost. (The manufacturer can do this because of approximately $140,000 worth of clean fuel credits.) Then the owner gets $15,000 worth of fuel for free. Finally, the government is spending over $10,000 per vehicle for infrastructure.

Bottom line: The government is paying over 20 times as much OPM for each H2 FCV than for each BEV. All for a dead-end project. It's sad.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

lorenfb
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Feb 16, 2017 9:45 pm

GRA wrote:Depends on your definition of the masses. I don't consider 0.9% of the market (in the U.S.) after six years the masses, and that's only achievable thanks to large, continuing government subsidies, as remains the case with charging infrastructure. We'll see if the Bolt is the BEV that finally 'crosses the chasm' to mainstream acceptance. The only thing surprising about Norway's take rate, given that government subsidies essentially halve the price of the car compared to an ICE, is that it's only 30+% instead of close to 100%.


Yes, reality always adds a "sobering" insight to the arguments!

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