WetEV
Posts: 1740
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Feb 16, 2017 9:56 pm

GRA wrote:BEVs still require a hefty dose of other people's money to pay for them.


I'm not sure that this is true. EVs are almost past that.

Tesla, if happy as a high end car company, could be profitable selling expensive cars. Sure, not for everyone. A large niche.

The battery cost keeps falling... There is a market for a low end car as well. A city range car like a Leaf isn't much more expensive to manufacture than a gasoline car. More convenient, less maintenance, lower cost fuel, more reliable and generally nicer to drive. Sure, not for everyone. A larger niche. Even without the subsidies, I think would survive.

The battery cost keeps falling. The top end expands down, the low end expands up. Sure, EV market share is only growing at 30% or so a year. Be another 3 or 4 years before tops 2% of the market. Perhaps twice as long with end of subsidies.

I do see a reason to spend some money on developing FCEVs. Not for automotive use, but for light aviation. Develop in cars as is better development platform.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

User avatar
TonyWilliams
Posts: 10025
Joined: Sat Feb 19, 2011 1:48 am
Location: San Diego
Contact: Website

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:03 am

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:BEVs still require a hefty dose of other people's money to pay for them.


I'm not sure that this is true..


With somebody who spends as much time pimping for hydrogen while taking cheap shots at EVs as GRA does, he *has* to make statements like this.

Why? Because hydrogen cars and hydrogen infrastructure will be on the government teet for a VERY long time. The pie-in-the-sky hydrogen projections from the past 30 years will continue for the next 30 years. Always right around the corner, if only more government cash were thrown at it.

Frankly, hydrogen will not likely be a cost effective platform compared to EVs in my life time (using a non-subsidized cost model, not price to the consumer).

That singular hydrogen advantage of faster refueling time will erode over time. Hydrogen refueling isn't likely to increase in speed at the current 10,000psi / 700 bar method at -25C temperature. It could be a few minutes, or 10-15 minutes to add hundreds of miles of range, based on current infrastructure.

Future EVs are on track to charge at over 300kW, adding 5kWh every minute (15-20 miles per minute) which could be 100 miles added in 5-10 minutes, at least at a low state of charge.

It's not too difficult to see who wins.

lorenfb
Posts: 1315
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:52 am

WetEV wrote:Tesla, if happy as a high end car company, could be profitable selling expensive cars.


Where're the data to support this? Given the price point that Tesla sells the S/X and their volumes, there's no
possible profitability when R&D, GA & Sales are considered. In the long term Tesla can't survive without a high
volume vehicle, e.g. Model E, to amortize fixed costs and to obtain lower parts costs for the higher end vehicles.

WetEV
Posts: 1740
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Fri Feb 17, 2017 2:04 pm

lorenfb wrote:
WetEV wrote:Tesla, if happy as a high end car company, could be profitable selling expensive cars.


Where're the data to support this? Given the price point that Tesla sells the S/X and their volumes, there's no
possible profitability when R&D, GA & Sales are considered.


Data is from Tesla's financial reports. Read them carefully.

Tesla's R&D is excessive because of Tesla's strategy.
So is a large fraction of GA.

Price point would need to go up, but not very far. Volume might drop, but not by much. People buying $120k cars are not very price sensitive. Or the battery cost could come down, which is happening even without the Gigafactory.

Assuming, of course, that some other car company doesn't want to buy this market by producing a similar car and undercutting Tesla on price. Or, for that matter, just doing a hostile takeover, as the stock price of such a car company would be rather lower than Tesla's.

From the point of view of electric cars, Audi/Porche/Maserati/Jaguar/Aston Martin/Mercedes-Benz/Ferrari/Bentley or someone else might take over the high end electric car leadership, and the market niche would remain. Technology based niche, not "Tesla" name based. The technology can be copied.

As you can guess, I'm not a Tesla stockholder. While the Tesla S cars are great, companies selling expensive ICE cars are taking notice and will copy the best parts of Tesla's cars. Tesla's Model 3 strategy depends on things like the Bolt, Leaf 2 and similar all being disasters, or focused too far down market. Tesla's survival with this strategy depends on winning all the battles and the war as well. Any loss could be fatal to the company. Any costly victory could be fatal. But high end electric cars are here to stay.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

GRA
Posts: 7367
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Fri Feb 17, 2017 4:28 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:BEVs still require a hefty dose of other people's money to pay for them.


I'm not sure that this is true. EVs are almost past that.

Tesla, if happy as a high end car company, could be profitable selling expensive cars. Sure, not for everyone. A large niche.

The battery cost keeps falling... There is a market for a low end car as well. A city range car like a Leaf isn't much more expensive to manufacture than a gasoline car. More convenient, less maintenance, lower cost fuel, more reliable and generally nicer to drive. Sure, not for everyone. A larger niche. Even without the subsidies, I think would survive.

The battery cost keeps falling. The top end expands down, the low end expands up. Sure, EV market share is only growing at 30% or so a year. Be another 3 or 4 years before tops 2% of the market. Perhaps twice as long with end of subsidies.

I do see a reason to spend some money on developing FCEVs. Not for automotive use, but for light aviation. Develop in cars as is better development platform.

Tesla Model S/X are the only BEVs that there's little doubt could survive without subsidies, but as they're luxury products where value for money is measured in entirely different units, that has little bearing on mass market viability. While I'm personally in favor of eliminating all subsidies now, if ever there was no excuse for subsidizing AFVs, Tesla and similarly priced cars provide it. We all hope that BEVs will reach the point where they will be profitable without subsidies, and acceptable to the mass market. Maybe the Bolt will be it, but I also believe that there's room for much less expensive, local BEVs. More range than the 1st gen. cars, but they don't need 200+ miles. Whether that point is at 125 or 150 miles AER, and $15/$20/$25k remains to be seen. The Ionic BEV's a step in the right direction, though I expect PHEVs like the Prime will be more successful. Ideally, Hyundai would price the PHEV Ionic similarly to the BEv version, so they can go head to head.

I do think FCEVs will find a definite niche in long-haul trucking and motor coaches, maybe general aviation and commuter/regional airliners, and possibly CHP home units. As to their viability for LDVs, it's solely a matter of cost (for them, the fuel and the fueling infrastructure) - they've already got the performance characteristics to replace ICEs for general use. Whether BEVs develop to that point more rapidly than FCEVs get their costs down remains the big unknown.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 7367
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Fri Feb 17, 2017 4:40 pm

Well, gentlemen, you've once again sucked me into an another round of the endless repeated arguments on FCEVS and BEVs, where no one has anything new to say but just regurgitates the same points for the umpteenth time. I've managed to mostly avoid doing so in the FCEV and H2 thread, but somehow let my guard down in this thread, which should be specific to the Mirai. In any case, this particular round ends here, at least as far as my participation in it goes, and will limit myself to Mirai announcements and discussion.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 7367
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:03 pm

TonyWilliams wrote:
WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:BEVs still require a hefty dose of other people's money to pay for them.


I'm not sure that this is true..


With somebody who spends as much time pimping for hydrogen while taking cheap shots at EVs as GRA does, he *has* to make statements like this. <snip>

Tony, 'pimping' implies that I benefit in some way, financially or otherwise. I have no financial interests in FCEVs (or BEVs, PHEVs, ICEs, electricity/fossil/H2 providers or any company involved with them, beyond possibly some mutual funds where I'm unaware of what stocks they hold), nor do I particularly care which ZEV tech(s) succeed. So how am I 'pimping'? If either of us has a direct financial interest in the success of one of the techs, it's not me. You can't say the same, as you have a business that caters to PEVs. So, let's not be throwing around terms like 'pimping', unless you can provide some evidence backing that up.

Oh, and how is pointing out that BEVs still require and receive subsidies a cheap shot? It's a fact, no more or less. As I've said many times, I'd prefer to see all AFV subsidies removed, now.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Firetruck41
Posts: 501
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:36 am
Leaf Number: 408264
Location: SW Washington State

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:26 pm

GRA wrote:
TonyWilliams wrote:
WetEV wrote:
I'm not sure that this is true..


With somebody who spends as much time pimping for hydrogen while taking cheap shots at EVs as GRA does, he *has* to make statements like this. <snip>

Tony, 'pimping' implies that I benefit in some way, financially or otherwise. I have no financial interests in FCEVs (or BEVs, PHEVs, ICEs, electricity/fossil/H2 providers or any company involved with them, beyond possibly some mutual funds where I'm unaware of what stocks they hold), nor do I particularly care which ZEV tech(s) succeed. So how am I 'pimping'? .

Ego?
8/2015- New to me 12bar 2013 SV w/QC package and 37k miles

lorenfb
Posts: 1315
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:11 pm

WetEV wrote:Tesla, if happy as a high end car company, could be profitable selling expensive cars.


lorenfb wrote:Where're the data to support this? Given the price point that Tesla sells the S/X and their volumes, there's no
possible profitability when R&D, GA & Sales are considered.


WetEV wrote:Tesla's R&D is excessive because of Tesla's strategy.
So is a large fraction of GA.


Yes, all companies require some form of ongoing R&D & GA to sustain a market position, but Tesla is presently
unprofitable and will continue to be so without a volume vehicle. Those costs will not be significantly reduced
at Tesla's present sales growth rate. Even with massive ZEV credits, Tesla is not profitable.

WetEV wrote:Price point would need to go up, but not very far. Volume might drop, but not by much. People buying $120k cars are not very price sensitive. Or the battery cost could come down, which is happening even without the Gigafactory.


That's your guess!

WetEV wrote:Assuming, of course, that some other car company doesn't want to buy this market by producing a similar car and undercutting Tesla on price. Or, for that matter, just doing a hostile takeover, as the stock price of such a car company would be rather lower than Tesla's.


Why would any company wish to takeover Tesla? There's no key "rent", technology, or barrier to entry that makes
Tesla a desirable asset. Their only real ecosystem are the SCs. Besides, the cost to replicate the SCs would not
be burdensome for any of the major automotive OEMs.

WetEV wrote:From the point of view of electric cars, Audi/Porche/Maserati/Jaguar/Aston Martin/Mercedes-Benz/Ferrari/Bentley or someone else might take over the high end electric car leadership, and the market niche would remain. Technology based niche, not "Tesla" name based. The technology can be copied.


Right, Tesla has no key market protection!

WetEV wrote:The Model 3 strategy depends on things like the Bolt, Leaf 2 and similar all being disasters, or focused too far down market. Tesla's survival with this strategy depends on winning all the battles and the war as well.


That's a naive market strategy, i.e. hoping/planning that all the competition failures will be the only reason for your success.

arnis
Posts: 726
Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 3:21 pm
Delivery Date: 23 Jul 2014
Leaf Number: 015896
Location: Estonia, Europe

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Feb 18, 2017 6:12 am

Tesla is profitable now. And has been for some time now.
Every single car they sell makes a lot of money - this is called profit.
The fact that all profit is used up for expansion doesn't make a company unprofitable.
Even if more than 100% of profits is used for expansion.
Short range EVs <30kWh -- Medium range: 30-60kWh -- Long range: >60kWh
Charging: Trickle <3kW -- Normal 3-22kW -- Fast 50-100kW -- Supercharging >100kW

Return to “Other Electric Cars & Plug-In Hybrids”