WetEV
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:29 am

GRA wrote:BEVs are currently closer, but they too still have some years to go. All forecasts of future improvements are speculation - the only thing we can say for certain is that R&D and deployment funding for both FCEVs and BEVs and their related infrastructures is being directed to the required areas.


Closer? Depends on personal circumstances and assumptions about the future.

Suppose you live in a cool climate, with cheap electric power, charge at home, more expensive gasoline, have a 60 mile or less round trip commute and buy a 38kWh Leaf S for MSRP $30k. Compare with a Honda Fit. also at MSRP 16k. Note that the Leaf is a clearly nicer car.

As there are local to me 2011 Leafs that lost the first capacity bar at over 90k miles, the current Leaf might lose 30% at 300k miles with similar climate and care. The Fit will have hade a engine rebuild before then. Over 300k miles, the Leaf will use $2250 in electric power @3cents per kWh 4 miles/kWh. The Fit will use $22,500 in $3/gallon gasoline, assuming 40MPG. Both will need tires, etc. The Fit will need oil changes, trips to gas station, and generally more time in the shop. How much is that extra bother worth?

Looks to me like the BEV wins big. Before subsidies. You have admitted this in the past, why the change?

Clearly if you live in a hot climate even with a TMS, have cheap gas, expensive electric power, too long or too short of a commute, or need to drive long distances then the ICE wins.

Unlike a fuel cell car, BEVs can break even today. I don't see how a fuel cell car will ever break even,
WetEV
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:54 am

WetEV wrote:
Unlike a fuel cell car, BEVs can break even today. I don't see how a fuel cell car will ever break even,


It seems not everyone's aware of hydrogen's issues.

1) The fuel cells have a lifespan, previously it was 75k miles worth of electricity generated. Not sure if they've improved on that yet.
2) The carbon fiber overwrap tank has an expiration date. Toyota's Mirai is set to 14 years. You are NOT permitted to drive the vehicle if the tank age is exceeded.
3) hydrogen embrittlement of metal is known phenomenon, that's why the tanks aren't metal. But the valves are. The valve life is unknown for now, but if the tank needs to be replaced, then the valves will too.

Hydrogen Fuel Cell maintenance will most likely be more expensive than BEV.


Edit: Ooops!! Mis-read "break even" for "break down"! Sorry!
[2013 leaf traded for 2016 leaf S30:
build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
1 May 2017 - 7300 miles & 363 GIDs
6 Sep 2017 - 13k miles & 359 GIDs]

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:14 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:BEVs are currently closer, but they too still have some years to go. All forecasts of future improvements are speculation - the only thing we can say for certain is that R&D and deployment funding for both FCEVs and BEVs and their related infrastructures is being directed to the required areas.

Closer? Depends on personal circumstances and assumptions about the future. <snip>

I am talking about the ability to completely replace ICEs for general use without direct subsidies or special cases, as do the initial and TCO break-even studies. That a BEV may win out in some cases for limited use now is true, but not relevant to that. A Fit can be most people's sole car, taking them wherever they need to go whenever they need to, and no BEV can be, yet - as you say, personal circumstances and assumptions are still determinant for them.

Comparable cost assumes comparable capability. ICEs didn't become the choice of just about everyone instead of BEVs (except for a few niche uses) a century ago because they were subsidized, it was because they, along with their supporting infrastructure, offered people more general transportation utility and value. BEVs have a cost advantage over FCEVs at the moment, and also (esp. Tesla) an infrastructure advantage, but not the basic capability advantage. Most of the remaining advantages/disadvantages for each are case-specific. At the moment, for the vast majority the fossil-fueled ICE still rules.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:18 pm

GRA wrote:I am talking about the ability to completely replace ICEs for general use without direct subsidies or special cases, as do the initial and TCO break-even studies.


Cars never fully replaced horses. You are moving the finish line.

I'm reminded of my neighbor near Boston. Had flown many places, but had never driven past Springfield MA. A BEV could have done that and been better than an ICE car.

TCO studies make a long list of assumptions, some of which are likely badly wrong, and fail to match the range of human wants and needs.


GRA wrote:That a BEV may win out in some cases for limited use now is true


I'm happy to see BEV uptake increasing. The special cases get more common as batteries get cheaper and larger.
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lorenfb
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:37 am

WetEV wrote: TCO studies make a long list of assumptions, some of which are likely badly wrong, and fail to match the range of human wants and needs.


Yes, and TCO assumes that consumers are rational when making purchasing decisions, i.e. a naive assumption.
That even applies presently, notwithstanding a FCEV, even when considering a BEV verses another ICEV.

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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:14 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:I am talking about the ability to completely replace ICEs for general use without direct subsidies or special cases, as do the initial and TCO break-even studies.


Cars never fully replaced horses. You are moving the finish line.

Oh, come now. Sure, some people still ride horses for pleasure, but for business ICEs rule the roost, for anyone who can afford one. Draft animals are a tiny niche in the U.S. I might add, however, that ICEs almost universally replaced both horses and BEVs (British milk floats ans similar exceptions aside) as delivery vehicles a century ago, precisely because they could be used on all routes, not just the particular ones each was most efficient for. Specialization only makes sense for those who can afford it.

WetEV wrote:I'm reminded of my neighbor near Boston. Had flown many places, but had never driven past Springfield MA. A BEV could have done that and been better than an ICE car.

Which is again a limited use in specific conditions. There's no doubt whatsoever that a BEV can be a better choice in a specific, limited set of conditions, but until the general public thinks so, adoption rates will remain limited.

WetEV wrote:TCO studies make a long list of assumptions, some of which are likely badly wrong, and fail to match the range of human wants and needs.
All studies make assumptions, including the ones that favor BEVs (like the examples you've given). The study I'm most interested in is the one where the general public votes with their wallets without direct to the individual economic incentives or penalties that push them any particular direction. We've been running that study for over a century now, with consistent results favoring fossil-fueled ICEs. That hasn't yet begun to change, although we both certainly hope it will in the not too distant future. In the interim, it remains necessary to provide subsidies and perks on the one side, and penalties and mandates on the other, to boost ANY AFV tech and provide a disincentive for the purchase of ICEs, because AFVs are as yet unable to compete generally with ICEs on either initial cost or TCO grounds.

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:That a BEV may win out in some cases for limited use now is true

I'm happy to see BEV uptake increasing. The special cases get more common as batteries get cheaper and larger.

Do you believe I have any disagreement with this statement? As always, price and capability are the determining factors to adoption. BEVs aren't yet able to compete head-to-head with ICEs on price, capability and infrastructure; FCEVs are even further away on price and infrastructure, but closer on capability. Any AFV must improve in these areas to replace fossil-fueled ICEs.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

lorenfb
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:41 pm

GRA wrote:BEVs aren't yet able to compete head-to-head with ICEs on price, capability and infrastructure; FCEVs are even further away on price and infrastructure, but closer on capability. Any AFV must improve in these areas to replace fossil-fueled ICEs.


Hardly a profound revelation, i.e. it's been mentioned ad nauseam in this thread - basic Marketing 101!

WetEV
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:32 am

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:You are moving the finish line.

Oh, come now. Sure, some people still ride horses for pleasure,


And for businesses, such as ranching. Horses didn't become obsolete all at once, it was over a period of time. First, ICE was a niche, then expanded to half, then horses were a niche. A process, not an event.

GRA wrote:Which is again a limited use in specific conditions. There's no doubt whatsoever that a BEV can be a better choice in a specific, limited set of conditions, but until the general public thinks so, adoption rates will remain limited.


In other words, until BEVs hit 50% you will dismiss them.

Once again, FCEVs are more expensive in all cases. Not only now, but for the foreseeable future. Hydrogen is an expensive fuel mostly from fossil fuel sources, and the renewable hydrogen is even more expensive than gasoline and will likely stay more expensive than electric power. FCEVs don't have a niche, and will not have a niche.


GRA wrote:The study I'm most interested in is the one where the general public votes with their wallets without direct to the individual economic incentives or penalties that push them any particular direction. We've been running that study for over a century now, with consistent results favoring fossil-fueled ICEs.


Oh, but there is a huge economic incentive to ICEs. Free dumping of waste products into the atmosphere.
WetEV
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:30 am

WetEV wrote:Oh, but there is a huge economic incentive to ICEs. Free dumping of waste products into the atmosphere.


The economic consequences of which are paid for in part by ObamaCare.
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:05 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:You are moving the finish line.

Oh, come now. Sure, some people still ride horses for pleasure,


And for businesses, such as ranching. Horses didn't become obsolete all at once, it was over a period of time. First, ICE was a niche, then expanded to half, then horses were a niche. A process, not an event.

Sure, they're still used for ranching in some areas (although Jeeps and ATVs now do a lot of what horses used to do). But for personal and commercial transportation, horses were almost completely replaced within two decades in this country.

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:Which is again a limited use in specific conditions. There's no doubt whatsoever that a BEV can be a better choice in a specific, limited set of conditions, but until the general public thinks so, adoption rates will remain limited.

In other words, until BEVs hit 50% you will dismiss them.

OFCS, at the end of December mass-produced PEVs will have been available in the U.S. for seven full years, and yet only in this year have they reached 1% of total sales, despite large subsidies and other incentives. In California, which has accounted for 40-50% of all U.S. PEV sales/leases, the HOV lane stickers are worth more to the typical PEV buyer (given their high incomes raising the time value of their commutes) than the federal tax credit and state rebate combined, and yet we're still allowing individuals with incomes up to $150k (and couples up to $300k) to get the state rebate. How else can you interpret these facts, except to say that the general public remains indifferent to PEVs? For one thing, they still can't afford most of them.

Among other milestones, I've said before that I regard 5% of total sales, not 50%, as semi-significant, a level never achieved by HEVs here despite then-high gas prices, 10% as significant, and around 15% will be the point at which any AFV tech can be considered mainstream, assuming that no direct to the buyer incentives are serving as a thumb on the scale. We have years to go to get to any of these, and much of greater future adoption remains driven by government mandates. After all, if the public were adopting these techs on their own, there would be no need for governments in Norway, the Netherlands, France, the U.K., China and India to impose bans on sales of ICEs after a certain date - people would simply stop buying them, just as they stopped buying typewriters in anything other that trivial numbers.

I'm hardly the only AFV supporter to recognize this - here's an ABG review of the new LEAF that makes essentially the same points: https://www.autoblog.com/2017/09/20/2018-nissan-leaf-quick-spin-another-fork-stab-into-the-light-s/

WetEV wrote:Once again, FCEVs are more expensive in all cases. Not only now, but for the foreseeable future. Hydrogen is an expensive fuel mostly from fossil fuel sources, and the renewable hydrogen is even more expensive than gasoline and will likely stay more expensive than electric power. FCEVs don't have a niche, and will not have a niche.

As I have stated repeatedly, everyone involved recognizes that sustainable H2 and FCEVs must significantly reduce their costs for them to be viable replacements for fossil-fueled ICEs, which is why there's so much R&D being done in those areas. When or if they will succeed in doing so is unknown. As to having a niche, FCEVs already have one or two (high usage material handling equipment for one), but not yet in personal transportation.

As we've now repeated the same arguments several times, I'm returning to Mirai-specific posts here. All those who wish to see these arguments in more detail may find them in the H2 and FCEVs topic, where they've been endlessly repeated.

WetEV wrote:Oh, but there is a huge economic incentive to ICEs. Free dumping of waste products into the atmosphere.

Sure, among many other incentives, and the public doesn't much care as air quality has improved so much since the '60s. In countries like China and India the public does care, because they're back where we were several decades ago as far as smog, but even there when given the choice the public is buying ICEs, e.g.
China car dilemma: Beijing wants electric, buyers want SUVs
https://phys.org/news/2017-04-china-car-dilemma-beijing-electric.html
Last edited by GRA on Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:43 pm, edited 5 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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