WetEV wrote: GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:You are moving the finish line.
Oh, come now. Sure, some people still ride horses for pleasure,
And for businesses, such as ranching. Horses didn't become obsolete all at once, it was over a period of time. First, ICE was a niche, then expanded to half, then horses were a niche. A process, not an event.
Sure, they're still used for ranching in some areas (although Jeeps and ATVs now do a lot of what horses used to do). But for personal and commercial transportation, horses were almost completely replaced within two decades in this country.
GRA wrote:Which is again a limited use in specific conditions. There's no doubt whatsoever that a BEV can be a better choice in a specific, limited set of conditions, but until the general public thinks so, adoption rates will remain limited.
In other words, until BEVs hit 50% you will dismiss them.
OFCS, at the end of December mass-produced PEVs will have been available in the U.S. for seven full years, and yet only in this year have they reached 1% of total sales, despite large subsidies and other incentives. In California, which has accounted for 40-50% of all U.S. PEV sales/leases, the HOV lane stickers are worth more to the typical PEV buyer (given their high incomes raising the time value of their commutes) than the federal tax credit and state rebate combined, and yet we're still allowing individuals with incomes up to $150k (and couples up to $300k) to get the state rebate. How else can you interpret these facts, except to say that the general public remains indifferent to PEVs? For one thing, they still can't afford most of them.
Among other milestones, I've said before that I regard 5% of total sales, not 50%, as semi-significant, a level never achieved by HEVs here despite then-high gas prices, 10% as significant, and around 15% will be the point at which any AFV tech can be considered mainstream, assuming that no direct to the buyer incentives are serving as a thumb on the scale. We have years to go to get to any of these, and much of greater future adoption remains driven by government mandates. After all, if the public were adopting these techs on their own, there would be no need for governments in Norway, the Netherlands, France, the U.K., China and India to impose bans on sales of ICEs after a certain date - people would simply stop buying them, just as they stopped buying typewriters in anything other that trivial numbers.
I'm hardly the only AFV supporter to recognize this - here's an ABG review of the new LEAF that makes essentially the same points: https://www.autoblog.com/2017/09/20/2018-nissan-leaf-quick-spin-another-fork-stab-into-the-light-s/
WetEV wrote:Once again, FCEVs are more expensive in all cases. Not only now, but for the foreseeable future. Hydrogen is an expensive fuel mostly from fossil fuel sources, and the renewable hydrogen is even more expensive than gasoline and will likely stay more expensive than electric power. FCEVs don't have a niche, and will not have a niche.
As I have stated repeatedly, everyone involved recognizes that sustainable H2 and FCEVs must significantly reduce their costs for them to be viable replacements for fossil-fueled ICEs, which is why there's so much R&D being done in those areas. When or if they will succeed in doing so is unknown. As to having a niche, FCEVs already have one or two (high usage material handling equipment for one), but not yet in personal transportation.
As we've now repeated the same arguments several times, I'm returning to Mirai-specific posts here. All those who wish to see these arguments in more detail may find them in the H2 and FCEVs topic, where they've been endlessly repeated.
WetEV wrote:Oh, but there is a huge economic incentive to ICEs. Free dumping of waste products into the atmosphere.
Sure, among many other incentives, and the public doesn't much care as air quality has improved so much since the '60s. In countries like China and India the public does care, because they're back where we were several decades ago as far as smog, but even there when given the choice the public is buying ICEs, e.g.
China car dilemma: Beijing wants electric, buyers want SUVs