WetEV
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Feb 18, 2017 8:10 am

GRA wrote:Tesla Model S/X are the only BEVs that there's little doubt could survive without subsidies, but as they're luxury products where value for money is measured in entirely different units, that has little bearing on mass market viability. While I'm personally in favor of eliminating all subsidies now, if ever there was no excuse for subsidizing AFVs, Tesla and similarly priced cars provide it. We all hope that BEVs will reach the point where they will be profitable without subsidies, and acceptable to the mass market.


"Mass market" doesn't happen overnight. While sales would clearly decline for Leafs and similar BEVs if subsidies were to end, these cars are cheaper now without subsidies than they were at first with subsidies. Think about that.

You want a revolution. I'm happy with evolution.

Tesla owns one niche, and while Tesla might or might not survive, and might lose part or even all of this niche in the future, the luxury performance BEV niche will survive.

GRA wrote:I also believe that there's room for much less expensive, local BEVs.


The niche of BEV commuting doesn't require more range than 1st gen. cars. More range will expand the niche, sure. Lower price will help more, getting parity on selling price with similar commuting ICE cars will help, likely future bounces in gasoline price will help, and so on. Sure, commuting niche currently mostly limited to people with garages/carports/off street parking that can do home charging, and also mostly limited to second car slot. Might expand if solar makes daylight electric power very cheap , leading to more workplace charging. Might expand as batteries get cheaper and more energy dense.

PEHV can compete for the first car slot. So can longer range BEVs like the Bolt.

Grab a niche or two, own them and expand them.

I don't see a niche for FCEVs outside of general aviation and maybe commuter airliners. Too expensive for trucking, buses and general cars. Not high performance. Fueling stations too expensive for rural uses, where faster refueling would matter.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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WetEV
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Feb 18, 2017 8:15 am

lorenfb wrote:Yes, all companies require some form of ongoing R&D & GA to sustain a market position, but Tesla is presently
unprofitable and will continue to be so without a volume vehicle.


Tesla is not trying to just sustain a market position, they are trying to become the next Ford or GM.
WetEV
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Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Feb 18, 2017 5:13 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:Tesla Model S/X are the only BEVs that there's little doubt could survive without subsidies, but as they're luxury products where value for money is measured in entirely different units, that has little bearing on mass market viability. While I'm personally in favor of eliminating all subsidies now, if ever there was no excuse for subsidizing AFVs, Tesla and similarly priced cars provide it. We all hope that BEVs will reach the point where they will be profitable without subsidies, and acceptable to the mass market.

"Mass market" doesn't happen overnight. While sales would clearly decline for Leafs and similar BEVs if subsidies were to end, these cars are cheaper now without subsidies than they were at first with subsidies. Think about that. <snip>

As I'm trying to get this topic back to Mirai-specific posts and your points cover a range of issues, I've replied to you via pmail.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Feb 18, 2017 5:17 pm

Firetruck41 wrote:
GRA wrote:
TonyWilliams wrote:
With somebody who spends as much time pimping for hydrogen while taking cheap shots at EVs as GRA does, he *has* to make statements like this. <snip>

Tony, 'pimping' implies that I benefit in some way, financially or otherwise. I have no financial interests in FCEVs (or BEVs, PHEVs, ICEs, electricity/fossil/H2 providers or any company involved with them, beyond possibly some mutual funds where I'm unaware of what stocks they hold), nor do I particularly care which ZEV tech(s) succeed. So how am I 'pimping'? .

Ego?

Yeah, that must be it! :lol: I am not, nor have I ever been, Donald J. Trump. :roll:
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

lorenfb
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Feb 19, 2017 11:01 am

arnis wrote:Tesla is profitable now. And has been for some time now.
Every single car they sell makes a lot of money - this is called profit.
The fact that all profit is used up for expansion doesn't make a company unprofitable.
Even if more than 100% of profits is used for expansion.


Really? That's not what their financial statements indicate. Remember, there's a difference between a GP (gross profits)
and bottom line financial profits. Apple has a great GP AND a financial profit which assures long term viability.
Tesla only has a good GP but presently has no financial profitability. This week we'll see if things change with the 2016 report. If the Model E really arrives, that'll potentially impact Tesla's present GP but further impact their financial
results.

And yes, back to the Mirai & FCEVs, i.e. another EV to facilitate the transition from ICEVs!

arnis
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Feb 19, 2017 3:07 pm

What does Apple actually make? Besides money? Factories? No. Phones? No. Laptops? No. Processors? No.
Software? yes. Chargers? No. Apples? No. Oranges? No. Batteries? No. What do they make? Money. Awesome.

How the heck does Tesla build world largest factory, world largest charging network without money?
What will happen if they stop making new factories and new Superchargers? Stop wasting money on new stuff
like PowerPack, Solar Roof?

Why Toyota is not building Hydrogen stations worldwide? Oh yea... I forgot. The main reason to exist is to have
financial profitability. Because without it company will definitely stop existing. Like Tesla.
If Toyota starts investing into "making more things" then they will have bad financial profitability.
Therefore nobody should do new stuff. At least not fast. Ok, 3 hydrogen stations and we will have 30 in a decade.

I hope it is not funny because it is not.
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epirali
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Feb 19, 2017 4:26 pm

arnis wrote:What does Apple actually make? Besides money? Factories? No. Phones? No. Laptops? No. Processors? No.
Software? yes. Chargers? No. Apples? No. Oranges? No. Batteries? No. What do they make? Money. Awesome.


This is way off topic but can't help myself: I am not sure what you mean. What is the difference between Apple PAYING for massive new production lines for its products by using subcontractors and actually building said factories and then shutting them later (like car makers do)? Also call car manufacturers, including Tesla, outsource a very large portion of the car to third parties, so how is that different?

JasonA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Feb 20, 2017 9:26 am

lorenfb wrote:
WetEV wrote:Tesla, if happy as a high end car company, could be profitable selling expensive cars.


Where're the data to support this? Given the price point that Tesla sells the S/X and their volumes, there's no
possible profitability when R&D, GA & Sales are considered. In the long term Tesla can't survive without a high
volume vehicle, e.g. Model E, to amortize fixed costs and to obtain lower parts costs for the higher end vehicles.
Yeah.. and if everyone like you had that mentality then we'd have no innovation... :roll:

Everyone keeps saying Elon and Tesla and everything else will fail...

Well... I remember back in the 90's they said you couldn't get enough power out of batteries to push a car fast enough or be viable...

I remember when Tesla started and Elon took over EVERYONE said he was a joke and the Roadster was going to fail and so was the company...

I remember when Tesla announced the S and EVERYONE said it was going to be TOO expensive and was going to be a failure (aka 2010/2011)

I remember when Elon and Bro said they were going to do SolarCity and everyone thought they were going to fail because the market was over saturated..

I remember when Tesla announced the Model X... kinda rough start... but look at them now! everybody wants one! and they are all over the place!! NOT ONE Mirai AROUND!!

I remember when Elon talked about SpaceX and starting a rocket company and EVERY F'ing BODY laughed and joked at him...

yup.. the list goes on and on... as do the internet trolls :lol:

Ohhh yeah... doesn't he have the World's biggest factory now?? and something like 600+k orders for some new car??

Howwwww many Mirai's on the road??

Ohhh yeah.. it's "for the deep divers" :roll:
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JasonA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Feb 20, 2017 9:28 am

And I'll go to post that if you look at the latest crap campaign that Toyota is doing on Social Media for the Mirai "ohhhh thank you Toyota, you're the best car company ever!!" :lol:

There's a TON of responses and replies saying they are Mirai owners and the car has a boatload of issues, lack of fueling infrastructure,etc..

And Toyota is doing nothing for them... hmmm
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TonyWilliams
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Feb 20, 2017 1:29 pm

"Tesla will NEVER be profitable".... "Elon Musk is an idiot".... "Tesla will fail before they ever get the first production roadster on the road" ... "Tesla will fail before the Model S ever enters production"... "Nobody wants an electric car, there's zero demand for them".... "Electric cars just move the pollution from the tailpipe to the smokestack"... "Even if they make a production electric car, it will never have the performance of an ICE car"... "They are only suitable for neighborhhod vehicles at slow speeds"... "there's never going to be an infrastructure to support electric cars"... "the Grid will fail if we convert to electric cars".... "Electric cars will always be too high priced and owning one will be a more expensive proposition than an ICE car"... "The battery pack will never last, they cost too much and they will not work in cold winter weather"... "They will fail at Tesla because they are NOT big Detroit OEM experts"... "They don't know ANYTHING about sustained production of automobiles" .... "Tesla will NEVER achieve 20,000 cars built in a year... "Hydrogen will be an instantly available fuel infrastructure from clean 100% renewable resources for affordable FCEV's that cost less than a ICE car".

1) First they ignore you
2) then they laugh at you
3) then they fight you
4) then you win

We are at step three for the several hydrogen shills here.

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