WetEV wrote:Tesla, if happy as a high end car company, could be profitable selling expensive cars.
lorenfb wrote:Where're the data to support this? Given the price point that Tesla sells the S/X and their volumes, there's no
possible profitability when R&D, GA & Sales are considered.
WetEV wrote:Tesla's R&D is excessive because of Tesla's strategy.
So is a large fraction of GA.
Yes, all companies require some form of ongoing R&D & GA to sustain a market position, but Tesla is presently
unprofitable and will continue to be so without a volume vehicle. Those costs will not be significantly reduced
at Tesla's present sales growth rate. Even with massive ZEV credits, Tesla is not profitable.
WetEV wrote:Price point would need to go up, but not very far. Volume might drop, but not by much. People buying $120k cars are not very price sensitive. Or the battery cost could come down, which is happening even without the Gigafactory.
That's your guess!
WetEV wrote:Assuming, of course, that some other car company doesn't want to buy this market by producing a similar car and undercutting Tesla on price. Or, for that matter, just doing a hostile takeover, as the stock price of such a car company would be rather lower than Tesla's.
Why would any company wish to takeover Tesla? There's no key "rent", technology, or barrier to entry that makes
Tesla a desirable asset. Their only real ecosystem are the SCs. Besides, the cost to replicate the SCs would not
be burdensome for any of the major automotive OEMs.
WetEV wrote:From the point of view of electric cars, Audi/Porche/Maserati/Jaguar/Aston Martin/Mercedes-Benz/Ferrari/Bentley or someone else might take over the high end electric car leadership, and the market niche would remain. Technology based niche, not "Tesla" name based. The technology can be copied.
Right, Tesla has no key market protection!
WetEV wrote:The Model 3 strategy depends on things like the Bolt, Leaf 2 and similar all being disasters, or focused too far down market. Tesla's survival with this strategy depends on winning all the battles and the war as well.
That's a naive market strategy, i.e. hoping/planning that all the competition failures will be the only reason for your success.
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 66K miles, 50 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F, min discharge point > 20 Ahrs