GRA wrote:Tesla Model S/X are the only BEVs that there's little doubt could survive without subsidies, but as they're luxury products where value for money is measured in entirely different units, that has little bearing on mass market viability. While I'm personally in favor of eliminating all subsidies now, if ever there was no excuse for subsidizing AFVs, Tesla and similarly priced cars provide it. We all hope that BEVs will reach the point where they will be profitable without subsidies, and acceptable to the mass market.
"Mass market" doesn't happen overnight. While sales would clearly decline for Leafs and similar BEVs if subsidies were to end, these cars are cheaper now without subsidies than they were at first with subsidies. Think about that.
You want a revolution. I'm happy with evolution.
Tesla owns one niche, and while Tesla might or might not survive, and might lose part or even all of this niche in the future, the luxury performance BEV niche will survive.
GRA wrote:I also believe that there's room for much less expensive, local BEVs.
The niche of BEV commuting doesn't require more range than 1st gen. cars. More range will expand the niche, sure. Lower price will help more, getting parity on selling price with similar commuting ICE cars will help, likely future bounces in gasoline price will help, and so on. Sure, commuting niche currently mostly limited to people with garages/carports/off street parking that can do home charging, and also mostly limited to second car slot. Might expand if solar makes daylight electric power very cheap , leading to more workplace charging. Might expand as batteries get cheaper and more energy dense.
PEHV can compete for the first car slot. So can longer range BEVs like the Bolt.
Grab a niche or two, own them and expand them.
I don't see a niche for FCEVs outside of general aviation and maybe commuter airliners. Too expensive for trucking, buses and general cars. Not high performance. Fueling stations too expensive for rural uses, where faster refueling would matter.