GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:19 pm

DarthPuppy wrote:I was interested in the Mirai when they rolled them out. But 2 years later they still don't have adequate fueling infrastructure in place. And now the BEVs have adequate range for reasonable dollars. For me, their window of opportunity passed with Leaf 2.0 being released.

I agree that the window of opportunity is closing in the U.S. for H2/FCEV passenger cars, and sent CAFCP an email saying as much when the Long-range Model 3's specs were released - they have to step up the pace of station openings as well as provide access to more destinations, and get the price of H2 and FCEVs down, and the performance of the latter up. I expect there's another two or three years before the window shuts completely.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:30 pm

smkettner wrote:
GRA wrote:Per IEVS, 70 Mirais were sold/leased in August, making 760 YTD versus 641 YTD last year.

I would be interested in public sales excluding fleet and employees.
Still the numbers are real low to try to mark any trend.

It'as about an 18.5% increase YoY, which is pretty similar to the numbers that IEVS trumpets for BEVs. To that number you'd need to add the 432 YTD for the Clarity FCEV to get a more accurate figure for how the FCEV market in California has grown. There were only 8 Claritys delivered in December of last year, so the numbers look like 1,192/649 = 83.7% increase YoY, although there are a few Hyundai Tucsons in addition last year that would decrease that.

Whichever is correct, the total remains small, as the manufacturers are limiting availability due to the slower than anticipated growth of the infrastructure. CARB has put in place mechanisms in the current round of funding (GFO 15-605) that should speed up the next round of station openings, as well as awarding all those stations to companies that already have experience building them: First Element, Shell and Air Liquide.

[Edit: Corrected some numbers]
Last edited by GRA on Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:53 am

I'd think about this car just because, heck, who has a fuel cell? I recall my city even had a refueling station some years back. Too bad it's only available in a pitifully small market. Would certainly be a unique car to own.

GlennD
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:25 am

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:I'd think about this car just because, heck, who has a fuel cell? I recall my city even had a refueling station some years back. Too bad it's only available in a pitifully small market. Would certainly be a unique car to own.


It is a car for the blind! IT IS SO UGLY. As limited as my driving miles are I could live with an H2 car but not a large Ugly one. No one is buying or leasing the ugly car.

I measured my garage and a Tesla S would fit but it is just too large. My eGolf is just right for me. A Fiat 500E is too small. I guess there is a car size for every buyer.
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Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:40 pm

GRA wrote:
DarthPuppy wrote:I was interested in the Mirai when they rolled them out. But 2 years later they still don't have adequate fueling infrastructure in place. And now the BEVs have adequate range for reasonable dollars. For me, their window of opportunity passed with Leaf 2.0 being released.

I agree that the window of opportunity is closing in the U.S. for H2/FCEV passenger cars, and sent CAFCP an email saying as much when the Long-range Model 3's specs were released - they have to step up the pace of station openings as well as provide access to more destinations, and get the price of H2 and FCEVs down, and the performance of the latter up. I expect there's another two or three years before the window shuts completely.


Sorry if this was addressed earlier in this thread, but they need to re-prioritize station placement to facilitate long-distance travel by a FC-PHEV. Don't bother trying to build out enough stations to support daily commuters, instead just enough for those cars to make the occasional long-distance trip. Even Honda's recognizing this with their new PHEV Clarity. The stations will get higher utilization, and the state benefits from lower overall energy consumption (less electrolysis per vehicle-miles driven).
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:50 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
GRA wrote:
DarthPuppy wrote:I was interested in the Mirai when they rolled them out. But 2 years later they still don't have adequate fueling infrastructure in place. And now the BEVs have adequate range for reasonable dollars. For me, their window of opportunity passed with Leaf 2.0 being released.

I agree that the window of opportunity is closing in the U.S. for H2/FCEV passenger cars, and sent CAFCP an email saying as much when the Long-range Model 3's specs were released - they have to step up the pace of station openings as well as provide access to more destinations, and get the price of H2 and FCEVs down, and the performance of the latter up. I expect there's another two or three years before the window shuts completely.


Sorry if this was addressed earlier in this thread, but they need to re-prioritize station placement to facilitate long-distance travel by a FC-PHEV. Don't bother trying to build out enough stations to support daily commuters, instead just enough for those cars to make the occasional long-distance trip. Even Honda's recognizing this with their new PHEV Clarity. The stations will get higher utilization, and the state benefits from lower overall energy consumption (less electrolysis per vehicle-miles driven).

I think they need to do both. To expand sales they need to build more stations for routine use where people live, but it's also critical they expand coverage to many more destinations throughout the state so people don't find themselves limited to a $60k commuter car. I've told them so, but the next round of funding is almost entirely local stations - only the additional I-5 connector station in Santa Nella (to provide backup/extra capacity for Harris Ranch) has much to do with improving long distance travel, although the two extra stations in the Sacramento area will improve capacity on I-80 and U.S. 50 between the Bay Area and Tahoe.

The 3 stations Shell's going to build in San Francisco are much needed given the income and ideological demographics and the high % of people living in apartments there, as are the ones in Berkeley and Oakland, plus a few more in the South Bay. The rest are going to be in SoCal, where the major growth is currently expected. Details of that next round can be found in the California H2 stations thread.
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The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:53 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
GRA wrote:
DarthPuppy wrote:I was interested in the Mirai when they rolled them out. But 2 years later they still don't have adequate fueling infrastructure in place. And now the BEVs have adequate range for reasonable dollars. For me, their window of opportunity passed with Leaf 2.0 being released.

I agree that the window of opportunity is closing in the U.S. for H2/FCEV passenger cars, and sent CAFCP an email saying as much when the Long-range Model 3's specs were released - they have to step up the pace of station openings as well as provide access to more destinations, and get the price of H2 and FCEVs down, and the performance of the latter up. I expect there's another two or three years before the window shuts completely.


Sorry if this was addressed earlier in this thread, but they need to re-prioritize station placement to facilitate long-distance travel by a FC-PHEV. Don't bother trying to build out enough stations to support daily commuters, instead just enough for those cars to make the occasional long-distance trip. Even Honda's recognizing this with their new PHEV Clarity. The stations will get higher utilization, and the state benefits from lower overall energy consumption (less electrolysis per vehicle-miles driven).


That idea may work for hybrid FCEVs, but certainly not sufficient for vehicles that only use hydrogen.
Plugin vehicles have the advantage of being able to be charged at home. You can't do this with hydrogen fueling.
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:03 pm

Zythryn wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:Sorry if this was addressed earlier in this thread, but they need to re-prioritize station placement to facilitate long-distance travel by a FC-PHEV. Don't bother trying to build out enough stations to support daily commuters, instead just enough for those cars to make the occasional long-distance trip. Even Honda's recognizing this with their new PHEV Clarity. The stations will get higher utilization, and the state benefits from lower overall energy consumption (less electrolysis per vehicle-miles driven).


That idea may work for hybrid FCEVs, but certainly not sufficient for vehicles that only use hydrogen.
Plugin vehicles have the advantage of being able to be charged at home.

Right.

Zythryn wrote: You can't do this with hydrogen fueling.

Yet. Whether it will ever be cost-effective to do so is the question, not whether it's technically feasible - the Japanese are already running some dem/val level experiments, and those and others have been linked to in the H2 and Fuel Cells thread in the past..
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The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:49 pm

GRA wrote:
Zythryn wrote: You can't do this with hydrogen fueling.

Yet. Whether it will ever be cost-effective to do so is the question, not whether it's technically feasible - the Japanese are already running some dem/val level experiments, and those and others have been linked to in the H2 and Fuel Cells thread in the past..
Equipment for H2 FCV refueling installed: US$250,000.00
Equipment for BEV refueling installed: US$2,000.00 or less

Of course operating and fuel costs for the BEV home equipment is also likely 1/4 that of the H2 station or even less.

Zythryn is much closer to reality given these numbers.

Jeff Goldblum as Ian Malcolm in Jurassic Park summed up the H2 FCV situation very well:
Ian Malcolm in Jurassic Park wrote:Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn’t stop to think if they should.
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EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:50 pm

GlennD wrote:
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:I'd think about this car just because, heck, who has a fuel cell? I recall my city even had a refueling station some years back. Too bad it's only available in a pitifully small market. Would certainly be a unique car to own.


It is a car for the blind! IT IS SO UGLY. As limited as my driving miles are I could live with an H2 car but not a large Ugly one. No one is buying or leasing the ugly car.

I measured my garage and a Tesla S would fit but it is just too large. My eGolf is just right for me. A Fiat 500E is too small. I guess there is a car size for every buyer.

It is very ugly, but for a lease I would do it just because I'd be the only person I've ever met with one.

Fuel cell tech is such a daydream right now I am really surprised toyota even bothered.

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