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RegGuheert
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Jun 05, 2018 4:43 am

GRA wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:
GRA ib June 3, 2018 wrote:<span>Per IEVS, May U.S. <a href="http://www.mytoyotamirai.com" class="interlinkr">Mirai<span class="tip">Visit the Mirai Forum</span></a> sales/leases were 102, up from 76 last month, and 640 total for the year. Still very limited, but the first MoM increase this year. Still waiting on Clarity FCEV lease info.</span>
GRA on June 1, 2017 wrote:May U.S. Mirai sales per IEVS: 162 (579 YTD). The IEVS article has a mistake and says 305 YTD, which was the total at the end of March IIRR. Of note, the Clarity FCEV saw its leases jump to 119 in May (previous high 42 in January), so I think the word is spreading that it's a better car than the Mirai.
In other words, fewer than 63% as many Mirais were moved this May versus May 2017.

Quite so, and I imagine most of the difference is due to the availability of the Clarity FCEV. Mirai sales dropped after the Clarity became available, just as you'd expect for two vehicles competing in the same limited niche. [Edit] IEVS now has Clarity FCEV numbers, 30 for May, which is very poor compared to last month. I wonder if this is an inventory problem.
So if we somehow imagine that Honda Clarities are Toyota Mirais, we have May 2018 sales at about 81% of May 2017 sales. But the Honda Clarity is not a Toyota Mirai...
RegGuheert
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GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Jun 05, 2018 5:22 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:In other words, fewer than 63% as many Mirais were moved this May versus May 2017.

Quite so, and I imagine most of the difference is due to the availability of the Clarity FCEV. Mirai sales dropped after the Clarity became available, just as you'd expect for two vehicles competing in the same limited niche. [Edit] IEVS now has Clarity FCEV numbers, 30 for May, which is very poor compared to last month. I wonder if this is an inventory problem.
So if we somehow imagine that Honda Clarities are Toyota Mirais, we have May 2018 sales at about 81% of May 2017 sales. But the Honda Clarity is not a Toyota Mirai...

Quite so, the Clarity's generally a better deal. OTOH, both are generally considered ugly or at least weird-looking, and are also sedans, which doesn't help sales of either of them. Add to that the fueling network is well behind schedule, and has concentrated on expanding density and capacity in urban areas (which is certainly needed to boost owner confidence and convenience for routine driving) at the expense of expanding coverage into new areas, and the problems/mistakes are piling up. We won't see any major increase in station numbers until 2019, and those are all density/capacity infill.
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GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:32 pm

Per IEVS, June U.S. Mirai sales/leases were 103, virtually the same as last month with 102, and 743 total for the year. Still waiting on Clarity FCEV lease info.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:29 pm

Via IEVS:
From O’Groats To Land’s End In A Toyota Mirai?
https://insideevs.com/from-ogroats-to-lands-end-in-a-toyota-mirai/

. . . A team from Autocar started at John O’Groats on the north and drove south to Land’s End covering 1,109 miles (1,784 km) over a few days. Driving FCVs in the UK requires a lot of caution, as the hydrogen stations are far from each other (by the end of 2018 there will be 16 total). . . .

Because there were fears about hydrogen consumption, the driver played it safe and, for example, on the first leg of 230 miles to Aberdeen, turned off the air conditioner.

Some gear was carried in a backup car to decrease the weight of the Mirai. In other places, they decreased speed – “we drive like we’re towing a caravan”. It doesn’t sound encouraging, but without infrastructure, there was no choice. Interestingly, it was noted that Mirai doesn’t have regenerative braking, as the small battery would not be able to accept the power or much energy.

Overall here are the stats from driving the Toyota Mirai in the UK:

    1,109 miles (1,784 km)
    19 hours and 40 minutes
    average speed 56 mph (90 km/h)
    hydrogen consumption of 0.9 kg per 100 km (62 miles)
    total 16.1 kg of hydrogen consumed at £193 ($255) or 17.9p per mile $0.23 per mile
    15 minutes spent on refuelling (four stops)
    exhausted 14.5 litres of unadulterated water. . . .

As always, this example makes clear that any AFV is dependent on an adequate fueling infrastructure as well as the price of that fuel for its commercial viability. For H2/FCEVs, neither is there yet; even so, the average speed and minimal amount of time spent refueling reinforce the advantages for road trips of long range combined with rapid energy replacement, commensurate with liquid-fueled ICEs.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:02 pm

GRA wrote:For H2/FCEVs, neither is there yet; even so, the average speed and minimal amount of time spent refueling reinforce the advantages for road trips of long range combined with rapid energy replacement, commensurate with liquid-fueled ICEs.
Compared to what? A comparably-priced Tesla Model 3 (which can likely be built at a profit at that price, unlike the Toyota Mirai), could make this trip with only two stops with air conditioning and likely would get there faster. The fuel for the trip would likely cost less than about 1/4 as much, even paying the standard Supercharger rates.
RegGuheert
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10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
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smkettner
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:21 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:For H2/FCEVs, neither is there yet; even so, the average speed and minimal amount of time spent refueling reinforce the advantages for road trips of long range combined with rapid energy replacement, commensurate with liquid-fueled ICEs.
Compared to what? A comparably-priced Tesla Model 3 (which can likely be built at a profit at that price, unlike the Toyota Mirai), could make this trip with only two stops with air conditioning and likely would get there faster. The fuel for the trip would likely cost less than about 1/4 as much, even paying the standard Supercharger rates.
And since they both need fueling infrastructure the EV would be far lower cost to build out the stations required.
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mux
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:52 pm

Yeah, you quickly run into the quite big difference between theoretical energy transfer speeds and actual time spent on refueling by the user. The only honest way to compare refueling technologies is by comparing actual trip times, and this heavily favors BEVs for a long time still. Really, the only reason gasoline refueling is so relatively quick isn't due to the high energy density of the fuel alone, it's mainly because of how incredibly widespread gas stations are so you can always find one along your itinerary. That comes at an immense cost though, and it's really unlikely that people are willing to 'upgrade' to an AFV only to find out they're spending the same and having less convenience.

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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:06 pm

Was in Japan for two weeks in June. Went to Megaweb Toyota City Showcase in Tokyo. There they had every car they sell in Japan. 80% of the cars there were built on the Prius platform. Crowns (Camry) all kinds of small vans and econo cars were built on the Prius platform.
They had one Mirai and one gentleman who was demoing it. He said that there were 100 functioning Hydrogen fueling stations in the greater Tokyo area. 100 might seem like a lot but in a metropolitan area of 37 million people it is not many. I asked him if Toyota was subsidizing people for the cost of hydrogen. He looked at me like I had two heads. They do not subsidize for hydrogen in Japan. Which might explain why I never saw one the entire time I was there.
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cwerdna
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:16 am

downeykp wrote:Was in Japan for two weeks in June. Went to Megaweb Toyota City Showcase in Tokyo. There they had every car they sell in Japan. 80% of the cars there were built on the Prius platform. Crowns (Camry) all kinds of small vans and econo cars were built on the Prius platform.

You talking about TNGA?

http://www.toyota-global.com/innovation/tnga/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Ne ... chitecture

IIRC, gen 4 Prius (2016+ model year) was delayed due to TNGA. (I don't follow Prius very closely any more, as my focus has shifted to Leaf and EVs. It doesn't help that Toyota really screwed up the styling on the gen 4 Prius. :cry: :evil: )

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Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

mux
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:30 am

Oh, hydrogen is subsidized big time in Japan, just not very visibly. Pretty much all of the first 45ish hydrogen fueling stations in the country were completely bought and paid for by the government and a lot of the hydrogen production capacity is also completely subsidized. That being said, they don't get the free hydrogen pass for 3 years that you get in California as well as the much lower leasing/buying price.

And that's also why Mirais are so much more common in CA than anywhere else; CA/Toyota US simply gives by far the most subsidies. There's well over $100k worth of subsidies going into a single Mirai over its lifespan, even outside of the loss they're making on the car's production. It's mind-boggling. I wonder if the Nexo is going to be better in this regard, because this is highly unsustainable.

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