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jlv
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:57 am

mux wrote:Really, the only reason gasoline refueling is so relatively quick isn't due to the high energy density of the fuel alone, it's mainly because of how incredibly widespread gas stations are so you can always find one along your itinerary.
I don't see that at all. I don't think 3 minutes pumping gasoline to put in 400 miles of range has anything to do with how widespread gas stations are.
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:44 am

jlv wrote:
mux wrote:Really, the only reason gasoline refueling is so relatively quick isn't due to the high energy density of the fuel alone, it's mainly because of how incredibly widespread gas stations are so you can always find one along your itinerary.
I don't see that at all. I don't think 3 minutes pumping gasoline to put in 400 miles of range has anything to do with how widespread gas stations are.


Have you factored in the travel time to get to the gas station? If there wasn't one around the corner, you'd have to make a trip to the gas station (could be a 5-15 min detour). You could combine it with a costco run, but now you have to add a 15-min line-wait.
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:28 am

Even if there was a 100+kW DCFC everyplace there is a gas station today, it would still take 20-40 minutes to charge. The quickness of the fill-up time for gas is still the benchmark people want to see.
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:14 pm

The point is that you're never filling up an EV completely and charging speeds are going up so fast that we're rivaling gas pump dwell times. A 350kW DCFC from 20-80% means you're only there for about 7 minutes. That is barely more than typical gas station visits, in fact, it's slightly below the average gas station visit in my country.

So if H2 infra isn't being deployed nearly as quickly as EV DCFC and the charging times are getting reduced by so much, where's the USP of any high-density fuel?

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jlv
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:18 pm

mux wrote:The point is that you're never filling up an EV completely and charging speeds are going up so fast that we're rivaling gas pump dwell times. A 350kW DCFC from 20-80% means you're only there for about 7 minutes. That is barely more than typical gas station visits, in fact, it's slightly below the average gas station visit in my country.

So if H2 infra isn't being deployed nearly as quickly as EV DCFC and the charging times are getting reduced by so much, where's the USP of any high-density fuel?
OK, I see that logic!

Of course, once you toss in the ability to DCFC at 350kW at a reasonable cost...
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GetOffYourGas
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:29 pm

jlv wrote:
mux wrote:The point is that you're never filling up an EV completely and charging speeds are going up so fast that we're rivaling gas pump dwell times. A 350kW DCFC from 20-80% means you're only there for about 7 minutes. That is barely more than typical gas station visits, in fact, it's slightly below the average gas station visit in my country.

So if H2 infra isn't being deployed nearly as quickly as EV DCFC and the charging times are getting reduced by so much, where's the USP of any high-density fuel?
OK, I see that logic!

Of course, once you toss in the ability to DCFC at 350kW at a reasonable cost...


Of course, we are talking here about the occassional road trip. What we are missing is the elephant in the room - the daily commute. This is the bulk of most people's annual mileage. How much time do you save in a year by charging while sleeping or working (i.e. about 10 seconds/day to plug/unplug your car) versus travelling to the pump (gas or H2) once a week and standing there for 5 minutes while pumping fuel? I know it's a change in mindset, but I'll take the slightly longer road trip over the weekly fuel stop any day.

But going further, the last time I took a trip beyond my car's range, I simply timed my charge stop to coincide with a meal. So even my 40 minute charge session took considerably less time out of my trip than gassing up. If I had to buy gas, I would have eaten dinner and then had to go to the pump for 5 minutes to refuel.
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GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:43 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:For H2/FCEVs, neither is there yet; even so, the average speed and minimal amount of time spent refueling reinforce the advantages for road trips of long range combined with rapid energy replacement, commensurate with liquid-fueled ICEs.
Compared to what? A comparably-priced Tesla Model 3 (which can likely be built at a profit at that price, unlike the Toyota Mirai), could make this trip with only two stops with air conditioning and likely would get there faster. The fuel for the trip would likely cost less than about 1/4 as much, even paying the standard Supercharger rates.

Reg, don't be silly. Any vehicle with a longer range and faster refueling, capable of the same speed, will arrive first if one or more stops is required. The only thing that prevented the Mirai from getting there even faster is the current sparsity of fueling stations, which requires driving at slower speeds to stretch the range to reach them. As I stated in the post you are quoting,
As always, this example makes clear that any AFV is dependent on an adequate fueling infrastructure as well as the price of that fuel for its commercial viability.
This is no different than any other vehicle, regardless of its energy source. Or are you claiming that such speed compromises don't have to be practiced by Tesla drivers wherever the SC infrastructure is too sparse for the range? You know better, but here's a current example from the lack of an SC on I-10 in Ft. Stockton, TX:
With my old P85 each trip through the area cost me about 3 hours of my life.

Forced to take the Jeep most trips, starting in early 2014. After 4 years I decided to punt and buy the bigger battery.
With the new 100D it only costs me about 30 minutes per trip - plus the $110,000 of course :(
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/supercharger-fort-stockton-texas.81725/page-54

As to current costs being too high, did you expect an argument from me? I've been consistently saying that the price of fuel, of fuel cell stacks, and fueling infrastructure must come down for H2/FCEVs to be commercially viable. You know this, or should, because I've said it directly to you numerous times. FCEVs are already operationally viable, if the necessary fueling infrastructure is available, because they currently provide 80-90% of the same capability as ICEs, with more to come, and longer lifespans with less degradation than BEVs. BEVs are down in the 50-70% range owing to the life/degradation issues, but improving as well.
Last edited by GRA on Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:46 pm

smkettner wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:For H2/FCEVs, neither is there yet; even so, the average speed and minimal amount of time spent refueling reinforce the advantages for road trips of long range combined with rapid energy replacement, commensurate with liquid-fueled ICEs.
Compared to what? A comparably-priced Tesla Model 3 (which can likely be built at a profit at that price, unlike the Toyota Mirai), could make this trip with only two stops with air conditioning and likely would get there faster. The fuel for the trip would likely cost less than about 1/4 as much, even paying the standard Supercharger rates.
And since they both need fueling infrastructure the EV would be far lower cost to build out the stations required.

Perhaps, although the cost of H2 fueling infrastructure is coming down with economies of scale (see the most recent California report in the California Retail H2 Station topic), along with technical developments. And the higher throughput of the H2 stations means less land is required per car served.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:53 pm

mux wrote:Oh, hydrogen is subsidized big time in Japan, just not very visibly. Pretty much all of the first 45ish hydrogen fueling stations in the country were completely bought and paid for by the government and a lot of the hydrogen production capacity is also completely subsidized. That being said, they don't get the free hydrogen pass for 3 years that you get in California as well as the much lower leasing/buying price.

And that's also why Mirais are so much more common in CA than anywhere else; CA/Toyota US simply gives by far the most subsidies. There's well over $100k worth of subsidies going into a single Mirai over its lifespan, even outside of the loss they're making on the car's production. It's mind-boggling. I wonder if the Nexo is going to be better in this regard, because this is highly unsustainable.

Sure, sales are better where subsidies are highest, just as BEVs have the largest market share of any country in the world in Norway, for the same reason. Which just reinforces the fact that both techs are commercially unviable for the mass market at the moment, and most customers need direct bribes and other bennies to take them. At the higher end of the market, people have money to burn and economic viability matters a lot less, which is why cars like the Model S/X could survive the loss of subsidies far better than cars priced and bought for basic transportation. For more, see:
GCC: Study of 5-year TCO suggests ongoing challenge to unsubsidized BEV cost-competitiveness
https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=26147#p531881
Last edited by GRA on Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:01 pm

jlv wrote:
mux wrote:Really, the only reason gasoline refueling is so relatively quick isn't due to the high energy density of the fuel alone, it's mainly because of how incredibly widespread gas stations are so you can always find one along your itinerary.
I don't see that at all. I don't think 3 minutes pumping gasoline to put in 400 miles of range has anything to do with how widespread gas stations are.

If you're in something like a Prius, it's 1 minute for 500 miles or more. But the density of gas stations has two different reasons. One is convenience for travelers. The other is necessity for locals. If you have the ability to refuel/recharge at home, you need far less of the latter. Since almost no one can refine gas at home (some farmers can make ethanol), that isn't an option for ICEs and currently not for FCEVs.

The availability of at-home charging varies widely through the world, but few if any countries have the percentage of detached, single family homes with electricity available where needed that the U.S. does, and even here the percentage where home charging is currently possible is only about 56%. In Britain it's apparently around 20%, and most countries' housing looks a lot more like Britain's then the U.S.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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