Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: GRA wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:The fact that you recognize the current mindset as being a "conditioned" expectation and yet expect it to continue is astounding!
No, it's realistic. Yes, it's conditioned behavior, but it's far easier to get people to change their conditioning if you aren't asking them to accept less than what they're used to, but instead giving them everything they're used to, and more.
This is the perfect example of sophistry. Giving them exactly what they're used to isn't changing their expectations.
Of course it's not changing their expectations. They want what they have, and something extra. See my immediately preceding reply to WetEV. That's how people really behave. Expecting mass altruism is unrealistic.
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: GRA wrote: Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Conditioned behavior just makes it easier to continue the status quo, but does not preclude the adoption of new behavior. Your reply to downeykp points to a logical inconsistency that you're not recognizing. 95% of driving public aren't refusing to drive an EV due to a lack of charging when 67% of americans have a dedicated garage or car port: https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fa ... or-carport
Which is great, but unless that garage/carport also has convenient electricity of the necessary voltage, its doesn't pass the hassle-free test. Here's some more stats from memory, but I've posted them elsewhere on this forum: 56% of American households can charge at home, i.e. 44% can't. And how much of that charging is limited to 120V, which is the norm? Of the 3 LEAFs in my neighborhood, two of them have to charge the same way I would, by running an (120V) extension cord out of a window, and these are all for people with parking pads or driveways living in detached single-family homes (or in-law units, in my case). In San Francisco, 67% of households are in MUDs, and even in Los Angeles the % is over 50% (forget the exact figure). As the incomes that allow people to afford more expensive cars like BEVs are concentrated in urban areas, and that's where the need for reducing air pollution is greatest and the suitability highest, we've got a major mismatch. And that's in the U.S., where the housing mix is hardly representative of the rest of the world.
Not going to bother addressing this non-sequiter. Not my point, so I refuse to take the bait.
How is discussing actual facts directly related to the subject a non-sequitur? Here's some more. My block in a bedroom suburb of the Bay Area is made up almost entirely of detached single-family homes with garages, with one small apartment building with its own off-street lot. In other words, it's exactly the sort of household demographic that is theoretically the best fit for PEVs. Yet, every night, both sides of the block are lined with the parked cars of residents, in addition to those parked on their driveways and/or in their garages. I have no doubt that the majority of garages are filled with people's stuff instead of being used for their cars, but the fact remains that's what people use their garages for. Now, how are all these cars to be charged? At least the people who can park a car on their driveway have a possibility of charging, if they're willing to run an extension cord and risk the theft of their portable EVSE, but on-street parking requires running a cord across the sidewalk, and that's not safe even if you have an outlet reasonably close by.
As for the apartment building, it has three or four garages plus parking spots with carports (and some residents undoubtedly park on the street). There's not a single receptacle serving any of the open spaces in the lot or in any of the carports, and I can't say whether the garages have them, but if they do they're undoubtedly L1.
I'll note that there isn't a single PEV owned by anyone in this block, despite what should be the ideal situation. Walking around the wider neighborhood (say eight to ten blocks), which has a similar single-use zoning limited mix of housing, I know of three LEAFs (one of which, charged through the house window by L1, was just replaced with a 2018), two Volt 1s, a Model S, and an A3 e-Tron; all
are at single-family homes, all but one with garages (but all but two charged outside), and four of them are charged via extension cord/L1, usually having to be run out a window or door in the house. One of the Volts and the Model S are owned by the same family, and are the only ones that have an EVSE inside the garage; one of the LEAFs has than L2 EVSE mounted outside the garage and charges there. And this is in a wealthy major urban area with a strong environmental ethos, in the most car-saturated country with probably the highest rate of people living in detached single family homes in the world. These real world charging limitations are why I favor PHEVs with limited size packs that can be fully recharged via L1 within the off-cap window as the only realistic choice for most people for now, until the charging infrastructure is far more extensive. That will take decades, so what do we do in the meantime? We already have real estate dedicated to gas stations, so putting H2 in at those locations is easier than other places, but any widespread deployment of that requires even greater cost reductions than BEVs do.
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: GRA wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:No, the lack of acceptance is due to either the higher purchase price, or the "perceived" shortcomings of EV's. Once people try it, they get it. I have 2 recent converts who are helping to spread the word after they spent almost a year worrying that there weren't enough chargers along their driving route, or that they'd forget to charge their car and would be stuck, or that 30 minutes for a fast charge was too long a wait. Perception and money are the only things holding people back, and the price of EV's are dropping and making the money issue moot.
Yes, higher purchase costs are a major factor, and perceptions are also crucial. But many of the those perceptions are based on fact, which is why we've had more than a few MNL members revert back from short-range BEVs to PHEVs, HEVs or even ICEs.
I never claimed that short-range EV's work for everyone, only that it CAN work for most. Your citing of MNL members reverting is countered by the many who stay and the new members who joined.
There's a huge difference between can and will. We all know that they CAN work for many in the U.S. and some other affluent countries (assuming they're rich enough to afford another car for the rest of their needs), but we also know that most people aren't willing under current circumstances to accept the limitations. But the fact that we've had numerous early adopters, most of whom had far more knowledge and were more willing to put up with compromises than the general public, decide to go back to non-BEVs (and many of those who've stuck with BEVs have opted to upgrade to longer-ranged ones with the fastest possible charging) is indicative of the need to come much closer to matching ICE capability for BEVs to be generally acceptable.
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:And again, you've diverted the focus on the point that BEV's, especially the model 3 are at the point of being able to replace ICE's with their 130kw superchargers.
No diversion intended. I contend that they aren't yet there. Certainly a car that doesn't even reach the low end of an ICE's range, which still has limited charging opportunities and constrains the type of housing you can live in, and which starts at $45k doesn't replace a much less expensive ICE which can be refueled anywhere. Get that down to $30k at 350kW and add another 50-100 miles of range (real world), and we'll be pretty close. But that doesn't help the people who can't afford more than $10k for a new car, which is a fairly common price in places like India or China.
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: GRA wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:The rest of your argument about how often one is forced to stop to recharge is pure sophistry. My point was about what's available now and whether it's acceptable (even accounting for self-selection), not about equipment design.
How is reality sophistry? Customer acceptance is the determining factor, and equipment capability (and costs, infrastructure etc.) are the critical factors in achieving that.
See above, in aggregate, not out of context. That's reality. It might not be right for everyone, but it is real for most.
What's real for most is that the general public isn't willing to accept current BEVs without bribes and mandates. Until the prices, capabilities and infrastructure all reach the point at which they make sense to the mass market without all the crutches, BEVs will remain a niche. A growing niche, but still a niche. And I don't think a $35k base Model 3 SR that takes 30 minutes to replace 130 miles of range (ideal) and which still can't even do that on every freeway (never mind the more rural routes) in the U.S. yet, is enough to get BEVs beyond a niche.