GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Jul 28, 2018 3:06 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:Even if Toyota hits their costs savings (for producing EV's), they probably won't hit their sales target. As a matter of fact, they didn't hit their 2016 (~1000 of 2000) and 2017 (~1800 of 3000) targets! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-toyo ... B720151014

2018 YTD sales don't look pretty either (projected to be less than 2017): http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-da ... ota-mirai/

With such a capable manufacturer, production capacity isn't their issue.

Toyota's desire to increase FCEV production to 30k/year is a sign hubris.

FC stack production capacity is the issue, as their designer said a couple of years ago (I posted the article where he discussed that, I believe in the H2 and FCEV topic two or three years back. Stack production was limited to about 3k/year at that time IIRR by the amount of hand work and inspection required, and they still had high scrappage rates. [Edit] Found it, and here's the link:
Toyota Mirai Production Ceiling Is 3,000 Units Per Year
https://insideevs.com/toyota-mirai-production-ceiling-3000-units-per-year/

Learning how to avoid that and let the machines do the work was the key to scaling up into mass production, and they've put a lot of effort into that. As to not meeting sales projections, sure, prediction is difficult, especially when it's about the future. Just ask Tesla. In the meantime, Toyota can sell lots of Primes at a profit.
Last edited by GRA on Sat Jul 28, 2018 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Jul 28, 2018 3:23 pm

Stoaty wrote:
GRA wrote:Pretty much exactly the kind of improvements you expect from continued R&D and economies of scale. Toyota plans for the long-term and is willing (and able) to suffer the losses along the way, just as they did with HEVs.

The problem is that physics tells us that production of hydrogen from electricity will always be way less efficient than using electricity directly to power a BEV.

Of course. But if the electricity is abundant and cheap enough, no one will care. And that assumes that sustainable H2 can only be made through electrolysis, but production via other methods (waste gas) and R&D in others (photo- and thermo-catalytic) [Edit to add left out words] is underway. Here's some fairly current sources: https://www.amazon.com/Sustainable-Hydrogen-Production-Ibrahim-Dincer/dp/0128015632

https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319416144

Or you could just search online for sustainable hydrogen production, or check out the H2 production section of green car congress for articles: http://www.greencarcongress.com/hydrogen_production/

Naturally, none of this is guaranteed to make H2 prices commercial for vehicles, as that is always tied up with the cost of the alternatives (of comparable capability). So, Europe is a much more fertile field for H2 at the moment, given the high taxes on fossil fuels. And this post, like yours, belongs in the H2 and FCEV topic, where the same arguments have already been made numerous times.
Last edited by GRA on Sun Jul 29, 2018 4:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Jul 28, 2018 4:55 pm

GRA wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:Even if Toyota hits their costs savings (for producing EV's), they probably won't hit their sales target. As a matter of fact, they didn't hit their 2016 (~1000 of 2000) and 2017 (~1800 of 3000) targets! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-toyo ... B720151014

2018 YTD sales don't look pretty either (projected to be less than 2017): http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-da ... ota-mirai/

With such a capable manufacturer, production capacity isn't their issue.

Toyota's desire to increase FCEV production to 30k/year is a sign hubris.

FC stack production capacity is the issue, as their designer said a couple of years ago (I posted the article where he discussed that, I believe in the H2 and FCEV topic two or three years back. Stack production was limited to about 3k/year at that time IIRR by the amount of hand work and inspection required, and they still had high scrappage rates. [Edit] Found it, and here's the link:
Toyota Mirai Production Ceiling Is 3,000 Units Per Year
https://insideevs.com/toyota-mirai-production-ceiling-3000-units-per-year/

Learning how to avoid that and let the machines do the work was the key to scaling up into mass production, and they've put a lot of effort into that. As to not meeting sales projections, sure, prediction is difficult, especially when it's about the future. Just ask Tesla. In the meantime, Toyota can sell lots of Primes at a profit.


Again with the segue?!

Your link doesn't support your claim that stack production capacity is the issue. My link showed them projecting production to be 3000 in 2017 (your link doesn't contradict it), and they met that goal. As I said, production rate isn't a problem for Toyota.

You can't just brush the demand issue with a "prediction is difficult" blurb and tie it to Tesla as if they've had any trouble selling more than 2000 per year. This is the sophistry I've accused you of before.

Their Prius prime and mirai sales are empiracle evidence of their hubris. They have actual data showing which the customers prefer and can live with, but they've ignored it.
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Jul 29, 2018 2:26 pm

GRA wrote:But if the electricity is abundant and cheap enough, no one will care.


Which doesn't mean that the future vehicles are directly hydrogen powered. Still likely makes economic sense to use fixed fuel cells and put batteries in the vehicles.

This doesn't mean that the current fuel cell development is wasted spending. There may be fuel cells in the future, just likely not in cars/SUVs.
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Zythryn
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Jul 29, 2018 2:44 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:But if the electricity is abundant and cheap enough, no one will care.


Which doesn't mean that the future vehicles are directly hydrogen powered. Still likely makes economic sense to use fixed fuel cells and put batteries in the vehicles.

This doesn't mean that the current fuel cell development is wasted spending. There may be fuel cells in the future, just likely not in cars/SUVs.


Currently, I believe all highway capable FCVs do have batteries.
This is what makes it so silly not to include a plug, the batteries are already there!
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GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Jul 29, 2018 4:26 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
GRA wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:Even if Toyota hits their costs savings (for producing EV's), they probably won't hit their sales target. As a matter of fact, they didn't hit their 2016 (~1000 of 2000) and 2017 (~1800 of 3000) targets! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-toyo ... B720151014

2018 YTD sales don't look pretty either (projected to be less than 2017): http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-da ... ota-mirai/

With such a capable manufacturer, production capacity isn't their issue.

Toyota's desire to increase FCEV production to 30k/year is a sign hubris.

FC stack production capacity is the issue, as their designer said a couple of years ago (I posted the article where he discussed that, I believe in the H2 and FCEV topic two or three years back. Stack production was limited to about 3k/year at that time IIRR by the amount of hand work and inspection required, and they still had high scrappage rates. [Edit] Found it, and here's the link:
Toyota Mirai Production Ceiling Is 3,000 Units Per Year
https://insideevs.com/toyota-mirai-production-ceiling-3000-units-per-year/

Learning how to avoid that and let the machines do the work was the key to scaling up into mass production, and they've put a lot of effort into that. As to not meeting sales projections, sure, prediction is difficult, especially when it's about the future. Just ask Tesla. In the meantime, Toyota can sell lots of Primes at a profit.

Again with the segue?!

Your link doesn't support your claim that stack production capacity is the issue. My link showed them projecting production to be 3000 in 2017 (your link doesn't contradict it), and they met that goal. As I said, production rate isn't a problem for Toyota.

Of course it is. As I've said many times before (including just a page or two back in this thread), cost is the main issue H2 and FCEVs need to overcome to become commercially viable. If you can't build stacks in sufficient quantities at a low enough price, FCEVs can't be viable regardless of what happens with the price of H2 and its infrastructure. By the same token, should resource and/or production constraints limit the ability to produce enough battery packs for BEVs at a low enough price, they can't become mass market viable either.

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:You can't just brush the demand issue with a "prediction is difficult" blurb and tie it to Tesla as if they've had any trouble selling more than 2000 per year. This is the sophistry I've accused you of before.
But Tesla claimed they could produce X number of cars by Y date, and have repeatedly failed those predictions. They also thought they'd get at most 100k reservations for the Model 3, and more than tripled that in the first week. I predicted (after the initial surge of sales) that the i3 was far too expensive and that the Soul EV would far outsell it (actually, most of the i3s have been RExs, so I was only partly wrong on that one). And so on. It certainly didn't help that Toyota or Honda both blew the prediction big time that most customers would choose FCEVs that to most people are ugly or weirdmobiles (not to forget Toyota's equal misstep with the base Gen 4 Prius). Then there's the monthly if not weekly predictions of future EV uptake by various think tanks, which have one thing in common - the numbers are all over the place.

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:Their Prius prime and mirai sales are empiracle evidence of their hubris. They have actual data showing which the customers prefer and can live with, but they've ignored it.

It was always obvious that at current prices and with limited infrastructure, a PHEV is far more practical and well as affordable for most people compared to an FCEV, and that a PHEV would have higher sales for years. This is news? That the Prime also happens to be better looking as well doesn't hurt either.


[Edited to fix typos].
Last edited by GRA on Mon Jul 30, 2018 6:56 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Jul 29, 2018 4:28 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:But if the electricity is abundant and cheap enough, no one will care.

Which doesn't mean that the future vehicles are directly hydrogen powered. Still likely makes economic sense to use fixed fuel cells and put batteries in the vehicles.

This doesn't mean that the current fuel cell development is wasted spending. There may be fuel cells in the future, just likely not in cars/SUVs.

Uh huh, and we'll just have to wait and see how things shake out.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Jul 29, 2018 4:42 pm

Zythryn wrote:Currently, I believe all highway capable FCVs do have batteries.
This is what makes it so silly not to include a plug, the batteries are already there!

As I said, they're all FCHEVs. I suspect the question is whether there is capacity for private LDVs to incorporate bigger, heavier and more costly battery packs at this time to be worth the trouble. In a local delivery van like the Kangoo Z.E., space/weight isn't a major issue and neither is speed, so you can go big battery/small F.C. Rex and just double the battery range. On a long range highway-capable FCEV, You want to be running on the stack most of the time, with the battery just for local use/accel/regen.

Honda and Hyundai (can't remember for sure about Toyota, but they had similar gains) both made a big deal about their current gen of stack having boosted its power density enough (about 90-100% over the previous gen) to allow everything stack-related to fit under the hood. If we assume that the next gen. will only boost density by another say 33-50% instead of doubling, that may well buy them enough volume/weight/cost savings to put a big enough pack in (and the latter will likely have also improved in cost/volume/weight) to make a plug useful. Or not, as the case may be.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:07 am

GRA wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:You can't just brush the demand issue with a "prediction is difficult" blurb and tie it to Tesla as if they've had any trouble selling more than 2000 per year. This is the sophistry I've accused you of before.


But Tesla claimed they could produce X number of cars by Y date, and have repeatedly failed those predictions. They also thought they'd get at most 100k reservations for the Model 3, and more than tripled that in the first week. I predicted (after the initial surge of sales) that the i3 was far too expensive and that the Soul EV would be far outsell it (actually, most of the i3s have been RExs, so I was only partly wrong on that one). And so on. It certainly didn't help both Toyota or Honda both blew the prediction big time that most customers would choose FCEVs that to most people are ugly or weirdmobiles (not to forget Toyota's equal misstep with the base Gen 4 Prius). Then there's the monthly if not weekly predictions of future EV uptake by various think tanks, which have one thing in common - the numbers are all over the place.


If you're going to be so obviously obtuse, then I would have a more productive time arguing with a brick wall. Good day sir.
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WetEV
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:38 am

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:But if the electricity is abundant and cheap enough, no one will care.

Which doesn't mean that the future vehicles are directly hydrogen powered. Still likely makes economic sense to use fixed fuel cells and put batteries in the vehicles.

This doesn't mean that the current fuel cell development is wasted spending. There may be fuel cells in the future, just likely not in cars/SUVs.

Uh huh, and we'll just have to wait and see how things shake out.


As this will likely take many decades, I doubt if I'll live that long. However, near term hydrogen fuel cell cars only exist where someone else pays more than half of the cost of the fuel and of the car. As BEVs are likely to be commercial successes without subsidies in the near term, years not decades, the subsidies for hydrogen are likely to be under attack. It might be wisest for hydrogen to shift to application that can make commercial sense, such as aviation and seasonal storage of energy.
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