Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: GRA wrote: Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Even if Toyota hits their costs savings (for producing EV's), they probably won't hit their sales target. As a matter of fact, they didn't hit their 2016 (~1000 of 2000) and 2017 (~1800 of 3000) targets! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-toyo ... B720151014
2018 YTD sales don't look pretty either (projected to be less than 2017): http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-da ... ota-mirai/
With such a capable manufacturer, production capacity isn't their issue.
Toyota's desire to increase FCEV production to 30k/year is a sign hubris.
FC stack production capacity is
the issue, as their designer said a couple of years ago (I posted the article where he discussed that, I believe in the H2 and FCEV topic two or three years back. Stack production was limited to about 3k/year at that time IIRR by the amount of hand work and inspection required, and they still had high scrappage rates. [Edit
] Found it, and here's the link:
Toyota Mirai Production Ceiling Is 3,000 Units Per Year
Learning how to avoid that and let the machines do the work was the key to scaling up into mass production, and they've put a lot of effort into that. As to not meeting sales projections, sure, prediction is difficult, especially when it's about the future. Just ask Tesla. In the meantime, Toyota can sell lots of Primes at a profit.
Again with the segue?!
Your link doesn't support your claim that stack production capacity is the issue. My link showed them projecting production to be 3000 in 2017 (your link doesn't contradict it), and they met that goal. As I said, production rate isn't a problem for Toyota.
Of course it is. As I've said many times before (including just a page or two back in this thread), cost is the main issue H2 and FCEVs need to overcome to become commercially viable. If you can't build stacks in sufficient quantities at a low enough price, FCEVs can't be viable regardless of what happens with the price of H2 and its infrastructure. By the same token, should resource and/or production constraints limit the ability to produce enough battery packs for BEVs at a low enough price, they can't become mass market viable either.
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:You can't just brush the demand issue with a "prediction is difficult" blurb and tie it to Tesla as if they've had any trouble selling more than 2000 per year. This is the sophistry I've accused you of before.
But Tesla claimed they could produce X number of cars by Y date, and have repeatedly failed those predictions. They also thought they'd get at most 100k reservations for the Model 3, and more than tripled that in the first week. I predicted (after the initial surge of sales) that the i3 was far too expensive and that the Soul EV would far outsell it (actually, most of the i3s have been RExs, so I was only partly wrong on that one). And so on. It certainly didn't help that Toyota or Honda both blew the prediction big time that most customers would choose FCEVs that to most people are ugly or weirdmobiles (not to forget Toyota's equal misstep with the base Gen 4 Prius). Then there's the monthly if not weekly predictions of future EV uptake by various think tanks, which have one thing in common - the numbers are all over the place.
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:Their Prius prime and mirai sales are empiracle evidence of their hubris. They have actual data showing which the customers prefer and can live with, but they've ignored it.
It was always obvious that at current prices and with limited infrastructure, a PHEV is far more practical and well as affordable for most people compared to an FCEV, and that a PHEV would have higher sales for years. This is news? That the Prime also happens to be better looking as well doesn't hurt either.
[Edited to fix typos].