GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jul 30, 2018 11:22 am

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
GRA wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:You can't just brush the demand issue with a "prediction is difficult" blurb and tie it to Tesla as if they've had any trouble selling more than 2000 per year. This is the sophistry I've accused you of before.


But Tesla claimed they could produce X number of cars by Y date, and have repeatedly failed those predictions. They also thought they'd get at most 100k reservations for the Model 3, and more than tripled that in the first week. I predicted (after the initial surge of sales) that the i3 was far too expensive and that the Soul EV would be far outsell it (actually, most of the i3s have been RExs, so I was only partly wrong on that one). And so on. It certainly didn't help both Toyota or Honda both blew the prediction big time that most customers would choose FCEVs that to most people are ugly or weirdmobiles (not to forget Toyota's equal misstep with the base Gen 4 Prius). Then there's the monthly if not weekly predictions of future EV uptake by various think tanks, which have one thing in common - the numbers are all over the place.

If you're going to be so obviously obtuse, then I would have a more productive time arguing with a brick wall. Good day sir.

I often feel much the same way having to repeat the same arguments over and over again, with total lack of comprehension on the other side, but I persevere.
Last edited by GRA on Mon Jul 30, 2018 7:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jul 30, 2018 11:29 am

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:Which doesn't mean that the future vehicles are directly hydrogen powered. Still likely makes economic sense to use fixed fuel cells and put batteries in the vehicles.

This doesn't mean that the current fuel cell development is wasted spending. There may be fuel cells in the future, just likely not in cars/SUVs.

Uh huh, and we'll just have to wait and see how things shake out.

As this will likely take many decades, I doubt if I'll live that long. However, near term hydrogen fuel cell cars only exist where someone else pays more than half of the cost of the fuel and of the car. As BEVs are likely to be commercial successes without subsidies in the near term, years not decades, the subsidies for hydrogen are likely to be under attack. It might be wisest for hydrogen to shift to application that can make commercial sense, such as aviation and seasonal storage of energy.

The most common _forecasts_ (add salt to taste) predict ICE comparable costs for BEVs around 2025, with FCEVs getting there around 2030. The two H2 applications you mention are both underway as well so there's no need to shift, just proceed along multiple lines until the situation clarifies, i.e. when we no longer have to talk about which techs are more 'likely' to succeed commercially without subsidies in this or that niche, but which one(s) do so. Until that time, it's all crystal balling.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jul 30, 2018 2:39 pm

GRA wrote:The most common _forecasts_ (add salt to taste) predict ICE comparable costs for BEVs around 2025, with FCEVs getting there around 2030.


Based on hydrogen from fossil fuels. Renewable hydrogen never breaks even with BEVs.
WetEV
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GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jul 30, 2018 6:26 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:The most common _forecasts_ (add salt to taste) predict ICE comparable costs for BEVs around 2025, with FCEVs getting there around 2030.

Based on hydrogen from fossil fuels. Renewable hydrogen never breaks even with BEVs.

No, those are the forecasted cost breakeven years for BEVs and FCEVs; electricity/H2 costs aren't included. Renewable H2 costs will be dependent on how much if any cost advantage it may have including long-term storage, but (to repeat) H2 doesn't have to be cost-competitive with electricity for BEVs; both of them compete against fossil-fuel costs, but with different operational advantages and disadvantages, so H2 only needs to be competitive with gas - it would obviously be preferable if it were cost-competitive with electricity for BEVs as well, but it isn't and barring a breakthrough with photo- or thermo-catalytic H2 production, won't be.

If charging infrastructure were ubiquitous, BEVs would be the obvious choice everywhere once they hit ICE cost/performance comparability, but infrastructure will also be critical for each tech's success or failure. See https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=26273#p533418 and I imagine this is also related:
Only 0.3% Of Toyota Sales In Europe Were Plug-In Hybrids
https://insideevs.com/only-0-3-of-toyota-sales-in-europe-were-plug-in-hybrids/

13% of Prius sales in Europe were Primes versus a much higher % here, almost certainly reflecting the relative lack of home charging in Europe (the California HOV-lane perk undoubtedly plays a large role also). If you've got to park in a random curbside spot every night a PHEV or BEV doesn't do you any good until all such spots have charging, unless there are an adequate number of dedicated, convenient PEV parking/charging spots, with strict enforcement.

Alternatively, and much cheaper and faster as far as infrastructure requirements, we could see a large and rapid switch to AVs which can drive themselves to/from central (almost certainly wireless) charging stations. A further reduction in the number of required stations will be a major benefit of widespread car-sharing. See:
GCC: Gallup: 30% of all Americans use ride-sharing services; 45% of those aged 18 to 29
https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=26272

The synergy between AVs, wireless charging and car-sharing is huge.

Many decades from now charging infrastructure could be widespread enough to eliminate H2's operational advantages anywhere such infrastructure (currently) isn't, but I believe that's too late, so I've always seen H2/FCEVs and BEVs (plus biofuels) as complimentary for that period.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Rebel44
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:20 am

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:The most common _forecasts_ (add salt to taste) predict ICE comparable costs for BEVs around 2025, with FCEVs getting there around 2030.

Based on hydrogen from fossil fuels. Renewable hydrogen never breaks even with BEVs.

No, those are the forecasted cost breakeven years for BEVs and FCEVs; electricity/H2 costs aren't included. Renewable H2 costs will be dependent on how much if any cost advantage it may have including long-term storage, but (to repeat) H2 doesn't have to be cost-competitive with electricity for BEVs; both of them compete against fossil-fuel costs, but with different operational advantages and disadvantages, so H2 only needs to be competitive with gas - it would obviously be preferable if it were cost-competitive with electricity for BEVs as well, but it isn't and barring a breakthrough with photo- or thermo-catalytic H2 production, won't be.
....


The problem for me is that hydrogen isn't competitive even with gasoline (and I live in the EU, where gasoline costs a lot more than in the USA)

(not even counting the fact that H2 doesn't have any fuelling infrastructure where I live).

BEVs are far easier to justify since their running costs are much lower (in my case around 25% of the cost of gasoline).

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Jul 31, 2018 12:51 pm

Rebel44 wrote:
GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:Based on hydrogen from fossil fuels. Renewable hydrogen never breaks even with BEVs.

No, those are the forecasted cost breakeven years for BEVs and FCEVs; electricity/H2 costs aren't included. Renewable H2 costs will be dependent on how much if any cost advantage it may have including long-term storage, but (to repeat) H2 doesn't have to be cost-competitive with electricity for BEVs; both of them compete against fossil-fuel costs, but with different operational advantages and disadvantages, so H2 only needs to be competitive with gas - it would obviously be preferable if it were cost-competitive with electricity for BEVs as well, but it isn't and barring a breakthrough with photo- or thermo-catalytic H2 production, won't be.
....

The problem for me is that hydrogen isn't competitive even with gasoline (and I live in the EU, where gasoline costs a lot more than in the USA)

(not even counting the fact that H2 doesn't have any fuelling infrastructure where I live).

BEVs are far easier to justify since their running costs are much lower (in my case around 25% of the cost of gasoline).

Uh huh, but the question is will that always be the case? For instance, Denmark and Germany will both be using excess wind (and solar) to make H2, and their other choices are to either curtail the turbines (wasting the potential electrical energy) or else export it, often at a negative spot price, i.e. they have to pay the customers to take it. Using it to make H2 and either put in in cars or inject it into NG pipelines at low %s for storage and use instead makes far better financial sense, and as we move to increasingly high %s of intermittent renewables, having some useful way to soak up and store lots of excess production will be necessary. Denmark's already generated 140% of total demand just from wind at times of low consumption, when they had 42% (2015) of their total annual electricity generated by wind power, and they've since increased the %. Germany is currently lower but still greater than the UK, with lots more to come. The UK's at 15% (2017). Older offshore farms were more expensive, but costs are dropping everywhere with experience, and the UK's got the best wind resources in Europe.

Pumped or compressed air storage are two options, but are site limited. If battery costs drop to the point that mass storage (weeks or even months, not hours or a few days) becomes commercially viable, the justification for using that electricity to make H2 drops radically, but we aren't there yet.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

mux
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:15 pm

However, those plants in Germany and Denmark that you reference are exceedingly tiny (order of 10MW) - many orders of magnitude smaller than the installed battery capacity on the grid - and still produce and consume hydrogen at about an order of magnitude higher round-trip cost than batteries. The only reason these plants were built is to greenwash chemical industries that would otherwise utilize SMR hydrogen, pretty much. They also do not use the hydrogen for electric generation.

Additionally, there is no problem with curtailment at the moment, despite 50%+ renewable capacity on the grid at certain times. Just look at the numbers (page 12) - curtailment is typically confined to less than 1% of generation and more importantly: reasons for curtailment are not necessarily abundance! This is way, way less than any other form of generation. There have been multiple studies and meta-studies, including the Jacobson study, that show renewables penetration up to 80-90% without a need for novel approaches to storage, depending on the level of interconnectivity (which in the EU is very high).

These electrolyzer plants are not an example of a successful, economically viable application of hydrogen production to combat curtailment. We are still quite a ways away from this being even remotely possible, and it really isn't clear that we will ever get there with electrolyzers not dropping in price nearly as quickly as batteries. It may very well be that the future of storage will always have batteries and long-haul transmission as the cheaper option, but only choose hydrogen storage for capacity reasons - as battery production will limit the applicability for at least 2 more decades.

WetEV
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:04 am

GRA wrote:The question is will that always be the case?


Yes, if you do the math. Fixed fuel cells and BEVs are a better deal. Likely to stay so, as well. The reason is efficiency. The BEV can charge off of excess renewable production 80+% of the time, at 90+% efficiency. The fixed fuel cell can supply the rest of the time, and while fixed fuel cell efficiency is poor, perhaps 50% round trip at best, is better than a fuel cell efficiency in a FCEV, due to scale factors and heat recovery. Notice that the poor efficiency is 100% of the time with FCEVs, and only less than 20% with BEVs.
WetEV
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GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:00 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:The question is will that always be the case?

Yes, if you do the math. Fixed fuel cells and BEVs are a better deal. Likely to stay so, as well. The reason is efficiency. The BEV can charge off of excess renewable production 80+% of the time, at 90+% efficiency. The fixed fuel cell can supply the rest of the time, and while fixed fuel cell efficiency is poor, perhaps 50% round trip at best, is better than a fuel cell efficiency in a FCEV, due to scale factors and heat recovery. Notice that the poor efficiency is 100% of the time with FCEVs, and only less than 20% with BEVs.

OTOH, BEV efficiency drops considerably when they have to provide CHP, while FCEV efficiency increases likewise closing the efficiency difference considerably, and bringing operational advantages/disadvantages more to the fore. An FCEV's range will vary a lot less than a BEV's due to HVAC use, which requires much less education of the consumer. Every time a newbie comes to MNL and ask whether a LEAF or some other BEV will work for them, we have to play 20 questions with them, where they live, how far do they need to drive, for how long (so we need to tell them about degradation and SoC range), how fast, what's the climate like, what kind of housing do they live in (how will they charge and where), and on and on. The list of questions needed to determine whether an FCEV will work for someone is much shorter (assuming costs decrease to commercial viability, only the fueling infrastructure buildout matters), and are essentially the same as for an ICE.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

rcm4453
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:25 pm

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:The question is will that always be the case?

Yes, if you do the math. Fixed fuel cells and BEVs are a better deal. Likely to stay so, as well. The reason is efficiency. The BEV can charge off of excess renewable production 80+% of the time, at 90+% efficiency. The fixed fuel cell can supply the rest of the time, and while fixed fuel cell efficiency is poor, perhaps 50% round trip at best, is better than a fuel cell efficiency in a FCEV, due to scale factors and heat recovery. Notice that the poor efficiency is 100% of the time with FCEVs, and only less than 20% with BEVs.

OTOH, BEV efficiency drops considerably when they have to provide CHP, while FCEV efficiency increases likewise closing the efficiency difference considerably, and bringing operational advantages/disadvantages more to the fore. An FCEV's range will vary a lot less than a BEV's due to HVAC use, which requires much less education of the consumer. Every time a newbie comes to MNL and ask whether a LEAF or some other BEV will work for them, we have to play 20 questions with them, where they live, how far do they need to drive, for how long (so we need to tell them about degradation and SoC range), how fast, what's the climate like, what kind of housing do they live in (how will they charge and where), and on and on. The list of questions needed to determine whether an FCEV will work for someone is much shorter (assuming costs decrease to commercial viability, only the fueling infrastructure buildout matters), and are essentially the same as for an ICE.



Range and HVAC use are becoming less of a concern with the 200+ mile range BEVs. All you really have to learn how to do is plug it in when you get home and unplug it when you head off to work, not that hard really.

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