GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:03 pm

JasonA wrote:LOL... how are those Mirai sales doing guys?? Getting close to Tesla or ANY BEV sales?? :lol:

Actually, better than a lot of PEVs, which is to say that a lot of those sell in small amounts. By my count, they'd fall in 24th place for the year (1,155) if they were a PEV, just behind the Hyundai Ionic PHEV and just ahead of the Volvo XC90 T8 on IEVS' scorecard. Other PEVs whose 2018 sales are less than the Mirai include the Soul EV, Smart ED, Cayenne S-E, Clarity BEV, e-Golf, Optima PHEV, GLE 550e, C-Max Energi (disc.), Focus Electric, i8, Sonata PHEV, GLC 350e, S90 T8, Ionic BEV, 740e, CT6, B250e, and S550e.

So, to answer your question, the Mirai has better sales than 19 PEV models including 6 BEVs, over a wide spectrum of MSRPs, both considerably less and considerably more than the Mirai. Many of these, like the Mirai, are California or CARB state-only cars. I imagine they could boost sales by at least 50% if the car weren't so ugly, assuming Toyota could make that many (they say they're now able to) and even with the limited fueling infrastructure that won't see any significant increase until 2019.
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Oct 07, 2018 5:25 am

Yet any of those cars have worldwide sales well in excess of the Mirai, whereas the Mirai is only available in a tiny area, incentivized to a frankly absurd degree, and still only gets a tiny slice of the pie after almost 5 years of availability.

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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:33 am

mux wrote:Yet any of those cars have worldwide sales well in excess of the Mirai, whereas the Mirai is only available in a tiny area, incentivized to a frankly absurd degree, and still only gets a tiny slice of the pie after almost 5 years of availability.
Exactly! and some of those PHEV's or models GRA mentioned are 1st year vehicles or ones NOBODY really even knows about!

We just did a few DriveElectricWeek events and I saw a couple of Hyundai owners that I both talked to and watched people come up to look at the car and they loved it but never knew it existed. :lol:

However... the Mirai is now 5 years old... and HOW MUCH $$$$$$$ gets funneled into that damn car/technology?

Remember GRA... the beginning of this thread ages ago you telling us where the future was and is going...

Welp... we're still here waiting while Tesla M3 sales and everyone else is killing it!

Ohh yeah.. I heard that M3 sales are bigger then Corolla now!

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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Oct 07, 2018 6:49 pm

The above posts say it's been around 5 years now??? The very first post in this thread was mid-2014 and it didn't have a name yet. I remember attending the intro event in 2015. Unless I can't do math right, that is 3 years, not 5.

Given the available service area of the H2 infrastructure, the car seems to be selling fairly well - beating out 19 PEVs, which could be sold anywhere there is a functioning electrical grid. Also, I don't recall Toyota ever indicating this was going to be a mainstream product with large sales volumes. Given the early stage of the FCEV concept, a more apples to apples comparison would be to compare its sales numbers to that of the EV1. The EV1 was 1997 - 1999. Comparing Mirai's 3 year numbers versus BEV numbers at their 21 year mark is kind of silly. Wikipedia lists the EV1 total units as 1,105. So one could say that the Mirai is off to a better start than BEVs. :lol:

If we look on an apples to apples basis, FCEV is winning out over BEVs, which have an 18 year head start.
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RegGuheert
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:11 am

DarthPuppy wrote:Given the available service area of the H2 infrastructure, the car seems to be selling fairly well - beating out 19 PEVs, which could be sold anywhere there is a functioning electrical grid. Also, I don't recall Toyota ever indicating this was going to be a mainstream product with large sales volumes. Given the early stage of the FCEV concept, a more apples to apples comparison would be to compare its sales numbers to that of the EV1. The EV1 was 1997 - 1999. Comparing Mirai's 3 year numbers versus BEV numbers at their 21 year mark is kind of silly. Wikipedia lists the EV1 total units as 1,105. So one could say that the Mirai is off to a better start than BEVs. :lol:

If we look on an apples to apples basis, FCEV is winning out over BEVs, which have an 18 year head start.
You are correcting others' views of history, so let's not then write your own. Toyota started introducing fuel-cell vehicles into the CA market in 2005. For completeness, I'll just quote my entire post here:
RegGuheert wrote:The History Channel aired "Modern Marvels: Cartech of the Future" on January 6, 2005. Here is the entire 90-minute episode on YouTube:



This documentary spent most of the time discussing the past of automobile design and innovation and about 1/4 of its time extolling the virtues of the fuel of the future: hydrogen.

Here is an interesting quote from Toyota:
Jim Press - Then COO of Toyota North America at 49:40 wrote:There's a lot of debate today about what powertrains will emerge tomorrow: internal combustion engines, hybrid-electric, diesel, fuel cells, solar. All of these are great new technologies that are emerging that are making internal combustion engines better.
Did he miss something there? It seems that perhaps Toyota wrote their playbook back at the beginning of this millenium and they are sticking with it. Here is more from Mr. Press:
Jim Press - Then COO of Toyota North America at 1:00:15 wrote:The hydrogen cars of tomorrow are not that far away. We've already sold two in the state of California and they're running. They're full SUVs. Have had great experience from them. We're developing the technology to identify what we can do to commercialize it.
Here's what he has to say about their hydrogen refueling stations:
Jim Press - Then COO of Toyota North America at 1:02:15 wrote:The fact is our current hydrogen fueling station uses tap water. We use electricity through the water to crack the hydrogen out. The hydrogen is compressed, put into the tank of the car and the car drives. Absolutely no pollution. And the electricity that we use here is all renewable, from either solar power, hydro or wind. The only emission from the car is a little bit of water vapor. If you're really thirsty, you could drink what comes out of the tailpipe.
What's not to love about that? Oh, he didn't mention the very low efficiency of this approach. He also didn't mention that most hydrogen comes from fossil fuels.

But he does hint at where the issues lie:
Jim Press - Then COO of Toyota North America at 1:03:03 wrote:Cost has to come down and we need to create a hydrogen infrastructure so people can refuel their hydrogen-powered cars. Those are the two obstacles that are going to take another 15 or 20 years to perfect before they're on the road and common.
Then he makes his predictions:
Jim Press - Then COO of Toyota North America at 1:03:18 wrote:Ten years from now, you'll begin to see hydrogen-powered cars here and there.
O.K. There are a handful out there. But I've never seen one. What I do see "here and there" are BEVs. He goes on:
Jim Press - Then COO of Toyota North America at 1:03:22 wrote:But 15 to 20 years from now they'll be the norm.
Really, it sounds to me like he is describing exactly what is happening with BEVs, not hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.

Fuel-cell vehicles still have *precisely* the same problems they had when he made his prediction over 10 years ago: They are too expensive and there is no refueling infrastructure in place to support their proliferation. Toyota's predictions were so bad that they had better hope that the governments can ramp up their subsidies in order for Toyota and the oil companies to maintain the status quo. In the meantime, the future of transportation is rapidly changing for the better in the form of BEVs.

So, what did Modern Marvel predict for BEVs?

<crickets>

Literally, BEVs were discussed only as a technology of the far past, but there was not a single mention of BEVs being used in the future.
So, yes, Toyota COMPLETELY dismissed BEVs and instead told us these fuel-cell vehicles would be the norm possibly starting in about a year.

I have been driving a BEV for 6.5 years now, and have yet to see a single Toyota Mirai or any other fuel-cell vehicle on the road.
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:07 pm

RegGuheert wrote:[You are correcting others' views of history, so let's not then write your own.


Actually, my assessment is accurate despite your attempt at insults. If you want to count concept cars, etc., then BEVs have a 190 year head start. (Or I suppose it would be more accurate to say 177 years (190 that BEVs have been available vs. 13 for FCEVs). Oh, and since you like linking posts to prove something, read:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_o ... ic_vehicle

In there, it states "In 1828, Ányos Jedlik, a Hungarian who invented an early type of electric motor, created a small model car powered by his new motor." Gee, isn't it nice to have posts that don't take a full page of blather to get to the point?

So I was a little off on my numbers. FCEV has been a market option for 13 years according to you instead of the 3 that the Mirai has been available. Hmm, I thought this was a Mirai thread? By your logic, BEVs have been a market option for 190 years instead of 21. Gee, 190 years on and less than about 1% adoption rate. So using your presumably accurate logic regarding history since you think I rewrite history, BEV has failed (190 years to get 1% adoption is failure). FCEV is off to a much better start. :lol:

Again as I mentioned, people were saying that the Mirai has a 5 year sales track record when it only has 3 (that is a fact - not rewriting history even though it doesn't align with the narrative you want). My correcting that is not rewriting history.

BTW - I support BEVs and think that FCEV have a huge infrastructure challenge that makes it the wrong solution from a cost perspective. But claiming I rewrite history is rather trollish. I will attempt to correct clear errors when I encounter them in the interest of keeping things honest.

I suppose I should thank you as I hadn't gotten the number of years for each option accurate. I never proclaimed to exhaustively researched every post I make, especially when the relevant models to hit the market are within easy recollection.
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GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:40 pm

mux wrote:Yet any of those cars have worldwide sales well in excess of the Mirai, whereas the Mirai is only available in a tiny area, incentivized to a frankly absurd degree, and still only gets a tiny slice of the pie after almost 5 years of availability.

Since Toyota could only make about 3k Mirai stacks annually until recently, the public's appetite has shifted to CUVs from sedans, the fueling infrastructure in California is behind schedule, and to top it off the car's looks are at best polarizing, at worst ugly, it's hardly surprising that the Mirai's numbers haven't increased significantly - they can't. The Clarity FCEV suffers from the many if not all of the same limitations, albeit its looks seem to be slightly less of an issue.

Several things have or are about to change. Toyota now says they've been able to reduce the amount of hand work each stack requires, allowing them to boost production significantly (by an order of magnitude, while reducing costs from around $50k/stack to $11k, with $8k in sight), and they are using two Mirai stacks in the buses and Class 8 tractors that are being introduced here and in Japan. The fueling infrastructure should start to increase much more rapidly next year, as CEC/CARB tightened up the requirements considerably for getting grants in the current round of awards, and most of them went to companies with the experience (First Element, who've built 18 or 19 of the 35 full retail H2 stations in California) and financing (Shell, who also owns or franchises the gas stations where H2 dispensing will be added) to ensure rapid completion. Also, economies of scale through building stations with larger capacities, as well as the learning curve, have dropped the cost/kg. of station capex significantly already, and greater familiarity with the process has shortened the time from permitting through completion.

Several headwinds remain. First, as yet there isn't enough competition between stations to bring the retail cost of H2 down significantly, so leasing (while the manufacturer picks up the fuel tab for three years) is the only rational choice.

Second, while fueling infrastructure construction will pick up significantly in 2019 and 2020, virtually all of it will be in urban areas to provide more people with convenient fueling for routine use. This is necessary to allow sales to grow, but does nothing to expand coverage to new areas for road trips, the usage where FCEVs have considerable operational advantages over BEVs because of longer useful ranges and rapid refueling.

Finally, Toyota and Honda are stuck for a few years yet with a body type that the public has mostly lost interest in and whose looks are controversial (I'm being polite), so major sales growth is unlikely. If priced correctly, I suspect the Hyundai Nexo CUV will see far bigger sales/leases than both the Mirai or Clarity once it arrives.
Last edited by GRA on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:06 pm

JasonA wrote:Remember GRA... the beginning of this thread ages ago you telling us where the future was and is going...

We've already established the unreliability of your recollections of what I've written in this topic even when it was trivial to check, as when you stated that I had started it (it was RegGuheert). Your question (I know, it was just snark) about whether the Mirai had outsold any BEVs is just another example of your making statements without making even the slightest effort to check their accuracy. I look forward to you providing direct quotes from me as to where I though the future was and is going - I know what I've been writing for 7 years. Here's my three earliest posts in this topic:

GRA wrote:
Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:33 pm

TomT wrote:Could they have made it any less attractive?! It's almost as if Toyota doesn't WANT anyone to buy it...

I think that's just the concept car they've been schlepping around to auto shows. I can't imagine Toyota producing anything so awkward looking in this day and age, although I can remember Toyota Crowns from the late '60s/early '70s, when they did.

That Japan price presumably includes VAT, 8% this year and 10% next, plus whatever other taxes Japan imposes.

Followed shortly thereafter by:
GRA wrote:If this article

http://insideevs.com/toyota-reveals-700 ... europe-us/

is correct, that really IS what it will look like. If accurate, I'm almost speechless. Even Subaru, in their worst days (I'm talking waaaay beyond the B9 Tribeca), never put into production anything with such oddball proportions and polarizing styling for so many people.


Followed a couple of hours later by:
GRA wrote:Wed Jun 25, 2014 5:21 pm
evnow wrote:What evchels means is that in person it doesn't look that bad.

I know what she meant, and I'll have to take her word for it for the moment (just as I have to take some people's word that the i3 isn't as butt ugly in person* as it appears in pictures, because I haven't seen one yet). Besides, looks are all subjective.

evnow wrote:In any case, why would Toyota care - if they just want to lease a few hundred a year ?

The market for them at that price, and with the current limited infrastructure, is going to be small in any case, so why limit it even further by using some extremely unusual, not to say bizarre, styling cues? I mean, what exactly is the point with that whole 'hood lifted off the fenders' gimmick? And the nose side intakes look like they were stolen from a F-18. Then someone apparently decided that one side crease wasn't enough, so it's got two, the second curving down the rear fender and extending across the fuel filler door, and looking at the video I realized those fenders reminded me of the Echo/1st Gen Prius, not a good thing.

The steeply dropping rear roof line looks like backseat headroom is going to be limited, and only the rear view doesn't make me gag or cry "what the hell were they thinking?!" To me it's a mish mash, a camel designed by a _drunken_ committee. YMMV.

*Having seen many i3's subsequently, it's not bad looking. I wish I could say the same for the Mirai.
Last edited by GRA on Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:10 am

DarthPuppy wrote:Also, I don't recall Toyota ever indicating this was going to be a mainstream product with large sales volumes.
In fact, Toyota DID predict that fuel cells would be a mainstream product with large sales volumes about now. Since you completely ignored it, I'll post it yet again:
RegGuheert wrote:Then he makes his predictions:
Jim Press - Then COO of Toyota North America at 1:03:18 wrote:Ten years from now, you'll begin to see hydrogen-powered cars here and there.
O.K. There are a handful out there. But I've never seen one. What I do see "here and there" are BEVs. He goes on:
Jim Press - Then COO of Toyota North America at 1:03:22 wrote:But 15 to 20 years from now they'll be the norm.
Really, it sounds to me like he is describing exactly what is happening with BEVs, not hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.
DarthPuppy wrote:Actually, my assessment is accurate despite your attempt at insults.
Sorry, but I have not insulted you. If you feel insulted, that's all your doing.
DarthPuppy wrote:If you want to count concept cars, etc., then BEVs have a 190 year head start. (Or I suppose it would be more accurate to say 177 years (190 that BEVs have been available vs. 13 for FCEVs). Oh, and since you like linking posts to prove something, read:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_o ... ic_vehicle

In there, it states "In 1828, Ányos Jedlik, a Hungarian who invented an early type of electric motor, created a small model car powered by his new motor." Gee, isn't it nice to have posts that don't take a full page of blather to get to the point?
Blather? Perhaps you don't like me pointing out, yet again, the fact that Toyota has been telling us for over a decade that H2 FCVs would be commonplace by now or within the very near future. They are not. And their most recent pronouncements that they will be commonplace in another decade are incorrect. You can record that as MY prediction. Let's be clear: Infrastructure is only one minor obstacle that H2 FCVs face. The main one is fatal for the transportation application: extremely low energy efficiency.

And since you are so interested in writing about the history of these things, here are some more facts that should interest you.

Fuel cells were first invented in 1839, only 39 years after Alessandro Volto invented the modern battery. But after nearly 180 years of development, the modern fuel cell still suffers from extremely low energy efficiency when compared with the modern battery. The reason is that batteries underwent a major breakthrough with the invention of the Li-ion battery. Specifically, the Li-ion battery achieves a round-trip energy efficiency of over 98% while the fuel cell, when fueled using water and hydrolysis, suffers a round-trip efficiency of less than 1/2 that value. As a society, we simply cannot afford to put such wasteful energy consumers into widespread use.

As far as modern H2 FCVs, GM is credited with developing the first one in 1966. The GM Electrovan was such a beautiful machine, I cannot imagine why no one wanted it! :D

Image

Image

No, fuel cells weren't born yesterday. They weren't even born in the previous century. But they still are far inferior to batteries.
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:32 am

In general, having been on the hydrogen train since 2005 now, actively working on FCEVs for 4 years and having been very aware in an enthusiast kind of way of hydrogen vehicles since their renaissance in 1999-2000, I've personally gone through this whole cycle of enthusiasm, interest, hopefulness, denial and finally acceptance a couple of times now. I recognize myself in people like GRA but man, it's so much better for your health if you just face the facts and drop the religion.

The view I have these days are boren out of insights you only get from a combination of academic honesty and lots of time to think about things. I've had 10+ years to mull things over before I got to as strong and well-founded of an opinion as I do now. There is no shame in hoping and believing, I mean, lots of people are still religious these days even though if you're honest with yourself it's blindingly obvious there's no such thing as a god or gods. Hydrogen, nuclear power and to some extent the future relevance of fossil fuels are the big religions of energy these days. People believe in them and only seem to be strengthened in their views and beliefs the more you tell them it's never going to go anywhere. And the most ardent 'haters' are often the ones, like me, that once belonged to that religion.

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