GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:06 pm

mux wrote:In general, having been on the hydrogen train since 2005 now, actively working on FCEVs for 4 years and having been very aware in an enthusiast kind of way of hydrogen vehicles since their renaissance in 1999-2000, I've personally gone through this whole cycle of enthusiasm, interest, hopefulness, denial and finally acceptance a couple of times now. I recognize myself in people like GRA but man, it's so much better for your health if you just face the facts and drop the religion.

The view I have these days are boren out of insights you only get from a combination of academic honesty and lots of time to think about things. I've had 10+ years to mull things over before I got to as strong and well-founded of an opinion as I do now. There is no shame in hoping and believing, I mean, lots of people are still religious these days even though if you're honest with yourself it's blindingly obvious there's no such thing as a god or gods. Hydrogen, nuclear power and to some extent the future relevance of fossil fuels are the big religions of energy these days. People believe in them and only seem to be strengthened in their views and beliefs the more you tell them it's never going to go anywhere. And the most ardent 'haters' are often the ones, like me, that once belonged to that religion.

Ain't no religion here, just an interest in the tech (as I have with batteries) without believing they're the second coming, the answer to life, the universe and everything, or even a guaranteed success. To me, it's just one of two possible ZEV techs that may get us off fossil-fueled transportation. I'll be happy if either or both succeed, but I'm not emotionally invested in either of them. I'll weigh the advantages and disadvantages of each, and recommend they be used appropriately. Just as I've been doing with AE for 30-odd years now, and AFVs for 20.

What I care about is providing sustainable transportation (which may include some amount of biofuels) that people want. How that's done is of secondary priority to me at this time. And now, to avoid yet another extended repetition of the OT and never-ending debate about FCEVs vs. BEVs (when I consider it most likely they'll end up being complimentary), I'll end.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:00 pm

GRA wrote:
mux wrote:In general, having been on the hydrogen train since 2005 now, actively working on FCEVs for 4 years and having been very aware in an enthusiast kind of way of hydrogen vehicles since their renaissance in 1999-2000, I've personally gone through this whole cycle of enthusiasm, interest, hopefulness, denial and finally acceptance a couple of times now. I recognize myself in people like GRA but man, it's so much better for your health if you just face the facts and drop the religion.

The view I have these days are boren out of insights you only get from a combination of academic honesty and lots of time to think about things. I've had 10+ years to mull things over before I got to as strong and well-founded of an opinion as I do now. There is no shame in hoping and believing, I mean, lots of people are still religious these days even though if you're honest with yourself it's blindingly obvious there's no such thing as a god or gods. Hydrogen, nuclear power and to some extent the future relevance of fossil fuels are the big religions of energy these days. People believe in them and only seem to be strengthened in their views and beliefs the more you tell them it's never going to go anywhere. And the most ardent 'haters' are often the ones, like me, that once belonged to that religion.

Ain't no religion here, just an interest in the tech (as I have with batteries) without believing they're the second coming, the answer to life, the universe and everything, or even a guaranteed success. To me, it's just one of two possible ZEV techs that may get us off fossil-fueled transportation. I'll be happy if either or both succeed, but I'm not emotionally invested in either of them. I'll weigh the advantages and disadvantages of each, and recommend they be used appropriately. Just as I've been doing with AE for 30-odd years now, and AFVs for 20.

What I care about is providing sustainable transportation (which may include some amount of biofuels) that people want. How that's done is of secondary priority to me at this time. And now, to avoid yet another extended repetition of the OT and never-ending debate about FCEVs vs. BEVs (when I consider it most likely they'll end up being complimentary), I'll end.


Let's see now. The opinion of someone who's used both BEV's and FCEV's versus that of someone who has never lived with neither - test drives and reading about other's experiences is not the same. Who's opinion should we value here?
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
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May '17 - 7300 mi / 363
Feb '18 - 20.5k mi / 333

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TonyWilliams
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:47 am

GRA wrote: And now, to avoid yet another extended repetition of the OT and never-ending debate about FCEVs vs. BEVs (when I consider it most likely they'll end up being complimentary), I'll end.


End? Is that it? The last “not-a-hydrogn-dude-hydrogen dude” on this forum is hanging up his spurs?

I’ll give you this; unlike the hydrogen dude from Texas (AndyH?) who berated everybody with his hydrogen-dude-ness, (and then he flamed out like a burst hydrogen tank), you have always maintained your composure.

I never understood how anybody could be so myopic about their own very unique personal situation when debating this stuff, and I’m even less impressed that you have “no skin in the game” about which you speak. Virtually EVERYBODY here, without exception, knows either EVs or H2 first hand. But not you!

Here’s the obvious; no current transportation technology is perfect, nor will there ever be perfect. I don’t know even if we will have personal cars in 200 years. But, we humans accepted horse shit all over the streets for thousands of years, until something better came along, and yet some people still clung to their “Subaru horse”. I suppose a few of those those people hotly debated how it met their personal needs, and were not bashful about telling others what they should think about the Ford Model T or Stanley Steamer.

Obviously, an EV could work for you. You don’t want it to. I’m equally certain a diesel, gasoline or hydrogen powered car would, too. I fell empathy for you, because you’re a dog chasing his own tail in circles... except a dog is happy while doing it.

Good luck with your gasoline car and the gasoline infrastructure that you support with it.

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:27 pm

TonyWilliams wrote:
GRA wrote: And now, to avoid yet another extended repetition of the OT and never-ending debate about FCEVs vs. BEVs (when I consider it most likely they'll end up being complimentary), I'll end.


End? Is that it? The last “not-a-hydrogn-dude-hydrogen dude” on this forum is hanging up his spurs?

I’ll give you this; unlike the hydrogen dude from Texas (AndyH?) who berated everybody with his hydrogen-dude-ness, (and then he flamed out like a burst hydrogen tank), you have always maintained your composure.

I never understood how anybody could be so myopic about their own very unique personal situation when debating this stuff, and I’m even less impressed that you have “no skin in the game” about which you speak. Virtually EVERYBODY here, without exception, knows either EVs or H2 first hand. But not you!

Here’s the obvious; no current transportation technology is perfect, nor will there ever be perfect. I don’t know even if we will have personal cars in 200 years. But, we humans accepted horse shit all over the streets for thousands of years, until something better came along, and yet some people still clung to their “Subaru horse”. I suppose a few of those those people hotly debated how it met their personal needs, and were not bashful about telling others what they should think about the Ford Model T or Stanley Steamer.

Obviously, an EV could work for you. You don’t want it to. I’m equally certain a diesel, gasoline or hydrogen powered car would, too. I fell empathy for you, because you’re a dog chasing his own tail in circles... except a dog is happy while doing it.

Good luck with your gasoline car and the gasoline infrastructure that you support with it.

Tony, I ended the post before it got into yet another OT debate; I'm not ending my participation here. As noted many times before, I've driven many BEVs and FCEVs and lived with one of the former for a week 20 years ago, but my comments about their relative strengths and weaknesses are general, not specific (except when I make them so). We obviously have very different views about the lifetimes we demand from our cars, Tony - you've bought more than twice as many cars since 2011 when I became a member here as I've owned in my life, and I'm a couple of years older than you.

As to your statement that "Obviously, an EV could work for you. You don't want it to." No, it couldn't yet, but it's getting close, and as to my not wanting one to, that's ridiculous. I'll be happy when one can.

I need several things to happen before they will work for me: The CEC building the QC infrastructure to/through Yosemite and down the east side of the Sierra they've been promising for the past year or two (or a similar building of the H2 fueling infrastructure, although less of that would be needed owing to FCEV's better range), and an AWD BEV (or FCEV) with adequate range at an acceptable price, plus relatively inexpensive home or public charging or fueling. The Kia Niro BEV is getting close to my minimum requirements, and I'm going to take a good look at it and consider it, even though it's not AWD and its range is a bit short.

Backing that up, after several years of gentle persuasion I've got a still somewhat tentative commitment from my landlord to put PV here (I'd long since done a basic scoping out of the suitability, and he's asked me to look at the estimates when he gets them), and if the two of us can work out a long-term lease for me (I've already been here 18 years) I'd pay to install an L2 circuit for charging. Actually, the PV isn't essential to that, as the whole city contracts for green power. Anyway, that's not likely to happen before next year at the earliest, which will be about the time that the CEC (and EA) networks start to be useful to me and longer range CUV BEVs and FCEVs appear (the latter along with its fuel still far too expensive, we'll see about the former). So, there's a convergence of factors that likely point to 2019 or 2020 as the earliest time when an EV becomes a practical option for me.

Of course, that assumes that I buy another car at all, when the more suitable transport methodology for me given my very limited auto usage* is intermodal MaaS. I believe that is likely the future of transportation, for urban residents at least, saving considerable amounts of money. I consider it ludicrous to spend tens of thousands on a vehicle that even for daily auto commuters sits unused 90+% of the time (even higher % for someone like me), once we have another option of roughly equal convenience at much lower cost.

I expect the advent of AV EVs will be the trigger for mass-market adoption of that. Personal auto ownership (along with driver's licenses) will likely seem bizarre to most people two or three decades from now. The question for me then becomes do I spend tens of thousands for another car for what (to me) is likely to be a short useful lifetime until those car-shared AVs used in MaaS become available, or do I stick with the ICE car I have now so I can give up car ownership entirely a few years down the road? The rate at which those services are likely to appear will heavily factor into my decision.


*My 15+ year-old Subie has 66k miles on it, with annual usage dropping considerably over the past few years as I put even more emphasis on avoiding its use, including not taking any out-of-state road trips until I can do so in a ZEV. I'd hoped to be able to resume those several years before now, but not even Tesla's SC network yet reaches many of the places I want to visit, even if their cars weren't far too expensive.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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TonyWilliams
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:20 pm

I can’t imagine a SINGLE place in the lower 48 states that I can’t drive a Tesla Model 3 LR with 310 miles of range. It’s avaible with AWD (all Tesla cars are).

You don’t need to wait for the government to procpvide you with government sponsored charging (or government paid for hydrogen).

Turo the thing out when you don’t use it. You could charge up at a local Supercharger once a month or so.

Given your vast experience with an EV, let me suggest that you either “don’t know what you don’t know”, or choose not to learn.

Go ahead.. pick a spot that I couldn’t drive a bone stock Tesla Model 3 from the S.F. Bay Area.

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:52 pm

TonyWilliams wrote:I can’t imagine a SINGLE place in the lower 48 states that I can’t drive a Tesla Model 3 LR with 310 miles of range. It’s avaible with AWD (all Tesla cars are).

We obviously go different places, and do different things when we get there. I not only can imagine it, I've run the trips using EVTriplanner.
And even if I could afford a car that currently starts at $49k (more with AWD, and I'm not willing to pay that much for any car given my limited usage; they just aren't worth that much of my life. The first new car I bought (in 1988) cost me $15,227 out the door (incl. TTL); the car that replaced it 15 years later after it was stolen, which I have now, was $24,344 ditto, so as it's approaching 16 years on from that, I'm willing to pay no more than $35k OTD. Besides,the Model 3's not a hatch/wagon/CUV, and it's longer and wider than I need or want, which is an issue on some of the dirt roads I drive on.[/quote]

TonyWilliams wrote:You don’t need to wait for the government to procpvide you with government sponsored charging (or government paid for hydrogen).

Turo the thing out when you don’t use it. You could charge up at a local Supercharger once a month or so.

Sorry, if I own a car, I'm not letting anyone I don't know use it. My cars last a long time because I take care of them, even when i drive them a lot more than I have this one. and unlike this one, Once I have access to a ZEV I'll be free to resume taking the out-of-state trips I've been putting off for years while I've waited for a ZEV that met my needs, and will be retired in not too many more years so I'll be putting a lot more miles on it, and range degradation will be an issue.

TonyWilliams wrote:Given your vast experience with an EV, let me suggest that you either “don’t know what you don’t know”, or choose not to learn.

My experience, limited though it is, answered the big questions for me as regards range, charging speed and needed infrastructure. If a car can't meet those requirements, the rest doesn't matter.

TonyWilliams wrote:Go ahead.. pick a spot that I couldn’t drive a bone stock Tesla Model 3 from the S.F. Bay Area.

Okay, off the top of my head the trailhead east of Likely in the South Warner Mtns SE of Alturas. Or Great Basin N.P. via U.S. 50 across Nevada. Or Utah from Blanding through Capitol Reef down to Bryce Canyon and on to Zion. I've done all of those, and want to again. We still need one in Kayenta, AZ, which Tesla has been putting back annually for 3 years now. How about Glacier National Park - still no SC in Kalispell (put back for another year), or the three along I-15 (Helena/Great Falls/Shelby), let alone one at/west of St. Regis on I-90 to avoid the detour to Superior?

Oh, and you're not you, you're me, which means you're going to be driving the car directly to and parking it at trailheads often many miles up a dirt road with no electricity or any other services bar maybe a table and pit toilet, while you hike, backpack, climb or cross-country ski, it's often cold and/or you've needed to make thousands of feet of elevation gain to get there so range is decreased, your free time is limited and you aren't going to stay in RV parks or motels and spend as little time as possible at restaurants enroute, so only QCs are useful to you. I could add many more destinations that I've tried using EVtripplanner and can't get to (and return, of course) given the above, but you get the idea. In short, off-interstates, the SC network still falls far short of what's needed to get me where I want to go.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:11 pm

TonyWilliams wrote:I can’t imagine a SINGLE place in the lower 48 states that I can’t drive a Tesla Model 3 LR with 310 miles of range.


St John, North Dakota

Ok, you could get there with this stop:

https://www.plugshare.com/location/160654

That's correct exactly one L2 station can help.


Or several different RV campgrounds.

9 hours of L2, coming and going.

Places like this are getting harder to find.
WetEV
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Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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WetEV
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:26 pm

GRA wrote:Okay, off the top of my head the trailhead east of Likely in the South Warner Mtns SE of Alturas.


This one?

https://www.evtripplanner.com/planner/2-8/?id=8ywz81ko
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:03 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:Okay, off the top of my head the trailhead east of Likely in the South Warner Mtns SE of Alturas.


This one?

https://www.evtripplanner.com/planner/2-8/?id=8ywz81ko

Haven't been in via that trailhead yet, but close; I'm normally going in further north. Find Mill Creek Falls Campground a bit north and then follow Clear Lake Rd. east past the Falls trhd. to its end: 41.275219, -120.290382. Via Reno is one route and I've done it that way, albeit not the one I normally would take - I-5 to Redding, then across 299 to Alturas and south is slightly faster, and arguably more scenic off the interstate; Cutting over from Red Bluff via Chester and Susanville is another option; I haven't done that yet, but would like to.

Tesla had SCs in Redding, Adin and Susanville on their list of 2018 coming soon SCs, but pushed the last two back to 2019 (Redding is still shown as 2018, but no progress is known at Supercharge.info), and as I've noted in the Tesla SC topic they've virtually stopped expansion of coverage SCs, concentrating on increasing capacity in urban areas for all the Model 3s (that presumably can't charge at home).

Also, you're assuming 100% charge and 72 deg temps with no allowances for speed, cold, degradation, rain, headwinds etc. One of my requirements is to have the car meet my needs for at least 12 but preferably 15 years or more with the original battery and at the speeds I usually drive, any time of the year I'm likely (pun noted but not intended) to go somewhere, which definitely includes fall and probably someday there, winter (haven't X-C skied in the Warners yet), with anything up to a full load, so all those must be allowed for. To allow for degradation, I never figure on charging to 100% but a max. of 90% round trip from and return to an SC/QC, and that understates the degradation over that period of time. Travel between SCs/QCs should never require charging to more than 80%, and I want a minimum reserve of 15% but not less than 30 miles in the same conditions.

Try the Reno-Trailhead-Reno round trip with 1,000 lb. load, 32 deg. outside temp, speed factor 1.05 (more like 1.1 now, but we'll assume I'll be willing to take it a little easier once I retire) and 5 mph headwinds, start at 80% and 90% and end at 15%. Then try it from Corning SC. And then try it with a Model 3SR, which is at least theoretically in my price range, even if the Model 3 is the wrong body type. Which is why I'll be checking the Niro out, albeit it isn't AWD. And the Niro requires CEC and EA to build the CCS network in the places I've mentioned plus many others, but Tuolumne Mdws/395 access is the absolute minimum requirement for a car to be anything more than a very expensive lawn ornament (if I had a lawn) for me.
Last edited by GRA on Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 9510
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:04 pm

WetEV wrote:
TonyWilliams wrote:I can’t imagine a SINGLE place in the lower 48 states that I can’t drive a Tesla Model 3 LR with 310 miles of range.


St John, North Dakota

Ok, you could get there with this stop:

https://www.plugshare.com/location/160654

That's correct exactly one L2 station can help.


Or several different RV campgrounds.

9 hours of L2, coming and going.

Places like this are getting harder to find.

Unfortunately, those are exactly the sorts of places I'm most likely to want to visit. Well, not St. John, N.D., or really anywhere in N.D :D With only a few exceptions (Devil's Tower, Mt. Rushmore, Carlsbad Caverns and Guadalupe Mtns) I have no need to drive east of I-25 or a line extending northwards from its junction with I-90.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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