...as of this moment, our estimated weekly production has fallen back down to 2,866 and production is now expected to continue to step down over the next three weeks. We've made no changes to the model, so what gives?
The revisions are almost entirely due to new VINs being reported to Bloomberg (Method 2). In early April those numbers jumped by almost 4,000 VINs in a single week, producing a noticeable gap in the dataset. It's not clear what caused the jump, whether Tesla for some reason temporarily skipped over a chunk of VINs or if it was just an artifact of how new customers reported their vehicles to Bloomberg during the surge. Regardless, that portion of our model responded as if a major new surge was underway.
But our model is built to continually adjust its estimates as we receive new data, and the most recent VINs reported to Bloomberg initiated such a correction. Those numbers should continue to revise downward until they reach Tesla's new equilibirum, wherever that may be...