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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 16, 2018 3:41 pm

Seeking Apha is stocking thousands to drive the stock down.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 16, 2018 4:52 pm

Electrek: Tesla is currently holding a hackathon to try to address the two biggest automation bottlenecks to try to recover the areas where automation has been lost:
Electrek wrote:In an attempt to bring back some of that automation, Musk said today that a hackathon is currently underway with the goal to “fix the 2 worst robot production chokepoints.”
Fair criticism, but we’re fixing it fast. Hackathon going on right now to fix 2 worst robot production chokepoints. Looks promising.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 14, 2018
A hackathon is a sprint event where programmers are invited to compete in fixing a problem or creating a product in a short period of time with prize money for the highest performing participants.

The news of Tesla’s holding a hackathon is especially interesting in the context that Musk has been claiming for a while that manufacturing is mostly a software problem right now.
RegGuheert
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GRA
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 16, 2018 5:09 pm

lpickup wrote:
GRA wrote:They've begun delivering Model 3s to Canada, so no need to hold back production to stay under 200k for Q2 - they can control that through deliveries.

I think the question is whether there is enough demand in Canada for RWD vehicles to give them a big enough relief valve to Canada. It appears the deferral rate for AWD is pretty high in Canada (understandably so).

With AWD available to order this week, that doesn't appear to be a major problem (depending on the lead time).
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

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palmermd
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 16, 2018 5:29 pm

lorenfb wrote:
WetEV wrote:
lorenfb wrote:But some claim that Tesla is now even profitable selling the M3 at $35K.


Not enough public information to support that claim. Especially as T esla isn't selling the Model 3 SR yet.


Agreed, naivete on the part of some. But based on past Tesla GAAP financial reports over 5+ years one can conclude:

1. During the production & sales of the MS and during the product development of the MX, Tesla was not profitable.
2. During the production & sales of the MS & MX and during the product development of the M3, Tesla was not profitable.
3. During the production & sales of the MS & MX & M3 to ending YTD Q1 2018, Tesla has not been profitable.

Given the above historical record, one would most likely question the likelihood of Tesla's future profitability even if Tesla
only delivered M3s at ASPs greater than $50K. Furthermore, as the M3 cannibalizes MS sales, a GAAP profitable Tesla
will become even less likely. But then again, to some, Tesla doesn't ever need to be profitable, i.e. it's all about growth
as many shareholders seem to believe, right?

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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu May 17, 2018 6:19 am

GRA wrote:With AWD available to order this week, that doesn't appear to be a major problem (depending on the lead time).


AWD's ordered "late" this week (that's Elon time, so I predict it goes at least into next week) delivered to Canada will not be delivered prior to July 1 anyway. Not to mention Elon said that they weren't going to actual deliver (and probably build) AWDs until after July 1.

In fact I would go so far as to say ANY car ordered after this week will not be delivered until after July 1. Thanks to huge back-to-back invite batches on 4/13 and 4/18 they are still working through a backlog of orders. I ordered mine on 4/21 and have yet to receive a VIN assignment (an indication that the car has completed or is nearing completion and will be shipped soon). We are definitely looking at a 6-8 week backlog at this point (Bay Area and SoCal customers may have slightly better delivery times if they choose to deliver there). Add in the planned factory shutdown 5/26-31, and whatever actions they may or may not have taken to avoid crossing #200K are probably in the past. They could go ahead and start taking orders next week without any fear of impacting whether or not they hit 200K in June or not.
...Lance

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jlv
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri May 18, 2018 11:23 am

edatoakrun wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:Dinosaurs- People seem to be lining up for them.
...in your imagination.

Model S sales peaked in Q 4 2015:
...
But I expect the S and X will appear really old to buyers, once they can test drive more advanced large BEVs from multiple competitors, due to be on the market within the year.

US LEAF sales peaked in Aug 2014, where in that one month they sold almost as many as they've sold in the first 4 months of this year of the new "redesigned" 2018: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ . Are the LEAFs dinosaurs, too?


FWIW, I drove my nice blue dinosaur 200 miles from NYC back to MA the other day. I stopped for a bathroom break at the Greenwich SC, one of the older sites (opened in 2014) with just 4 stalls in each direction (8 total). I was surprised to see a pair of CHAdeMO chargers just across the parking lot, but looking close I found that both had "OUT OF ORDER" signs screwed onto them. And the signs looked like they'd been there a while.

People are going to balk when they find they can't reliably take their competitor "more advanced large BEV" on a real trip, because they can't depend upon the DCFC infrastructure to be either reliable or fairly priced.


(edited to add "US" in front of "LEAF sales peaked")
Last edited by jlv on Fri May 18, 2018 2:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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RegGuheert
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri May 18, 2018 12:50 pm

jlv wrote:LEAF sales peaked in Aug 2014, ...
Nissan LEAF sales peaked in March 2018, with 11,105 vehicles sold worldwide.
RegGuheert
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cwerdna
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun May 20, 2018 3:47 am

Tesla's performance Model 3 delivers 3.5 second 0-60 for $78,000
https://www.engadget.com/2018/05/20/mod ... esla-musk/

I wonder if the claim "simply adding a second motor for all-wheel-drive (and extra reliability -- Musk said either one can drive the car if the other breaks)" is actually true on the 3.

On AWD Model S, there were cases where it didn't help.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun May 20, 2018 9:11 am

Top of the line M3 for $78k compared to what, $140k+ for top of the line MS?
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leafkabob
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun May 20, 2018 10:47 am

I got my Model 3 on April 27. The car is amazing. It is the electric car I always wanted. I have already made a trip from Phoenix to Las Vegas. Made a 20 min. stop at a supercharger in Kingman to make sure I had enough juice, but in hindsight I may have been able to make the entire trip on a full battery charge (310 miles), because of a fairly hefty tailwind. :D

Range anxiety is a thing of the past. I'm still keeping the 2011 Leaf I bought used from MX5 Racer (which had a new, 2015 battery). That car still shows 11 bars, although an 80% charge is now 198 gids. I expect to lose a bar any second now.

But back to the Model 3. This car is going to be wildly popular. It drives like a dream and is super quick. So far the only problem I've had is my Moto G phone isn't working well as key. But Tesla will figure out the solution and in the mean time, I don't care. :mrgreen:
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