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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 21, 2019 12:13 pm

webb14leafs wrote:With regard to demand - I think we're all unaware of how uninformed the general public is on EVs in general and especially Teslas. I've talked to so many people that you would think would be somewhat familiar EVs, but they just have no idea. They love the model 3, but simply dismiss the idea of an EV as unrealistic for them and their driving habits. Tesla really needs to do some marketing to penetrate this market bubble.

So true.

Neighbor is in the market for a new car: "We can't go all electric. The infrastructure isn't there. I can't be hunting for a charging station then sitting around for half an hour"

(They *might* want to take a trip to Orlando, easily within the range of a model 3 to do the round trip without even charging along the way, plus they have two other cars... but it does no good to explain any of that - they have their preconceptions and in a social situation I'm not going to browbeat them; it's none of my effing business what car they buy)

Then this comes up: "We need a hatchback for the surfboard and the dogs"
LTL
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[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 21, 2019 2:03 pm

lorenfb wrote:And you have a crystal ball that can forecast exponential growth, right?


Actually, it's more like "hockey stick" growth, but exponential will be a suitable proxy.

My crystal ball? Battery costs. Battery costs have been falling at a very consistent 19% per year, and is forecast to continue this trend. Maybe you have a reason to believe this will not be the case, but with all the research going on in the battery world, I don't really see an end to this trend in the next 5 years.

Now so far, the cost savings on the battery side have not transitioned directly to cost savings on the vehicle. This is because automakers have focused on adding larger format batteries to address a perceived range limitation. But there have been significant increases in range over the past 8 years, while keeping the price constant. I believe that once we hit an affordable 300 mile (maybe 350) EV, that there will be little reason to keep adding more battery, and instead we will see a shift towards making vehicles more affordable. And eventually there will be a crossover point where the unsubsidized cost of an EV will be less than an equivalent ICE.

And at that point, to the buying public, it simply won't matter whether it's an EV or an ICE. That's the problem I have with people that are saying this or that about "EV demand". Most people are sticker-price focused. They don't necessarily care what's under the hood. They only care about what the sticker says. And the day the sticker on an EV is less than the sticker on an ICE, they are going to get the EV. At this point it stops being a ramp and turns a sharp corner.

Yes, EVs have to become available in the form factors they want. And yes, there will need to be education of the masses about how and where to charge their cars. But the growing number of EV owners are going to be the teachers. And the more EVs that people see on the road, the more people are going to be willing to ask their friends, neighbors and co-workers about them.

If you think any part of this "crystal ball" is wrong, let me know, but you'll be disagreeing with the technology adoption curve that has been repeated throughout history, so it's a tough argument to make. About the only legitimate difference of opinion we can have is the timescale. Yes, with falling battery prices, the percentage of the cost of the battery to the vehicle becomes smaller, so the gains in vehicle price become less significant. But I don't think this is going to take more than another 4-5 years. We now have 3 mass produces vehicles with ranges over 300 miles, with several more knocking on the door at 250 (unfortunately in somewhat limited quantities). 2020 should be a big year in terms of new EV releases. Once we get those vehicles with 300 miles on the market, we can start the process of driving the costs down.
...Lance

Deep Blue Metallic 2018 Tesla Model 3 (31849) (delivered: 7/13/18)
Coulis Red 2016 SV (312310) (bought: 12/23/16 sold: 7/5/18)
Glacier Pearl 2012 SL (016138) (delivered: 12/9/11; traded in 12/23/16)
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Leaf15
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 21, 2019 3:58 pm

Perhaps most common thing folks are overlooking: $35K SR buyers were waiting not for $35K EV, they were waiting for $35K-$7.5K EV and it did not happen. So there is no magic $35K EV, it is much, much lower price target in $28K territory and only VW seems to get it as they are planning for the first mass produced affordable EV to flood the market in 2020.
Leaf 2015 SV CPO traded for 2019 Hyundai Ionic Limited

cwerdna
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 21, 2019 4:17 pm

Leaf15 wrote:Perhaps most common thing folks are overlooking: $35K SR buyers were waiting not for $35K EV, they were waiting for $35K-$7.5K EV and it did not happen. So there is no magic $35K EV, it is much, much lower price target in $28K territory and only VW seems to get it as they are planning for the first mass produced affordable EV to flood the market in 2020.

FWIW, I haven't been monitoring Leaf prices (40 kWh and 62 kWh) but the 238 mile EPA range rated Bolt is below $35K - $7.5K due to heavy discounting.

https://www.chevroletoffremont.com/Vehi ... rice%7Casc is where I bought from. Tax credit on GM EVs/PHEVs is currently $3750.

A problem is that unless someone is poking around and finding out about this in the right places, they may be totally unaware of this, just like I was in Jan 2019 (when the tax credit was $7500 and discounting was less... only about $6K off MSRP).

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

mtndrew1
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 21, 2019 4:18 pm

CNCDA released their Q1 registration numbers yesterday. Model 3 and Model S continue to dominate their segments’ registrations and Tesla’s year-over-year growth (172%) is the highest of any brand.

Model 3: 15805
C Class: 4120
Lexus ES: 2402
3-Series: 2047
4-Series: 1636

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/upload ... -1Q-19.pdf
2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range (100% charge @ 20k miles shows 1.3% degradation)

2013 Nissan Leaf S + QC sold with warranty pack replacement (~35% degradation @ ~40k miles)

2015 Kia Soul EV+ Lease returned 10/14/17 45,000 miles w/ 13.8% degradation.

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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 21, 2019 6:11 pm

Leaf15 wrote:Perhaps most common thing folks are overlooking: $35K SR buyers were waiting not for $35K EV, they were waiting for $35K-$7.5K EV and it did not happen. So there is no magic $35K EV, it is much, much lower price target in $28K territory and only VW seems to get it as they are planning for the first mass produced affordable EV to flood the market in 2020.


Except the id.3 will not be released in the US (at least initially). So your hypothetical $35K-$7500 US tax credit buyers, presumably being in the US, will not be able to buy that car in 2020 (maybe someday, maybe not).
...Lance

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Coulis Red 2016 SV (312310) (bought: 12/23/16 sold: 7/5/18)
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GRA
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 21, 2019 6:24 pm

lpickup wrote:
lorenfb wrote:And you have a crystal ball that can forecast exponential growth, right?

Actually, it's more like "hockey stick" growth, but exponential will be a suitable proxy.

My crystal ball? Battery costs. Battery costs have been falling at a very consistent 19% per year, and is forecast to continue this trend. Maybe you have a reason to believe this will not be the case, but with all the research going on in the battery world, I don't really see an end to this trend in the next 5 years.

Now so far, the cost savings on the battery side have not transitioned directly to cost savings on the vehicle. This is because automakers have focused on adding larger format batteries to address a perceived range limitation. But there have been significant increases in range over the past 8 years, while keeping the price constant. I believe that once we hit an affordable 300 mile (maybe 350) EV, that there will be little reason to keep adding more battery, and instead we will see a shift towards making vehicles more affordable. And eventually there will be a crossover point where the unsubsidized cost of an EV will be less than an equivalent ICE.

And at that point, to the buying public, it simply won't matter whether it's an EV or an ICE. That's the problem I have with people that are saying this or that about "EV demand". Most people are sticker-price focused. They don't necessarily care what's under the hood. They only care about what the sticker says. And the day the sticker on an EV is less than the sticker on an ICE, they are going to get the EV. At this point it stops being a ramp and turns a sharp corner.

Yes, EVs have to become available in the form factors they want. And yes, there will need to be education of the masses about how and where to charge their cars. But the growing number of EV owners are going to be the teachers. And the more EVs that people see on the road, the more people are going to be willing to ask their friends, neighbors and co-workers about them.

If you think any part of this "crystal ball" is wrong, let me know, but you'll be disagreeing with the technology adoption curve that has been repeated throughout history, so it's a tough argument to make. About the only legitimate difference of opinion we can have is the timescale. Yes, with falling battery prices, the percentage of the cost of the battery to the vehicle becomes smaller, so the gains in vehicle price become less significant. But I don't think this is going to take more than another 4-5 years. We now have 3 mass produces vehicles with ranges over 300 miles, with several more knocking on the door at 250 (unfortunately in somewhat limited quantities). 2020 should be a big year in terms of new EV releases. Once we get those vehicles with 300 miles on the market, we can start the process of driving the costs down.

I agree with almost all of this, except the bolded section. When people say they want/need a 300+ mile car, what they mean by that isn't a 300 or 350 mile BEV, before all the subtractions you need to know about and allow for as regards speed, climate, and degradation, but a 300 or 350 mile range like an ICE. Now, if you were to say 300 or 350 miles including all of the above at the end of the car's life, I'd agree with you, but we all know that requires a range at least 1/3rd and maybe 1/2 or more greater than the nominal range when new. The average age of the fleet is I believe now up to 11.8 years, so EoL battery range should be for at least 12 and probably 15 or 20 years.

I've done this calc for my own requirements. I need a car for roadtrips, and keep them until they no longer function (current car is 16 y.o. and still going strong). I've decided that for a BEV to be reasonably useful and cost-effective for me, at a minimum I want to be able to drive from home to Lee Vininga typical weekend trip, without recharging, a distance of 207 miles on freeway and highway, and which requires climbing from about 100 ft. sea level over 9,941 ft. Tioga Pass 193 miles out before descending 14 miles and 3,160 feet to Lee Vining at 6,780 ft., any time of the year and in any conditions when the road's open (which can range from late April to late Nov., but is usually less). I want to be able to do it for at least 12 years and prefer longer, jut as I prefer longer range and faster recharging. I want to be able to do it driving just as I do in my ICE,at the same speeds while freely using heat/AC as desired, and with at least a 30 mile reserve under the same conditions. Having played around with EV tripplanner, there's not a single BEV (including the longest-ranged Teslas) now available that can meet those requirements for that length of time, although some of them can do the trip for part of the time and/or under more restrictive conditions. I've been fairly interested in the)a Kia Niro, but its ability to make the trip is questionable even when new, and would be impossible with degradation. That QCs will eventually be built along the way is true, but irrelevant to my needs, which include time limitations as well as flexibility.

By comparison, my 16 y.o. ICE can still do the trip to Lee Vining and return un-refueled basically free of care, as it has essentially the same range as when it was new, and should I need to refuel it due to unusual circumstances I can do so lots of places in no more time than it takes to use the bathroom. I paid something over $24k cash for it out the door, including TTL, so BEVs have a long way to go before they can meet the same value/capability, even if QCing gets cheaper than gas, and even with the current high gas prices in California that's at best a marginal cost advantage over my 28-30 mpg real world hwy ICE, and still at a disadvantage compared to a moderately-high mpg HEV.

And that's just for my basic weekend trip, not the extended road trips that I want to be able to take again in a ZEV, which require even more range and even faster charging

So, while I agree with you that prices will only start to drop when the range is adequate, how much range will be adequate depends heavily on extending the guaranteed, no worries EoL range of BEVs, and that currently requires such large, heavy and expensive battery packs that I don't see the cross-over point happening until sometime beyond the 4-5 years you suggest.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 21, 2019 6:46 pm

GRA wrote:I've done this calc for my own requirements. ...

So, while I agree with you that prices will only start to drop when the range is adequate, how much range will be adequate depends heavily on extending the guaranteed, no worries EoL range of BEVs, and that currently requires such large, heavy and expensive battery packs that I don't see the cross-over point happening until sometime beyond the 4-5 years you suggest.


GRA, you are a corner case. As are my former neighbors in Boston area who had once taken a road trip... to Springfield MA. A 60kWh Chevy Bolt, LEAF+ or similar could do this trip with ease.

Most people are between these extremes. Remember we don't need to put everyone in an electric car. Just the next 2% over the next 3 years. Then the next 4% over the 3 years after that.
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Leaf15
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 22, 2019 5:02 am

lpickup wrote:Except the id.3 will not be released in the US (at least initially). So your hypothetical $35K-$7500 US tax credit buyers, presumably being in the US, will not be able to buy that car in 2020 (maybe someday, maybe not).
There is saying: "Never say never, never say forever". VW would quickly satisfy demand in EU with ID.3 and they would start selling it in US shortly. There is no reason to not sell it in US, folks would love it here.
Leaf 2015 SV CPO traded for 2019 Hyundai Ionic Limited

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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 22, 2019 6:48 am

GRA wrote:I've done this calc for my own requirements.


They may not meet your own requirements. But that's not what matters. What matters is when carmakers stop focusing on just adding more battery and start focusing on reducing costs.

Even Tesla has started doing this, making the statement that they can pump out more SR+ vehicles that LR vehicles (because they are battery constrained), so that is their focus right now. I personally think that 240 miles is a bit below what I think the sweet spot is (280 miles).

I don't know exactly what the motivations were, but Nissan decided to focus on the sub-$30K niche with the 40kWh LEAF.

VW appears headed in this direction as well, but I will reserve comment until they do prove that they have battery supply and are really serious about entering the market.

And like I said, it may not be 4-5 years. Maybe it's 7-8. But it's coming. Folks that say otherwise are burying their heads in the sand.

P.S. While I do agree with your factoring in battery longevity and temperature into required range calculations, my opinion is that is more of a local travel phenomenon. Cold temps on a trip should only really matter for the first leg of the trip (and maybe not even that if you pre-heat), so range loss is not going to be as extreme as when you are just driving around town. Degradation could be a factor of course, but again, I don't think you have to assume any more than 20% loss. Why? Because by then a battery replacement (if needed) should be reasonably affordable for a 10 year old car, and in a Tesla you are probably only looking at 10-15% loss in that timeframe. Factoring in 50% loss in 12-15 years is far too conservative.

I simulated my long distance trip using various vehicles as well. I found that even the Model 3 SR could handle the trip I take without any timing impact to my driving pattern (although the stops would be strictly regimented), which was a big surprise to me. That's 220 miles of range and slower charging that I can get from my LR. So even if I experience 30% degradation I am not too worried.
...Lance

Deep Blue Metallic 2018 Tesla Model 3 (31849) (delivered: 7/13/18)
Coulis Red 2016 SV (312310) (bought: 12/23/16 sold: 7/5/18)
Glacier Pearl 2012 SL (016138) (delivered: 12/9/11; traded in 12/23/16)
NOGA$4ME Blog

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