Zythryn
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:07 pm

lorenfb wrote:... Even based on the minor availability of charging stations even with the SCs, the typical ICEV
consumer still perceives the abundance of gas stations and a "six minute recharge" as the preference. This not only limits Tesla growth
but also the overall BEV market. ...


That is an interesting supposition.
I would suggest that the percentage of consumers believing that an EV wouldn’t work for them is not static.
As a matter of fact, I would say that percentage is decreasing every year. And that it will decrease at a greater and greater rate as more people get to see and experience EVs.
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Nubo
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:52 pm

lorenfb wrote:Some still fail to see the "forest vs the trees"! Even based on the minor availability of charging stations even with the SCs, the typical ICEV
consumer still perceives the abundance of gas stations and a "six minute recharge" as the preference. This not only limits Tesla growth
but also the overall BEV market. A perfect example is the sales of the Bolt, it's overall a very good BEV with a range that should fit most
consumer needs, but yet it hasn't sold well. The M3 availability in the low end of the BEV market won't change this in the near term.


What the typical consumer doesn't realize (nor did I before getting an EV) is the magnitude of the convenience of home charging. If 95 percent of your miles can be accomplished by home charging you're still far ahead in convenience even if the occasional road trip involves a few 30-45 minute stops vs. the proverbial "5 minute fill-up". In actuality, stopping for gas always seemed to put me at least 15 minutes behind schedule and that's if everything went perfectly.

I realize the average consumer doesn't think that way, but it's something that could be emphasized in EV advertising. One of the joys of having an EV is waking to a "full tank" and never having to pull out of the driveway only to glance at the dash and realize you MUST make a fuel stop and don't have the time.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:18 pm

lorenfb wrote:Some still fail to see the "forest vs the trees"! Even based on the minor availability of charging stations even with the SCs, the typical ICEV
consumer still perceives the abundance of gas stations and a "six minute recharge" as the preference. This not only limits Tesla growth
but also the overall BEV market. A perfect example is the sales of the Bolt, it's overall a very good BEV with a range that should fit most
consumer needs, but yet it hasn't sold well. The M3 availability in the low end of the BEV market won't change this in the near term.


This confuses a lot of issues.

First, you don't need to convince 100% of the customers to grow the market. You just need 5 to 10%. Rest will follow.

Second, most families that can afford a Tesla have multiple cars. If they perceive EV charging on long distance as inconvenient, they'll use the ICE.

You can't compare a Chevy Bolt with a Model 3. Bolt has zero hype (just talked to a Chrysler salesman who hadn't even heard about Bolt). It started with very high prices (on leases) and is competing with Model 3. Most people I know who booked a Model 3 won't be caught dead driving a Chevy.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:32 pm

evnow wrote:[quote=Most people I know who booked a Model 3 won't be caught dead driving a Chevy.



Not even with the big fat gold dated Chevy logo?

Zythryn
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:18 pm

Nubo wrote:
lorenfb wrote:Some still fail to see the "forest vs the trees"! Even based on the minor availability of charging stations even with the SCs, the typical ICEV
consumer still perceives the abundance of gas stations and a "six minute recharge" as the preference. This not only limits Tesla growth
but also the overall BEV market. A perfect example is the sales of the Bolt, it's overall a very good BEV with a range that should fit most
consumer needs, but yet it hasn't sold well. The M3 availability in the low end of the BEV market won't change this in the near term.


What the typical consumer doesn't realize (nor did I before getting an EV) is the magnitude of the convenience of home charging. If 95 percent of your miles can be accomplished by home charging you're still far ahead in convenience even if the occasional road trip involves a few 30-45 minute stops vs. the proverbial "5 minute fill-up". In actuality, stopping for gas always seemed to put me at least 15 minutes behind schedule and that's if everything went perfectly.

I realize the average consumer doesn't think that way, but it's something that could be emphasized in EV advertising. One of the joys of having an EV is waking to a "full tank" and never having to pull out of the driveway only to glance at the dash and realize you MUST make a fuel stop and don't have the time.


Perfect example, thank you.
This type of experience will be difficult to get across in advertising. I believe this will be better relayed to people through experiences of friends, family, neighbors, etc..
This is why the release of the Bolt, Model 3 and 2nd gen Leaf will accelerate the adoption rate even more than it has been.
And yes, the existence of the each of these will help the others.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:52 pm

lpickup wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:Based on this is will remain this way a long time IMO. Even if DC grows out who will do it?


Definitely. When I see the first 10-20 8+ stall 150kW CCS chargers placed at strategic sites (not just city centers or at dealerships with no nearby amenities), I think we are looking at 3-5 years best case before the network reaches a minimally acceptable level. Bears are fond of saying that it's just a "simple" matter of replicating the SC network but it simply takes time to select sites, acquire rights to build, get permits and actually construct and provision the sites. Even if someone were to throw a whole boatload of money at it, you can do so much in parallel, and all these steps take time.

Who will do it? I do think that ultimately car makers will realize that without a workable charging network they will simply not be able to eat into Tesla's market share. So they will do it. I'm not necessarily a fan of automakers controlling charging networks (even Tesla, but at least in their case I can understand why), so I am hoping the way they do it is to subsidize existing independent networks like evGO, Greenlots, etc. But how exactly it will play out is anyone's guess.

Volkswagen will, because they're being forced to. See the Cycle 1 Electrify America plans for the California and the U.S. here: https://www.electrifyamerica.com/our-plan

The question is, what happens after the $2b is all used up? Will public charging be profitable by then, so that it isn't dependent on government subsidies and companies will want to get into it for solid business reasons? Until that happens network growth will remain slow.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:06 pm

GRA wrote:Volkswagen will, because they're being forced to. See the Cycle 1 Electrify America plans for the California and the U.S. here: https://www.electrifyamerica.com/our-plan

The question is, what happens after the $2b is all used up? Will public charging be profitable by then, so that it isn't dependent on government subsidies and companies will want to get into it for solid business reasons? Until that happens network growth will remain slow.


VW will put a very small dent into the buildout. And once they have met their obligations, my sense is that they won't spend another dime and the best we will end up with is a piecemeal network that kind of serves CA and the northeast I-95 corridor, and a few other travel islands. AND, they seem to be taking their sweet time at it. If you watch Tesla Time News on Now You Now (YouTube), you will see that they announce 10 or so new Supercharger site openings each week. VW will have like 350 total in the next 4 years. :roll:
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:49 pm

Zythryn wrote:
Nubo wrote:What the typical consumer doesn't realize (nor did I before getting an EV) is the magnitude of the convenience of home charging. If 95 percent of your miles can be accomplished by home charging you're still far ahead in convenience even if the occasional road trip involves a few 30-45 minute stops vs. the proverbial "5 minute fill-up". In actuality, stopping for gas always seemed to put me at least 15 minutes behind schedule and that's if everything went perfectly.

I realize the average consumer doesn't think that way, but it's something that could be emphasized in EV advertising. One of the joys of having an EV is waking to a "full tank" and never having to pull out of the driveway only to glance at the dash and realize you MUST make a fuel stop and don't have the time.


Perfect example, thank you.
This type of experience will be difficult to get across in advertising. I believe this will be better relayed to people through experiences of friends, family, neighbors, etc....


Actually I think the "Oops I need gas" angle could be very effective advertising. Nothing motivates people as effectively as pain avoidance. Being late for work or a meeting can be a big load of pain.

Driver A looks at the gas gauge and gets a knot in their stomach; has to stop for gas and is embarrassingly late to the job or gets stares as they sheepishly walk in late to a key meeting.

Driver B hops in their 100% full EV and cruises comfortably to work - with smiles, on time.

For extra spice, Driver A's gas station exhibits some of the more unappealing conditions we're all familiar with: smells, noise, grime, maneuvering, no soap or paper towels... perhaps waiting in line behind other harried commuters.... A clear paradigm shift can be quickly illustrated I think.

Now one migh argue that a responsible person doesn't get caught out like that. All I know is that I have been, more times that I'd care to admit. And I know I'm not alone.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:37 pm

Nubo wrote:Actually I think the "Oops I need gas" angle could be very effective advertising. Nothing motivates people as effectively as pain avoidance. Being late for work or a meeting can be a big load of pain.

Driver A looks at the gas gauge and gets a knot in their stomach; has to stop for gas and is embarrassingly late to the job or gets stares as they sheepishly walk in late to a key meeting.

Driver B hops in their 100% full EV and cruises comfortably to work - with smiles, on time.

For extra spice, Driver A's gas station exhibits some of the more unappealing conditions we're all familiar with: smells, noise, grime, maneuvering, no soap or paper towels... perhaps waiting in line behind other harried commuters.... A clear paradigm shift can be quickly illustrated I think.

Now one migh argue that a responsible person doesn't get caught out like that. All I know is that I have been, more times that I'd care to admit. And I know I'm not alone.


Oh most definately. Or getting a drop of gasoline on you and smelling like gasoline at the business meeting.
While this hasn't happened to me, credit card skimmers have become quite popular at gas pumps. Which is yet another issue we can avoid.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:40 pm

evnow wrote:
lorenfb wrote:Some still fail to see the "forest vs the trees"! Even based on the minor availability of charging stations even with the SCs, the typical ICEV
consumer still perceives the abundance of gas stations and a "six minute recharge" as the preference. This not only limits Tesla growth
but also the overall BEV market. A perfect example is the sales of the Bolt, it's overall a very good BEV with a range that should fit most
consumer needs, but yet it hasn't sold well. The M3 availability in the low end of the BEV market won't change this in the near term.


This confuses a lot of issues.

First, you don't need to convince 100% of the customers to grow the market. You just need 5 to 10%. Rest will follow.

Second, most families that can afford a Tesla have multiple cars. If they perceive EV charging on long distance as inconvenient, they'll use the ICE.

You can't compare a Chevy Bolt with a Model 3. Bolt has zero hype (just talked to a Chrysler salesman who hadn't even heard about Bolt). It started with very high prices (on leases) and is competing with Model 3. Most people I know who booked a Model 3 won't be caught dead driving a Chevy.



First, you don't need to convince 100% of the customers to grow the market. You just need 5 to 10%. Rest will follow.


There's was no implication of that, i.e. a need to convince 100%.

Second, most families that can afford a Tesla have multiple cars. If they perceive EV charging on long distance as inconvenient, they'll use the ICE.


Tesla is an anomaly in that the MS/MX are NOT purchased solely for transportation (as you imply), as will be the case for the M3.
So to use those vehicles as representative of a relatively growth BEV transportation vehicle market, is somewhat short sighted.

You can't compare a Chevy Bolt with a Model 3.


Obviously not, as the Bolt has not been designed as a lower-end luxury vehicle. With regard to the M3, many reservation holders
perceive that they are buying a slightly smaller MS with its basic features for $35K, i.e. an awaking for many will occur when
their $35K M3 finally arrives in 2019/2020 outdated.

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