cwerdna
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:09 am

^^^
Indeed. AP1 was based on Mobileye whereas AP2 (current) is not. AP2 was a result of the divorce from Mobileye.

If one hangs around long enough on "TMC", there are tons of folks who've had extensive experience with both (e.g. had a Model S w/AP1 (or still have) and have another vehicle (S or X) with AP2) who will tell you that AP2 is still now generally worse in functionality and not at reliability parity with AP1 (e.g. car will keep wanting to take exits, wants to veer out of lane or into a wall).

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hyperionmark
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:41 am

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:I still have a reservation on a model 3 but I'm not positive I'll get one. They are clearly delayed in manufacturing (and will be more so I think) such that federal tax credit will disappear on this thing. Then I'm looking at a ton of money with little in the way of credits. Hard to justify given what it is.

The federal tax credit was going to disappear on it whether the delay happened or not. Tesla is getting very close to their allotment. If you were pretty early in line you would likely still get the tax credit. Also, the Senate plan has the tax credit still in place.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:01 am

Actually there was a run of 40K model S cars ( gen2 autopilot) that are different than the newest S and 3 platform, there is the old Mobile eye and a new gen system. the first run of the new gen system may require a hardware recall on those 40K cars to get full autonomous driving. The new hardware platform needs all new software as they are not compatible in any way and even if they had been they could not use the mobile eye software. The new software was mandatory and anyone that looks at the details of the design will understand why none of the old code could be leveraged.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:05 am

hyperionmark wrote:
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:I still have a reservation on a model 3 but I'm not positive I'll get one. They are clearly delayed in manufacturing (and will be more so I think) such that federal tax credit will disappear on this thing. Then I'm looking at a ton of money with little in the way of credits. Hard to justify given what it is.

The federal tax credit was going to disappear on it whether the delay happened or not. Tesla is getting very close to their allotment. If you were pretty early in line you would likely still get the tax credit. Also, the Senate plan has the tax credit still in place.



Loss of the credit would likely benefit Tesla, since they are almost done with the credit pulling it makes new entires to the market less competitive in price as they are just starting. To Tesla it's actually more of a win to have it pulled at this point unless they extended the production caps which will never happen.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:39 am

cwerdna wrote:^^^
Indeed. AP1 was based on Mobileye whereas AP2 (current) is not. AP2 was a result of the divorce from Mobileye.

If one hangs around long enough on "TMC", there are tons of folks who've had extensive experience with both (e.g. had a Model S w/AP1 (or still have) and have another vehicle (S or X) with AP2) who will tell you that AP2 is still now generally worse in functionality and not at reliability parity with AP1 (e.g. car will keep wanting to take exits, wants to veer out of lane or into a wall).


This explains a lot. I have recently rode in two newer Teslas and AP had issues both times and the conditions were ideal. Daylight, sunny, well marked lanes, etc.

From my experience, Tesla's AP is far far far from something I would trust completely.
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cwerdna
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:50 am

^^^
I'm not saying these are the best posts on this, but here are a few I quickly found by Googling:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... ner.88597/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... oth.98582/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... ap2.97157/

I'm sure you can find more by Googling for stuff like site:teslamotorsclub.com ap1 ap2 parity and limiting results to some recent period of time like the past 6 months or year.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:15 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
cwerdna wrote:^^^
Indeed. AP1 was based on Mobileye whereas AP2 (current) is not. AP2 was a result of the divorce from Mobileye.

If one hangs around long enough on "TMC", there are tons of folks who've had extensive experience with both (e.g. had a Model S w/AP1 (or still have) and have another vehicle (S or X) with AP2) who will tell you that AP2 is still now generally worse in functionality and not at reliability parity with AP1 (e.g. car will keep wanting to take exits, wants to veer out of lane or into a wall).


This explains a lot. I have recently rode in two newer Teslas and AP had issues both times and the conditions were ideal. Daylight, sunny, well marked lanes, etc.

From my experience, Tesla's AP is far far far from something I would trust completely.



The obvious reason it is not up to snuff with the old one is it is essentially still being improved and still a bit behind the G1 but not significantly. The capabilities in the new hardware are significantly greater than the older platform but it requires massive software development to get it on par and to full auto of course. If Tesla can't deliver on the software side through any means then Tesla is going to get slaughtered, one would expect they can and it's not just an educated guess on their part. Besides, at this point all versions of all AP on all cars today require driver hands on the wheel at all times. I guess many people choose to ignore that detail or drive on twisty mountain roads at night. AP works very well as it is intended, In stop and go traffic it is great and makes those situations tolerable. I have seen the actual in-car video of many Tesla cars avoid major accidents including one of a friend that was "paying attention". The car braked and avoided the car veering into another lane, quite impressive.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:08 am

EVDRIVER wrote:Loss of the credit would likely benefit Tesla, since they are almost done with the credit pulling it makes new entires to the market less competitive in price as they are just starting. To Tesla it's actually more of a win to have it pulled at this point unless they extended the production caps which will never happen.


Well yes, and no. All else being equal, what you say is true. It avoids the headwind that Tesla would face as its competitors had yet to reach the phase out. This would likely mean one quarter for GM, 3-4 quarters for Nissan & BMW, and more than a year for everyone else.

But unfortunately all is not equal.

The effect of losing the tax credit will not permanently harm the industry--the momentum towards electrification and the direction the rest of the world is going in is enough so that it's only a question of when, not if, the industry becomes electric. But the loss of the tax credit will delay the timing of what I call the tipping point, where EVs become cheaper to purchase than ICE and it's game over for ICE.

Now other automakers can afford to wait that out. Tesla cannot. They have spent a ton of money on the Gigafactory and equipment for Model 3. They cannot afford to sell Model 3's at a loss for a year until economies of scale put them in the black.

So the big winner would be GM. Then Nissan and then Tesla.

Now if in fact removal of the credit doesn't happen in 2018 but 2019, then yes, I think Tesla will certainly be the big winner.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:49 am

lpickup wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:Loss of the credit would likely benefit Tesla, since they are almost done with the credit pulling it makes new entires to the market less competitive in price as they are just starting. To Tesla it's actually more of a win to have it pulled at this point unless they extended the production caps which will never happen.

...

Now other automakers can afford to wait that out. Tesla cannot. They have spent a ton of money on the Gigafactory and equipment for Model 3. They cannot afford to sell Model 3's at a loss for a year until economies of scale put them in the black.
...


The tax credit has nothing to do with corporate profits. The manufacturer sells the car at a price that hopefully includes some profit, and if the government wants to give some of that money back to the consumer in the form of a tax credit, it should have no bearing on corporate profits.

A company could conceivably price a car $7500 more than they would otherwise knowing that the consumer would get that back, but that is another subject.

Either way, Tesla's ability to get into the black on Model 3 is in their own hands. They need to solve their manufacturing and logistics issues and get sales numbers up and costs down.

Tax credit going away completely will be a non issue for Tesla. Having it go away only for Tesla due to their sales numbers is a bigger problem. I've always felt the setup was unfair to GM, Nissan and Tesla for being the first movers. They will have theirs eliminated and then newcomers/latecomers will have an advantage. It should have been a total vehicle production across all MFG's to sunset the program, not individual numbers.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:33 pm

palmermd wrote: I've always felt the setup was unfair to GM, Nissan and Tesla for being the first movers. They will have theirs eliminated and then newcomers/latecomers will have an advantage. It should have been a total vehicle production across all MFG's to sunset the program, not individual numbers.


I agree, and if the government rescinds the tax credit, I'll chose to look at it that way.

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