mtndrew1
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:42 pm

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
mtndrew1 wrote:Based on the stout resale value of the Model S it seems you’re not the only one with that opinion.

If I remember reading an investor conference call transcript correctly (I am not an investor) the company anticipates the average model 3 transaction price to be about $43,000 once all options are available.


I am seeing S's NOT holding anywhere near good value.


Could you link to some? I know a number of people who would like a bargain S.

What I’m seeing for the used Model Ss in my market is about 50% value retention at five years of age, which is unusually high in its market segment. If a 2012 Leaf held its value similarly it would be going for $13,250 on the used market. Of course the Leaf isn’t and I just bought a four year old example with 36k miles on it for eight grand.
2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range (100% charge @ 12k miles shows 1.6% degradation)

2013 Nissan Leaf S + QC sold with warranty pack replacement

2015 Kia Soul EV+ Lease returned 10/14/17 45,000 miles w/ 13.8% degradation.

hyperionmark
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:58 pm

I too would love one of these "cheap" Model S's. Please send us links.

edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:30 pm

Might indicate a supplier relations problem, due to the long-delayed-trickle model 3 production schedule.

Model 3 owners accuse Tesla of bait-and-switch on premium interior materials

Owners report getting cloth interiors instead of Alcantara, with no explanation offered.

Reservation-holders are starting to get deliveries of their Model 3s at long last, but there's rising ire among some who say that Tesla is swapping out premium interior materials for lower-quality cloth versions on premium trim packages without notice, explanation or any offer to discount the price.

Threads on both the Tesla Motors Club forum and Tesla Reddit page are filled with complaints from owners who say they've taken deliveries of the Model 3 sedan and paid $5,000 for premium upgrade packages but gotten interiors with cloth headliners, door accents, B-pillars and visors when they expected Alcantara. One owner took to Twitter to post photos of what he described as a "mix and match" interior in his new car...

"Tesla better correct it," user void-ninja said in a TMC thread. "Basic cloth is not acceptable in a $5,000 upgrade package when better materials are being specified."...

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/01/11/mod ... -interior/
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edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:44 pm

mtndrew1 wrote:...What I’m seeing for the used Model Ss in my market is about 50% value retention at five years of age...

And on what planet is your market?

hyperionmark wrote:I too would love one of these "cheap" Model S's. Please send us links.

Completed sales on EBAY show 50% depreciation of a model S takes about three years, with highly optioned models losing value considerably faster than base models, about the same as with similarly priced ICEVs.

Completed (usually, many sales fall through) EBAY sales, here:

https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_sacat= ... 2&_fosrp=1

The green numbers are when reserves are met by bids/offers, and if the price looks high, check for a relisting of a fake sale.

Any S or X you buy today will likely depreciate in value more in the next year (post incentives) than any LEAF has since production began in 2010.

Back on topic, Model 3s should retain value well for a while, just as other Tesla's did, until production reached significant numbers.

mtndrew1 wrote:Hmm if you switch it to show “sold” listings it looks like a bunch of poor schmucks made $15,000. I feel terrible for them.

https://m.ebay.com/itm/2017-Tesla-Model ... Sw88xaTBO8

Oh, and also ignore private listings, like the one "mtndrew1" posted above.

After taxes and expenses, it looks like you might make a few $k reselling a new 3...for the moment.

https://www.ebay.com/sch/Cars-Trucks/60 ... 0&_fosrp=1
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dgpcolorado
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:32 pm

The cheapest CPO Model S listed currently is this 2014 S60:

Image
It comes with the four year/50k miles full warranty (plus the eight year battery and drive train warranty, of course). This car would have been about $70k new.

They also listed a 2012 S85 with 38k miles and the two year warranty for $48,900 but it is already gone. CPO S85s below $50k don't last very long on Tesla's website.


I'll be interested to see what CPO Model 3 prices look like in a couple of years. I managed to sell my 2012 LEAF, with 33k miles and in immaculate condition, in 2016 for $7500. The cost was about $34k IIRC; that was long before Nissan began heavy discounting on new LEAFs. It was a very expensive car on a per mile basis, even with tax credits.
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mtndrew1
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:18 pm

edatoakrun wrote:
mtndrew1 wrote:
Completed (usually, many sales fall through) EBAY sales, here:


Oh, and also ignore private listings, like the one "mtndrew1" posted above.

After taxes and expenses, it looks like you might make a few $k reselling a new 3...for the moment.


So before it was a bunch of chumps trying to unload Model 3s with no success and when I provide a link showing otherwise it’s to be ignored. Got it. Cute.

As production ramps I suspect that the Model 3 profit taking will die off as they won’t be as difficult to get ahold of.

As for general eBay automobile resale values I’m seeing the exact same condition you describe for Teslas on used Leafs, except that their resale value percentages are far lower at the same age and mileage than Teslas, but of course the cars don’t compete with one another. I’ve never bought or sold a car on eBay so I’m not sure how representative the forum is for car sales in general. I have bought and sold dozens of cars through traditional means, however.

I do know that if I see an S on auto trader or the Tesla CPO site at anything approaching a moderate price it’s gone in hours.

Agreed that the extremely highly equipped Teslas (P100DL, etc) depreciate faster than the rest though this is in line with other similarly equipped competitors (AMG packages, etc).

As it stands I don’t see any evidence that a Model S depreciates as quickly over time as its peers from Mercedes Benz, BMW, and Audi.
2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range (100% charge @ 12k miles shows 1.6% degradation)

2013 Nissan Leaf S + QC sold with warranty pack replacement

2015 Kia Soul EV+ Lease returned 10/14/17 45,000 miles w/ 13.8% degradation.

edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:19 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:The cheapest CPO Model S listed currently is this 2014 S60...

Tesla CPO = sucker price.

dgpcolorado wrote:...I managed to sell my 2012 LEAF, with 33k miles and in immaculate condition, in 2016 for $7500...

That was one smart buyer who has now driven your LEAF for almost two years, and only taken a hit of ~$1k for further depreciation.

dgpcolorado wrote:...CPO 2014 Tesla S60 Mar 2016...

What will Tesla offer you for your S today...~$15 k less than you paid?

$20k less?
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mtndrew1
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:33 pm

Oh I get it.

This has nothing to do with discourse and trying to read the tea leaves as to the potential future success or failure of the Model 3, this is all about “I know everything and you’re a bunch of dummies and even when wrong I make better financial decisions than you chumps.”

I bet you’re fun at parties.
2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range (100% charge @ 12k miles shows 1.6% degradation)

2013 Nissan Leaf S + QC sold with warranty pack replacement

2015 Kia Soul EV+ Lease returned 10/14/17 45,000 miles w/ 13.8% degradation.

lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:43 pm

lpickup wrote:
lorenfb wrote:As expected, given the previously mentioned Osborne Effect that the M3 will have on subsequent new and used sales of the MS.


I agree that the M3 is having an effect, but it's not the Osborne Effect. The Osborne Effect would apply if the Model 3 was Model S version N+1. Instead, I think the effect is that a lot of people stretched their finances to get into a Model S (many of those in CPO vehicles) that they would not ordinarily have done. Now that the more affordable Model 3 is an option, that will cut into potential Model S sales. Not because of the promise of a newer version with better features, but rather a more appropriately priced vehicle for the demographic we are talking about. Those that can afford a Model S or X will continue to buy them. If anything, you can make the argument that the previous demand for Model S was artificially floated higher because of LACK of a Model 3, and now that upward pressure is receding.


1. The term Osborne Effect when NOT interpreted explicitly/verbatim, implies that the introduction a newer product results in cannibalization
of sales of an existing product line. The argument could be made that Tesla should have had at the time of the M3 intro a new model
of the MS to introduce.

2. Yes, some may have "stretched their finances. But now with the M3, which hasn't been inadequately differentiated, availability,
those potential MS buyers will be re-directed to become buyers to the M3.

3. Yes, some may have "stretched their finances" to purchase a MS, but there were many that then and now could/can afford a MS but when
rationally considering the delta features between the M3 & MS, will now purchase the M3 instead.
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mtndrew1
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:54 pm

lorenfb wrote:The argument could be made that Tesla should have had at the time of the M3 intro a new model
of the MS to introduce.
.


I think I found the first statement of yours I agree with.

The S and X will need a comprehensive refresh soon to bring them up to par with (or exceed) the baked-in newness of the 3. The touchscreen hardware, door cards, navigation software, etc all need to be refreshed sooner than later.

If they do it this quarter then the freshened cars already likely started production and are being loaded for the slow trip overseas like they did when the S got a refresh in ‘16. As Tesla delivers cars in the US at the end of a given quarter it gives them time to unload inventory and finalize transactions for cars built to the previous spec. It’s one of the few logistical things Tesla does well.
2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range (100% charge @ 12k miles shows 1.6% degradation)

2013 Nissan Leaf S + QC sold with warranty pack replacement

2015 Kia Soul EV+ Lease returned 10/14/17 45,000 miles w/ 13.8% degradation.

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