Joe6pack wrote:Why shoot the messenger. This has been my issue for awhile. I've always thought the reservation narrative to be false and felt that when it came time to strike a check many would back out. The market for $50,000 luxury sedans just isn't that large and they aren't going to get 100% of it anyway.
You're right...on the other hand, the number of reservations was about triple of what was actually expected, so even a 33% take rate is still actually great. Let's put it this way--it took Nissan 7 years to sell 300,000 LEAFs worldwide. If Tesla could build that many, even at 33% take rate, they would do the same in 2 years.
And even the logic of the market for $50K sedans is flawed in a way. If demand for the first production Model 3 were to suddenly dry up, then (despite the fact that Loren and others say it will never be built) the SR model will be brought out. But in the meantime, yes, Tesla is going to sell as few versions of the vehicle as they can, focusing on the ones that make the most money. It would be foolish not to! In fact, if anything, deferrals (among the admittedly subject to reporting-bias sources of data) are for more ADVANCED cars, specifically dual motor and air suspension (with a few also holding out for a performance version). Sure, there are many that are also looking for the SR model, but I think the market for a $50K sedan is not as limited as you think (even if maybe it's the Tesla brand aspiration that's expanding that market).
Anyway, I don't have any inside information. Tesla is stating that the reservation count is "holding steady" (without mentioning exactly at what level that is) and that the deferrals they themselves are seeing are for first: AWD and second: SR. Now I always take press releases with a grain of salt. But by the same token I don't think they'd outright lie with statements like that. So yes, as you say, we need to sit back and watch how this plays out. But even in a pessimistic scenario, there is no disputing the fact that Tesla is going to outsell all other EVs (for quite some time).