User avatar
EVDRIVER
Moderator
Posts: 6370
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:51 am

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:12 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:
GRA wrote:I find the Model S, especially with the original nose, better looking. The only aspect of that car I don't particularly care for is the wide shelves on the rear fenders, making it look heavy in the hips.
Hah! The only thing I don't like about the looks of my S is the "gaping fish mouth" original nose. I find the refresh nose a lot more attractive :)

So far as color goes, the only Model 3 I've seen in person was the gray "midnight silver." It is such a boring, ugly color for a car that I am baffled why so many seem to like it.



Agreed, I have yet to see the brilliant silver but it looks nice in pictures and not great on an S.
Forum Moderator

GRA
Posts: 8665
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:38 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:
GRA wrote:I find the Model S, especially with the original nose, better looking. The only aspect of that car I don't particularly care for is the wide shelves on the rear fenders, making it look heavy in the hips.
Hah! The only thing I don't like about the looks of my S is the "gaping fish mouth" original nose. I find the refresh nose a lot more attractive :)

To be clear, I don't particularly like the original nose, I just think it looks better than the new nose, which reminds me of a blank, unintelligent stare. IMO the new nose looks better on the Model S than the X or 3, but that's faint praise :D
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

lorenfb
Posts: 1776
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:50 pm

Another insightful alternative M3 market analysis and a review of Tesla’s questionable automotive business model:

Summary
Discussions on Model 3 ramp timing ignore market demand.
Demand for $40,000-$60,000 luxury cars is not infinite.
Are existing Model 3 reservations anywhere near 400,000?

The Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) narrative has been focused entirely on how many Model 3s can be built and when will these production numbers be achieved. I believe the true question investors should be asking is not how many Model 3s can be built, but how many can be sold? On this forum I have read “I expect Model 3 sales of 1.1mm/year in 2020.” This, along with additional sales estimates in various articles of 500,000 next year, 700,000 next year etc. made me question where all this demand will come from?


I have read both long and short articles that refer to the Tesla Model 3 as their first “mass market” vehicle. Sure, Tesla sold the Model 3 as their first “mass market” vehicle when they revealed it and subsequently brought in 400,000 plus reservations. However, they were selling a $35,000 vehicle with a $7,500 tax credit. As expected, the hype and the reality have turned out to be completely different scenarios. We now know the $35,000 Model 3 does not currently exist, and it is questionable if it ever will due to the losses of any sale at such a price. The reality is the average sales price of the Model 3 will be $45,000-$55,000 with very few buyers reaping a $7,500 tax credit. This fact means the Tesla Model 3 is competing in the in the Small Luxury Market in the best-case scenario, and in the worst-case scenario the Mid-Size Luxury Market. As you will see, both markets are far from the “mass markets.”


As the underwriters dig into the true financial picture the narrative falls apart if the Model 3 is demand constrained. Underwriters would certainly would have access to the true remaining reservations and the conversion rate. If the significant increase in average sales price of the Model 3 has severely eroded the remaining reservations, there's no investment bank in the world that would underwrite a $2-$3 billion stock offering if the Model 3 demand is nowhere near as advertised.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/416086 ... of=44&dr=1
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 66K miles, 50 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F, min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

User avatar
EVDRIVER
Moderator
Posts: 6370
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:51 am

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:32 pm

Such a reputable and objective source. Please stop doing this, the complaints are piling up.
Forum Moderator

Joe6pack
Posts: 138
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2012 4:57 pm
Delivery Date: 07 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 025854

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 05, 2018 6:47 am

Why shoot the messenger. This has been my issue for awhile. I've always thought the reservation narrative to be false and felt that when it came time to strike a check many would back out. The market for $50,000 luxury sedans just isn't that large and they aren't going to get 100% of it anyway.

There is legitimate demand for the Model 3 and Tesla is supply constrained at the moment, so the true picture is difficult to see.
2012 Leaf SL leased October 4th, 2012
Braselton, GA

User avatar
lpickup
Posts: 1110
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2011 2:14 pm
Delivery Date: 23 Dec 2016
Leaf Number: 312310
Location: Raleigh, NC
Contact: Website

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:16 am

Joe6pack wrote:Why shoot the messenger. This has been my issue for awhile. I've always thought the reservation narrative to be false and felt that when it came time to strike a check many would back out. The market for $50,000 luxury sedans just isn't that large and they aren't going to get 100% of it anyway.


You're right...on the other hand, the number of reservations was about triple of what was actually expected, so even a 33% take rate is still actually great. Let's put it this way--it took Nissan 7 years to sell 300,000 LEAFs worldwide. If Tesla could build that many, even at 33% take rate, they would do the same in 2 years.

And even the logic of the market for $50K sedans is flawed in a way. If demand for the first production Model 3 were to suddenly dry up, then (despite the fact that Loren and others say it will never be built) the SR model will be brought out. But in the meantime, yes, Tesla is going to sell as few versions of the vehicle as they can, focusing on the ones that make the most money. It would be foolish not to! In fact, if anything, deferrals (among the admittedly subject to reporting-bias sources of data) are for more ADVANCED cars, specifically dual motor and air suspension (with a few also holding out for a performance version). Sure, there are many that are also looking for the SR model, but I think the market for a $50K sedan is not as limited as you think (even if maybe it's the Tesla brand aspiration that's expanding that market).

Anyway, I don't have any inside information. Tesla is stating that the reservation count is "holding steady" (without mentioning exactly at what level that is) and that the deferrals they themselves are seeing are for first: AWD and second: SR. Now I always take press releases with a grain of salt. But by the same token I don't think they'd outright lie with statements like that. So yes, as you say, we need to sit back and watch how this plays out. But even in a pessimistic scenario, there is no disputing the fact that Tesla is going to outsell all other EVs (for quite some time).
...Lance

Deep Blue Metallic 2018 Tesla Model 3 (31849) (delivered: 7/13/18)
Coulis Red 2016 SV (312310) (bought: 12/23/16 sold: 7/5/18)
Glacier Pearl 2012 SL (016138) (delivered: 12/9/11; traded in 12/23/16)
NOGA$4ME Blog

User avatar
dgpcolorado
Posts: 3044
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:56 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Dec 2011
Location: The Western Slope, Colorado

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:49 am

Saw a report that another 4793 VINs were registered, with the highest now being 25374.
Blue 2012 SV Dec 2011 to Feb 2016
CPO 2014 Tesla S60 Mar 2016
One car, no ICE, at last!
Tesla Referral Code

User avatar
dgpcolorado
Posts: 3044
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:56 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Dec 2011
Location: The Western Slope, Colorado

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:34 am

dgpcolorado wrote:Saw a report that another 4793 VINs were registered, with the highest now being 25374.

Add another 2915 VINs, with the highest now being 28289.
Blue 2012 SV Dec 2011 to Feb 2016
CPO 2014 Tesla S60 Mar 2016
One car, no ICE, at last!
Tesla Referral Code

SageBrush
Posts: 2488
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:54 am

dgpcolorado wrote:
dgpcolorado wrote:Saw a report that another 4793 VINs were registered, with the highest now being 25374.

Add another 2915 VINs, with the highest now being 28289.
The VIN registration cadence is too high to be explained solely by the improved manufacturing rate of ~ 300 cars a day as of last week.

I get the impression that Tesla has batches of VINs for each trim, so we may be seeing the harbinger of a new trim (or trims.) It could be something as trivial as another option like white upholstery, or as exciting as AWD.

One way or another though, the ramp is happening.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

User avatar
EVDRIVER
Moderator
Posts: 6370
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:51 am

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:26 pm

SageBrush wrote:
dgpcolorado wrote:
dgpcolorado wrote:Saw a report that another 4793 VINs were registered, with the highest now being 25374.

Add another 2915 VINs, with the highest now being 28289.
The VIN registration cadence is too high to be explained solely by the improved manufacturing rate of ~ 300 cars a day as of last week.

I get the impression that Tesla has batches of VINs for each trim, so we may be seeing the harbinger of a new trim (or trims.) It could be something as trivial as another option like white upholstery, or as exciting as AWD.

One way or another though, the ramp is happening.


How about both? That would be pretty good!
Forum Moderator

Return to “Other Electric Cars & Plug-In Hybrids”