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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:56 am

leaf16 wrote:Tesla is now stuck in the difficult position with the Model 3 production, where if they can / and do increase the production rate much above the reported current 2,500 per week rate --- they will hit the 200,000 Cap Limit for the $7,500 Fed Tax refund this Quarter (ends June 30th).


Not really new news. People predicted they would hit 200K in 4Q17, then 1Q18, and now 2Q18. By some estimates they got 6 more months of full credit than was originally anticipated.

That would then only give them only the 3rd Quarter of this year at the $7,500 refund and deliveries in the last Quarter of this year would qualify for only a $3,750 refund.

leaf16 wrote:Gets only worse in 2019, the 1st Quarter refund would be only $1,875 (not much on a very expensive car) and zero after that.

Not quite. $3750 would be through 1Q19 and then $1875 for 2Q19 and 3Q19.

leaf16 wrote:If they do hold production down this Quarter, it will only delay hitting the Cap until the 3rd Quarter and delaying these numbers by 90 days (still not a good scenario).

It's a common misbelief that "holding production down" is the only way to avoid hitting the limit. I very much doubt they would actually hold down production (unless it served some other means such as gearing up for higher production rates or introducing new options like AWD and SR battery). Other options include diverting shipments to Canada or other non-US markets, and keeping production up, but stockpiling Model 3's for quick sale in 3Q18, maximizing the number of people able to take the credit. If they do go this route, I see a combination of all of the above.

leaf16 wrote:2019 will also bring in new competion with 200 + mile range capabilities and they will all have the full $7,500 refund available --- makes a real price point advantage when Tesla starts selling $35,000 cars.

True enough, but I think LATE 2019 and more likely early 2020 is when we will really see these. For sure it will be a headwind against Tesla, although Tesla will already have gotten through the production ramp that other manufacturers will have to climb themselves.
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Nubo
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:24 am

The end of the tax credits isn't some new dark cloud that has suddenly appeared over the horizon.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:07 pm

Welcome to the forum. I must admit it's curious to see another negative Tesla post from a first time poster.

scottf200
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:04 pm

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Rebel44
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:32 am

leaf16 wrote:Tesla is now stuck in the difficult position with the Model 3 production, where if they can / and do increase the production rate much above the reported current 2,500 per week rate --- they will hit the 200,000 Cap Limit for the $7,500 Fed Tax refund this Quarter (ends June 30th).

That would then only give them only the 3rd Quarter of this year at the $7,500 refund and deliveries in the last Quarter of this year would qualify for only a $3,750 refund.

Gets only worse in 2019, the 1st Quarter refund would be only $1,875 (not much on a very expensive car) and zero after that.

If they do hold production down this Quarter, it will only delay hitting the Cap until the 3rd Quarter and delaying these numbers by 90 days (still not a good scenario).

2019 will also bring in new competion with 200 + mile range capabilities and they will all have the full $7,500 refund available --- makes a real price point advantage when Tesla starts selling $35,000 cars.

Tesla also has this little problem of having accumulated a reported $10B debt outstanding – give or take a few $B.
$3B is non-recourse debt (SolarCity) to Tesla, so hopefully Musk will make that good from his own pocket.

It is interesting to make a wild calculation just how many cars it would take to pay off some of this debt, say $5B with an average Tesla profit of $5,000 per car (very unlikely level). That is 1,000,000 (1 Million cars) with ALL profits being used to just retire $5B debt.

This is a very Big Debt Hole to dig out of.


1. you have incorrect info about tax credit phase-out

reality is this:
Qx - reach 200K EV sales
Qx+1 full credit
Qx+2 and 3 50% credit
Qx+4 and 5 25% credit

2. Tesla can shift some sales towards Canada, supply all of its showrooms (including some outside of USA) with Model 3s and direct a large part of June production towards East Coast ((transport + preparation time would ensure sales to happen in early July) - they might still need to keep some Model 3s from delivery, but if they announce it ahead of time, IMO investors will look at production numbers and will ignore if sales were moved from Q2 to Q3. There is no reason to artificially limit the production.

cwerdna
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:04 am

Leaf16 also repeatedly incorrectly calls the Federal tax credit a "tax refund". Nope.

He can look at Phaseout at the bottom of https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml needs for an illustrated example.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:46 am

scottf200 wrote:Cool estimating tool: https://teslanomics.co/tesla-model-3-ramp-estimator/#

Image


Out of what orifice did that graphic originate, especially the implication of that large of a M3 (>$50K) market segment with a plateau
of 7500/week into perpetuity? Appears to be just a textbook copy of a mathematical step function applied to an integration
function, e.g. first week of Production Management 101.

Laughable!
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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:54 am

Perhaps you failed to notice that the data is user defined just like your fixed assumptions. The only laughable thing is your propaganda agenda.

scottf200
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:05 am

EVDRIVER wrote:Perhaps you failed to notice that the data is user defined just like your fixed assumptions. The only laughable thing is your propaganda agenda.

Haha, there is a reason that guy is on my ignore list :) . Clearly the user can adjust the input as my arrows point out to adjsut the Log Growth S-Curve. I take Ben the Data Scientist skills over his any day ...

Talks about it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObuDLy6d5l0

Teslanomics by Ben Sullins [field of Data Science] - Published on Apr 10, 2018

This new tool I built lets you estimate the Tesla Model 3 Production ramp. View it here https://teslanomics.co/tesla-model-3-ramp-estimator/
View the full broadcast- https : //youtu.be/UZnrYYajGGw
This tool is for entertainment purposes only, please consult a financial advisor before making any stock purchasing decisions.

Data Sources
- http://ir.tesla.com/
- https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

Log Growth S-Curve
- http://www.clear-lines.com/blog/post/S- ... curve.aspx
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function
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lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:44 am

scottf200 wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:Perhaps you failed to notice that the data is user defined just like your fixed assumptions. The only laughable thing is your propaganda agenda.

Haha, there is a reason that guy is on my ignore list :) . Clearly the user can adjust the input as my arrows point out to adjsut the Log Growth S-Curve. I take Ben the Data Scientist skills over his any day ...


Now to hear him speak, the "model" becomes even more laughable, i.e. a 10K/wk production (~ 500K/yr) with a forecast three years out.
Maybe when he takes basic micro-econ and marketing classes in junior college, he'll develop something useful other than serving up
hyperbole for those that typically "drink the Tesla kool-aid", i.e. like the two above!
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 70K miles, 49 Ahrs, 5.1 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

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