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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:56 am

lorenfb wrote:
scottf200 wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:Perhaps you failed to notice that the data is user defined just like your fixed assumptions. The only laughable thing is your propaganda agenda.

Haha, there is a reason that guy is on my ignore list :) . Clearly the user can adjust the input as my arrows point out to adjsut the Log Growth S-Curve. I take Ben the Data Scientist skills over his any day ...


Now to hear him speak, the "model" becomes even more laughable, i.e. a 10K/wk production (~ 500K/yr) with a forecast three years out.
Maybe when he takes basic micro-econ and marketing classes in junior college, he'll develop something useful other than serving up
hyperbole for those that typically "drink the Tesla kool-aid", i.e. like the two above!


Noting like quoting people peoples opinions on the internet to validate points. Nice way to act like a Russian bot on Facebook.

edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:26 am

Slightly (?) reassuring:

Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Model 3 production problems: "You'll definitely get your car"

...Asked if there's been many cancelled orders by customers frustrated by the long wait, Musk said, "It's mostly like people cancel because, you know, they just needed a car and we didn't have a car for them."

"But do you feel, Elon Musk, personally a lot of pressure and a big burden on your shoulders because so many people believe in this product and believe in this company because of you?" King asked.

"Okay. Well, I hope their faith is not misplaced," he said.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-elon ... 018-04-12/
no condition is permanent

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:32 am

edatoakrun wrote:Slightly (?) reassuring:

Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Model 3 production problems: "You'll definitely get your car"

...Asked if there's been many cancelled orders by customers frustrated by the long wait, Musk said, "It's mostly like people cancel because, you know, they just needed a car and we didn't have a car for them."

"But do you feel, Elon Musk, personally a lot of pressure and a big burden on your shoulders because so many people believe in this product and believe in this company because of you?" King asked.

"Okay. Well, I hope their faith is not misplaced," he said.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-elon ... 018-04-12/



It's like any other product, if it's not available or does not meet your needs or cost get something else. All this hype is just that, hype.

scottf200
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:50 pm

100K EV miles and 80% EV usage
Volt = 53+ mile BEV up to 100 MPH, then 40 MPG hybrid with a 9 gal gas tank
'17 Tesla Model X 100D 'used'| RIP '16 P90DL Sig | 2011 Volt kid2 | 2016 for wife | 2012 kid1

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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:40 am

lorenfb wrote:Out of what orifice did that graphic originate, especially the implication of that large of a M3 (>$50K) market segment with a plateau
of 7500/week into perpetuity? Appears to be just a textbook copy of a mathematical step function applied to an integration
function, e.g. first week of Production Management 101.

Laughable!


It's a tool, like a graphing spreadsheet, Loren. You are welcome to plug in whatever numbers you need to to get the plot to take whatever shape will make you feel good.
...Lance

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:43 am

lpickup wrote:
lorenfb wrote:Out of what orifice did that graphic originate, especially the implication of that large of a M3 (>$50K) market segment with a plateau
of 7500/week into perpetuity? Appears to be just a textbook copy of a mathematical step function applied to an integration
function, e.g. first week of Production Management 101.

Laughable!


It's a tool, like a graphing spreadsheet, Loren. You are welcome to plug in whatever numbers you need to to get the plot to take whatever shape will make you feel good.



I don't think it accepts negative numbers.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:08 pm

RegGuheert on March 30, 2018 wrote:
Zythryn wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:...It seems their approach is known to have serious drawbacks, yet they are pursuing it anyway.
...
The approach of trying to land rocket stages also has serious drawbacks, yet SpaceX pursued that route anyways.
Perhaps the advantages are worth the challenge?
What benefits would those be?

Costs? According to the article, they spent double per car what other manufacturers spent for this line:
TorqueNews wrote:"Tesla has spent c.2x what a traditional OEM spends per unit on capacity."
But doesn't that expenditure saves them on labor costs? These analysts estimate that Tesla will reduce labor costs by $50/car by spending $550/car on automation:
TorqueNews wrote:"So the net labour saving may be only $50 per unit. Yet putting the automation into the plant seems to involve an apparent capital cost that's $4,000 higher per unit of capacity than for a normal plant. If the product is built for 7 years, that's over US$550 of additional depreciation per unit built."
Perhaps this expensive automation buys higher quality? Not according to the Business Insider article linked from the article I linked:
Business Insider wrote:Bernstein adds that the world's best carmakers, the Japanese, try to limit automation because it "is expensive and is statistically inversely correlated to quality."
So that leaves throughput. I suppose that is the major topic of discussion, isn't it? The thesis of the Business insider article seems to be that it is the robots themselves that are to blame:
Business Insider wrote:In a rare win for humans over robots in the battle for labor efficiency, Wall Street analysts have laid down a compelling argument that over-automation is to blame for problems at the billionaire Elon Musk's electric-car company.
They put it more bluntly farther down in the article:
Business Insider wrote:Warburton, who spent his career before Wall Street at the International Motor Vehicle Program — a partly academic, partly commercial organization based at MIT — wrote that "automation in final assembly doesn't work."
So, is that the final word on the subject? Of course not. Analysts are often wrong, especially when it comes to new technology. But we all know that automation of vehicle manufacturing is NOT new. And the articles are pointing out that what Elon Musk is trying to do with the Model 3 has been tried before and the result was not successful.
To his credit, it seems that Elon Musk finally got the message, albeit the hard way (bolding below is mine):
InsideEVs wrote:Tesla CEO Elon Musk wanted production to be so highly automated that it was basically hands-off to humans, minus maybe some final inspections and quality control.

To achieve this level of automation, new machines were envisioned, design, developed and implemented.

However, after awhile it became clear that certain parts of automotive production couldn’t be accomplished successfully by even the most advanced of robots.

Machines were ripped out and replaced by humans. That’s how Tesla was able to finally up Model 3 production after months of constant struggles.

Now, Musk is willing to admit that it was all his fault.
ETA: Here is a more detailed article on this subject from Business Insider.

ETA2: I think this is the original CBS News article on the subject.

RegGuheert
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Zythryn
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Apr 14, 2018 4:29 am

Machines were “ripped out”?
Seems a little dramatic.
Per the interview, Tesla saw something wasn’t working well, so they changed it.
They are young, and ambitious. They tried something, it didn’t work, so they made modifications. They did so very quickly as well.

So now, Tesla is running with less automation and more people.
We will see if they can hit their 5000/week goal in a few months, or if it takes longer.

As an aside, a friend of mine just got their invite to configure yesterday :D Ordered online, non owner.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
Current owner of Model 3
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ranss12
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Apr 15, 2018 6:37 am

"Machines were “ripped out”"

These robots will be used on line 2 or for Model Y line. They won't be thrown away.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:35 am

RegGuheert
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Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

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