Zythryn
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Jun 04, 2018 3:23 pm

SageBrush wrote:I ordered my Model 3 two weeks ago;
VIN supplied yesterday;
Car pickup 8 days from today.


Congratulations!!
My wife is due to pick hers up next Monday! Happy times all around :)
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
Current owner of Model 3
http://www.netzeromn.com

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RegGuheert
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:18 pm

lpickup on May 2, 2018 wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:Assuming the shutdown was only one week (was it?),

Not sure...I think it was a little bit less...April 18-22 maybe?)
RegGuheert wrote:it seems that May sales of the Model 3 CANNOT come in under 6,000 units. If they do, then I think there is some serious disconnect between Elon's production numbers and the reality.

I think I would agree with that. Let's do our own estimating.
We have the 2250 vehicles from the 2nd week of April. Let's aim low for 3rd week of April, say 500 vehicles. 4th week of April and first week of May (this week) should each be 2000+. Now there is another shutdown scheduled for May, but unless it's this week, even I don't believe it will significantly impact May numbers. So right there we are at at least 6750. If they don't meet that number, then I agree there is something going on. And that's a conservative estimate. I would hope that they would be getting closer to 3K/week right now, and that moves the number up to 8750.

And that something could be two things:

1) Deliveries to the Canadians that were invited at the end of March should probably occur sometime in May. That will lower the numbers. It should not impact the 6750 deliveries per se, but since InsideEVs tracks US sales only, their reported number would be lower (I don't know if there is a similar estimate of monthly global Tesla sales anywhere).

2) If Tesla decides that they could defer delivering #200K until July, they may attempt to stockpile Model 3's for quick sale in 3Q. I would prefer that they ship to Canada instead of taking such a measure.
O.K. InsideEVs puts the May deliveries at 6250, which barely exceeds my 6000 number, but it is 500 shy of lpickup's number of 6750, so "there is something going on". So is that something Canadian deliveries? (Sorry if this has already been answered, as I have not been following...)
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:47 pm

SageBrush wrote:I ordered my Model 3 two weeks ago;
VIN supplied yesterday;
Car pickup 8 days from today.


RWD?

SageBrush
Posts: 2930
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Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:10 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:
SageBrush wrote:I ordered my Model 3 two weeks ago;
VIN supplied yesterday;
Car pickup 8 days from today.


RWD?

Yes ;-)

I decided to skip the AWD and be smart (and some $5k richer) by not being lazy and swapping in winter tyres each season.
Tesla cars have a reputation of very good traction in RWD by itself, so I figure that with good winter tyres will be superior to a regular car with AWD. I don't drive in heavy snow or up mountains; I just want a car that stays its path on roads that can be slippery from snow or ice.
Last edited by SageBrush on Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:14 pm

lpickup wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:
...I wouldn't suggest you publicize any stockpile-model-3s-to-milk-the-federal-subsidy-strategy by TSLA....

...It's not my job to publicize or not. I am painting a picture of how it could be done.

...it's not "gaming" the system by deferring the milestone vehicle into early in a quarter...

Whether you admit it is "gaming" or perhaps something worse, I suggest you consider the actions you outline would be extremely stupid, and do TSLA more harm than the additional tax credits would bring in benefits.

You are suggesting that, a few days after TSLA's cut-out for reporting USA sales releases terrible numbers for June, Musk face the shareholders and report that TSLA really did build lot of cars that month, but to artificially extend the tax credit, it stopped selling vehicles when it it hit (exactly?) 199,999 USA sales.

And, after stuffing as many model 3's as it could in Canada, TSLA still kept ~9,000 model 3s sitting in storage, even as cancellations of model 3 orders have continued to accelerate:

Tesla Faces Accelerating Rate of Model 3 Refunds

...The Model 3 faced a series of production delays, and not all depositors have stuck out the wait. Since reservations began, 23 percent of deposits have been refunded. Only Tesla knows how many additional customers have cancelled reservations and are still awaiting refunds...

https://blog.secondmeasure.com/2018/06/ ... 3-refunds/

Could any other action by Musk more dramatically illustrate just how vital the FTC subsidies are to TSLA's continued existence, and what a liar he has been over the years when he has repeatedly said that TSLA doesn't depend on them?

And that's probably not even the largest flaw in your proposal.

Since intentionally delaying sales this quarter (to the degree you suggest) also results a contrived deferment of about half a billion dollars of revenue until the long-promised-to-be-profitable next quarter, shareholders (not to mention the SEC) just might find some reason to object to this bizzare behavior...
no condition is permanent

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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Jun 04, 2018 6:59 pm

edatoakrun wrote:You are suggesting that, a few days after TSLA's cut-out for reporting USA sales releases terrible numbers for June, Musk face the shareholders and report that TSLA really did build lot of cars that month, but to artificially extend the tax credit, it stopped selling vehicles when it it hit (exactly?) 199,999 USA sales.

And, after stuffing as many model 3's as it could in Canada, TSLA still kept ~9,000 model 3s sitting in storage


Yes, that's exactly what I am suggesting, and he is going to have in his hand a delivery report that states 12,000 (yes, I think even higher than the 9000 you estimate) Teslas are "in transit". Most serious investors will be able to read between the lines and know exactly what Tesla did and realize that it merely shifts revenues by a few weeks from before one arbitrary date on the calendar to after it, and that the actual material impact on the company's financial health is practically nil.

Now I am sure we will be able to count those like you who I am sure will undoubtedly come in and quote some Seeking Alpha report that states that Tesla is mere days away from bankruptcy because they only managed 3500 Model 3 sales in June as not being part of the above group, but that's fine. We know that's what's going to happen and we also know what the real story is, even if those folks have to bury their head even further in the sand to avoid the real story.

BTW, it's not like they are locking all those vehicles in a vault somewhere...they are more likely moving those cars close by to the delivery hubs/centers where they will be able to be sold as quickly as possible throughout the month of July. In some cases for remote east coast delivery centers, this doesn't even represent more than a week or two extra "storage", hardly a major concern.

edatoakrun wrote:Could any other action by Musk more dramatically illustrate just how vital the FTC subsidies are to TSLA's continued existence, and what a liar he has been over the years when he has repeatedly said that TSLA doesn't depend on them?


It's not that Tesla depends on the tax credit. The Model 3 will do just fine with or without the credit, which by the way doesn't even apply to a huge number of reservation holders world wide. It's about the competitive position vis a vis other automakers. Nobody, and probably not even Musk, would deny that Tesla is in a better position to compete with the full credit in place.

edatoakrun wrote:Since intentionally delaying sales this quarter (to the degree you suggest) also results a contrived deferment of about half a billion dollars of revenue until the long-promised-to-be-profitable next quarter, shareholders (not to mention the SEC) just might find some reason to object to this bizzare behavior...


See my above comment. Smart investors will not put significant weight in an arbitrary calendar date when shown evidence that the sales were merely shifted and will be realized within a month.
...Lance

Deep Blue Metallic 2018 Tesla Model 3 (31849) (delivered: 7/13/18)
Coulis Red 2016 SV (312310) (bought: 12/23/16 sold: 7/5/18)
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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Jun 04, 2018 7:06 pm

RegGuheert wrote:O.K. InsideEVs puts the May deliveries at 6250, which barely exceeds my 6000 number, but it is 500 shy of lpickup's number of 6750, so "there is something going on". So is that something Canadian deliveries? (Sorry if this has already been answered, as I have not been following...)

My revised estimate for June is that there will be about 10,000 vehicles sold (or in transit) to Canada plus 12,000 vehicles in transit in the US during June. June US sales will look dismal to folks like Ed (likely less than 3500), but adding in Canadian sales it will be well above the stated May figures. Plus the significant number of in transit US vehicles will be quickly unloaded come July 1, setting up for an unprecedented, but not sustainable, July sales figure of probably close to 30,000 if all goes well (which let's be honest, will probably not quite happen--so let's say 25K).
...Lance

Deep Blue Metallic 2018 Tesla Model 3 (31849) (delivered: 7/13/18)
Coulis Red 2016 SV (312310) (bought: 12/23/16 sold: 7/5/18)
Glacier Pearl 2012 SL (016138) (delivered: 12/9/11; traded in 12/23/16)
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leafkabob
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Jun 04, 2018 7:49 pm

Stoaty wrote:
leafkabob wrote:The other thing is that there is no other ev out there, at the $50K price of the model 3, that compares to it. There is absolutely no range anxiety with the 3. This car is a game changer. It is only a matter of time.

Not true. I picked up a 2013 Tesla model S 85 kwh for $43K. It more than compares to the model 3. ;)


Congratulations Stoaty! I thought about getting a used S but aside from the fact that it wouldn't fit in my garage, I really like getting 310 miles on a full charge. ;)
Kelly

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2011Silver SL with new lizard battery purchased used on 9/9/2015
2018 Tesla Model 3 received 4/27/2018

SageBrush
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:59 am

Zythryn wrote:
SageBrush wrote:I ordered my Model 3 two weeks ago;
VIN supplied yesterday;
Car pickup 8 days from today.


Congratulations!!
My wife is due to pick hers up next Monday! Happy times all around :)

Thanks :-)
I feel almost overwhelmed by excitement. Lucky I have have work to pass the time or I would be a basket case.
I presumed delivery in July given the Canadian deliveries, so now my self imposed patience is in tatters.

Nice to hear your wife's car is on its way; I can just imagine the glares during her wait :mrgreen:
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

Zythryn
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Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 4:49 am

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jun 05, 2018 4:11 am

SageBrush wrote:
Zythryn wrote:
SageBrush wrote:I ordered my Model 3 two weeks ago;
VIN supplied yesterday;
Car pickup 8 days from today.


Congratulations!!
My wife is due to pick hers up next Monday! Happy times all around :)

Thanks :-)
I feel almost overwhelmed by excitement. Lucky I have have work to pass the time or I would be a basket case.
I presumed delivery in July given the Canadian deliveries, so now my self imposed patience is in tatters.

Nice to hear your wife's car is on its way; I can just imagine the glares during her wait :mrgreen:


I have always found the wait after the VIN assignment is the toughest part :shock:
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
Current owner of Model 3
http://www.netzeromn.com

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