edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:56 pm

Bloomberg has started it's own tracker on model 3 output, largely incorporating the data from the M3 club.

BB now shows production has finally reached the 1k per week production level TSLA was claiming (using weasel words) at the end of December.

Both Bloomberg and the M3 thread show TSLA well below the curve to reach the 2.5k per week/5k per week production levels at the end of Q1 and Q2, claimed last month.

Tesla Model 3 Tracker

We built our own model to estimate weekly output of the car that could make or break Elon Musk's master plan.


...Sluggish output since the Model 3 launch in July 2017 has frustrated fans and confounded Wall Street. That’s why Bloomberg built its own tool to estimate the number of Model 3s rolling out of the factory in Fremont, California. This projection relies on Vehicle Identification Numbers (VINs), unique strings of digits displayed on every new car sold in the U.S.

Our best estimate is that Tesla has manufactured 7,341 Model 3s so far, and is now building approximately 1,025 a week. Those figures, and the charts below, represent Bloomberg’s latest estimates and will automatically update to reflect changes in the data...

The Model 3—with a sticker price as low as $35,000, but currently only available in more expensive configurations—is Tesla’s first step into the mainstream. That plan only works if the company can figure out how to make exponentially more cars. And, as often happens with Musk’s aggressive goals, Tesla has repeatedly fallen short of its own manufacturing targets...

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

https://model3ownersclub.com/threads/da ... heet.5678/
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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:17 pm

edatoakrun wrote:Both Bloomberg and the M3 thread show TSLA well below the curve to reach the 2.5k per week/5k per week production levels at the end of Q1 and Q2, claimed last month.


The reason is (and somebody had to remind even me about this) is that the Bloomberg estimator (and the other sources of this data that they actually stole) are estimating DELIVERIES, not PRODUCTION, the difference being a 3-4 week lag for shipment, prep and pickup by customers. Not only that, but the VIN-sighting estimation technique has even more lag built in because those delivered vehicles need to be "caught" in the wild.

So the factory may in fact be producing 2500 vehicles per week at the end of March, but VIN sightings of those 2500 vehicles made that week will not hit social media until probably the end of April. So the whole "estimator" curve basically gets shifted to the right from what the factory is actually producing.

And the reason this is important (other than the fact that it gives you another false data point to use against Tesla) is when it comes to when Tesla will cross the 200K point. If you make the mistake of assuming the PRODUCTION rate equals DELIVERY rate and 2500 cars are being DELIVERED the week ending March 31, you may think Tesla is closer to 200K US sales than they really are. You have to build in that lag, and once you do, it actually looks like there is a remote possibility that the 200K barrier may be able to be deferred until 3Q. At this point it still seems more likely that they will cross it in 2Q, but there is talk of possible deliveries to Canada and other evasive actions that Tesla could take to limit US sales in order to push that milestone into 3Q. This would completely eliminate any headwind vis a vis competing with the Bolt and be reassuring to everyone waiting for the base model that they will still receive half, if not full tax credit.
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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:13 pm

Tesla will likely try to logically extend numbers to maximize the credits. Of course people will likely not complain if they get the credit based on that. I’m at a SC at the design studio at Spacex and there is an AWD 3 car here and a bunch more 3s scattered around. They seem to be all over California and I’m seeing more in the wild every day.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:13 pm

Tesla will likely try to logically extend numbers to maximize the credits. Of course people will likely not complain if they get the credit based on that. I’m at a SC at the design studio at Spacex and there is an AWD 3 car here and a bunch more 3s scattered around. They seem to be all over California and I’m seeing more in the wild every day.

edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:28 pm

lpickup wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:Both Bloomberg and the M3 thread show TSLA well below the curve to reach the 2.5k per week/5k per week production levels at the end of Q1 and Q2, claimed last month.

The reason is (and somebody had to remind even me about this) is that the Bloomberg estimator (and the other sources of this data that they actually stole) are estimating DELIVERIES, not PRODUCTION...

No, both quite clearly state they are trying to track PRODUCTION.

Model 3 PRODUCTION 3 to 4 weeks ago was estimated by BB to have been only 622 cars per week.

Feel free to quibble with their methodology, if you wish.

lpickup wrote:...it actually looks like there is a remote possibility that the 200K barrier may be able to be deferred until 3Q. At this point it still seems more likely that they will cross it in 2Q, but there is talk of possible deliveries to Canada and other evasive actions that Tesla could take to limit US sales in order to push that milestone into 3Q...

That would require a collapse in US Sales, of models X and S as well as 3.

Not to say that if that does happen, Musk will not say, "we were trying to do that..."
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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:19 pm

edatoakrun wrote:No, both quite clearly state they are trying to track PRODUCTION.

Model 3 PRODUCTION 3 to 4 weeks ago was estimated by BB to have been only 622 cars per week.

Feel free to quibble with their methodology, if you wish.


I sure will, because if they are going to track PRODUCTION with that technique, they are measuring production rates at least 4 weeks prior. Which is fine, except the person interpreting the data needs to know that. I.e. you.

edatoakrun wrote:
lpickup wrote:...it actually looks like there is a remote possibility that the 200K barrier may be able to be deferred until 3Q. At this point it still seems more likely that they will cross it in 2Q, but there is talk of possible deliveries to Canada and other evasive actions that Tesla could take to limit US sales in order to push that milestone into 3Q...


That would require a collapse in US Sales, of models X and S as well as 3.


It would require a reduction of US sales, which could be brought about by diversion of product to other countries. If they wanted to do this it would make almost no difference to Tesla's bottom line.

edatoakrun wrote:Not to say that if that does happen, Musk will not say, "we were trying to do that..."


What it will mean is that edatoakrun will find some news article somewhere that cherry picks US sales numbers and how they are lower than expected, despite the fact that total sales show a consistent ramp. I'll be looking forward to it Ed.
...Lance

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:33 am

The motive behind all this order tracking is very transparent.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:12 pm

For his sake, I just hope he covered his short when it went below 300 for a brief period last week.

GRA
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:18 pm

Via ABG:
Tesla Model 3 delays, tax credit concerns spur sales of Chevy Bolts
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/02/16/tesla-model-3-delays-tax-credit-concerns-spur-sales-of-chevy-bo/

SAN FRANCISCO — Some potential buyers of Tesla's long-delayed Model 3 sedan are concerned that they will miss out on big federal tax breaks and are looking for alternatives, including General Motors' Chevrolet Bolt, according to postings by would-be Tesla buyers on websites and interviews with GM dealers.

Last week Tesla told some holders of Model 3 reservations that they would not get their cars until 2019, eliciting howls of complaint on Tesla online fan forums. Tesla declined to comment.

GM dealers in California, the top U.S. market for electric vehicles, say brisk demand for Bolts is driven in part by frustrated Tesla buyers who are afraid they will lose a $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit if they wait. The tax credit drops in value and eventually disappears once Tesla sells 200,000 electric vehicles in the United States, which Edmunds analyst Jeremy Acevedo expects Tesla to hit by the fall. . . .

Chevrolet dealer Yev Kaplinskiy said his dealership located between San Francisco and Silicon Valley sold 15 Bolts last weekend, after Tesla's latest delay.

"We're getting the Tesla people who wanted their Model 3," Kaplinskiy said. "We ask them, 'What other cars are you interested in?' They're mostly Tesla. But they want the car now. They don't want to wait." Some of the weekend buyers had turned to Chevy because of the most recent Tesla delay, he said. . . .
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GRA
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:45 pm

Edmunds has a Model 3 in their long term test fleet. For those who, like me, want to be able to carry a bike in the car, turns out even a large frame will fit quite well, although you have to remove the front wheel: https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-3/2017/long-term-road-test/2017-tesla-model-3-will-an-xl-size-mountain-bike-fit.html
Last edited by GRA on Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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