edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:30 pm

Model 3 production faltering?

Tesla Model 3 Tracker

We built our own model to estimate weekly output of the car that could make or break Elon Musk's master plan.

8,954
Total cars

599
Per week

By Tom Randall and Dean Halford
Updated at: March 05, 2018...

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

More-or-less the same reported by:

https://model3ownersclub.com/threads/da ... heet.5678/

Looks like another official announcement of further delays in model 3 production by TSLA may be coming soon.

I suspect the real hell may be for the suppliers who were told last Summer to plan on a ~5,000 per weak production rate by last December, and now may be being asked to deliver parts at only about one tenth that rate today...
no condition is permanent

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:44 pm

We all know what the real hell is.

palmermd
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:20 pm

edatoakrun wrote:... weak production rate...


haha
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lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:46 pm

mtndrew1 wrote:My boss bought a Model S shortly after they changed the seat design and she thought it came with fixed headrests. An over the air firmware update to the car added power adjustable headrests. Subsequently the same updates have added different drive modes (“chill”), rain sensing wipers, easy entry and exit abilities (park and the seat and steering wheel move to make ingress and egress easier), automatic high beams, etc.


Those are basic UI re-flashes, e,g, minor tweaks (typically called re-coding mods) which differ from a re-flash of the overall firmware.
Most ECU suppliers usually provide some flash memory area allowing each end-customer some end-use tweaking. Remember, Tesla like
most automotive OEMs doesn't design or produce all the ECUs in its vehicles, e.g. each ECU may have a unique micro-controller with
a unique instruction set, possibly designed by that supplier or a custom chip design, e.g. from MicroChip. Mostly importantly, for example,
you as an ABS/traction controller supplier wouldn't provide access to all the ECU's firmware, i.e. your mission critical design, and then become
liable for deaths that resulted from an end-user's (Tesla's) re-flash. I really doubt that any systems supplier's legal department would allow
an end user (Tesla) to have access to the full source code and the necessary compiler to do a total re-flash of any propriety design.

mtndrew1 wrote:Tesla can remotely flash nearly every part of the car without it ever seeing a mechanic. If you ever watch one of the cars go through its update cycle you’ll hear and see many of the subsystems going through firmware flashing.


Sure, if you say so! And where are Tesla's public statements of that providing confirmation of what you state? And "you'll hear and see"
the re-flash occurring? That's interesting. The micro-controller chip kinda vibrates and emits a strange sound? Like when your cell
phone OS is updated. Well, you just lost credibility.
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lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:13 pm

Nubo wrote:
lorenfb wrote:You are aware that not all vehicle problems can be resolved by OTA updates, i.e. there're ECUs which can only be re-flashed (updated)
by having the vehicle at the service department using the vehicle's diagnostic tool, e.g. for Nissan - the Consult tool. And in many cases,
the ECU can't easily be re-flashed by the OEM's diagnostic tool, but must be sent back or replaced by the ECU's OEM, e.g. an ABS ECU,
a suspension controller, or the motor controller. A good example is the present Nissan Leaf problem with the TCU module causing
problematic issues with the 12V battery, i.e. most likely the TCU in all likelihood must be replaced. So OTA updates are useful for tweaking
UI issues and major mods to the AP system, but is very limited when it comes to major problematic running/driveability issues. ...


If you're designing a system from the ground up with an OTA update strategy, then I'd reckon you'd push as much logic as possible into the OTA-updateable firmware, leaving only bare-bones startup and limp-mode logic in the EEPROM.


But Tesla is NOT designing ALL the ECUs used in its vehicles! Where did you get that idea? Let me guess, MNL forum? Tesla doesn't have the
engineering resources or the fab capability to produce all the unique sub-systems it needs. As an example, Nvidia doesn't provide re-flash
capability to Nvidia's GPU, e.g. the processor's control store or logic, used by Tesla's AP function. Yes, Tesla can re-compile its source code
for AP and then OTA download, i.e. to a unique flash memory in the GPU, mods to the functionality of the AP but NOT how the GPU functions.
Nvidia maintains proprietary control over that flashable section of the GPU.
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scottf200
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:43 am

Predictions on the smaller BEVs ... LEAF, Bolt, TM3 for end of 1st quarter and end of 2nd quarter?

Image
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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:09 am

scottf200 wrote:Predictions on the smaller BEVs ... LEAF, Bolt, TM3 for end of 1st quarter and end of 2nd quarter?

Image


LEAF will probably double to around 1800 next month, giving it a total of 2845 for 1Q. I think it will then climb slightly and average about 2200/month for 2Q (6600 for the quarter).

Bolt is now being squeezed from the low end (LEAF 2) and the high end (TM3). It will recover from the traditionally poor Jan & Feb months, but not to the point it was at at the end of last year before Model 3 was being delivered to non-insiders and non-owners, and the potential loss of the tax credit probably helped things out as well. I think sales will climb to about 2200 for March (giving them 4800 for 1Q. And then I see them averaging 2400/month for 2Q, so 7200 vehicles.

For Model 3, I don't see them exceeding 1000/week in SALES until towards the end of April. I really don't see we're going to see any meaningful improvement in production rate until that new system from Germany hits the GF floor at the end of March. Then we'll start to see 2500/week production, but those won't translate into sales until at least a month later.

So my prediction for March Model 3 sales is 4000 (they will have an end of quarter push to clear out as many vehicles as possible, utilizing shorter delivery pipelines in CA and the Bay area to achieve that), but even that may be optimistic as I don't think they are really even at 1000/week at this point. This will give them a 1Q total of 8360.

In April we should finally start to see the results of the increased production rate translate into sales during the final week of April. My estimate is 5500. I think they will then hover around 2500 sales/week until the third week of June when we'll start to see the results of the push towards 5000/week. I don't think we will quite get there until July, but this makes my May estimate 10,000 and June 17,000, for a total of 32,500 for the quarter.

So, to sum up:

1Q18:
LEAF: 2845
Bolt: 4800
TM3: 8360

2Q18:
LEAF: 6600
Bolt: 7200
TM3: 32500

1H18:
LEAF: 9445
Bolt: 12000
TM3: 40860
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mtndrew1
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:39 am

I think the new Leaf will do better than you’re predicting; it’s a very solid value with plenty of margin for lease specials and rebates.

I suspect that if Nissan ever stops botching the Leaf ramp (six months after launch and only 900 cars in inventory?!) and if Tesla ever hits liftoff on the Model 3 that the Bolt is gonna get hammered. The ‘18 Leaf is far more comfortable and affordable and is much better equipped than the Bolt and the Model 3 drives like a proper sport sedan. The cheapsakes will go Leaf, the lead foots will go Model 3. The Bolt will be the awkward kid in the middle.
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scottf200
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:43 pm

Well thought out lpickup & mtndrew1. Thx.

mtndrew1 wrote:Model 3 drives like a proper sport sedan




Matt Crowley
Published on Mar 5, 2018
Took my Tesla Model 3 on Laguna Seca Raceway for a track day event on Sunday, March 4, 2018. This was a last minute decision since my Porsche Cayman GT4 track car had a check engine light come on, the day before the event. So, why not try the Tesla Model 3 at Laguna...?

Here is my Tesla Motors Club forum post that details more information about my experience.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... ca.109818/

Model 3 setup:
- 2017 Tesla Model 3 (rear wheel drive, long range 310 mile, premium upgrades)
- 19" TSportline cast wheels w/ Pirelli PZero Nero GT tires (PSI: 33 front / 35 rear)
- Lowered 1.5" w/ 'moderate' springs from Unplugged Performance
- Weather forecast: Mostly sunny skies. High around 55F (12.8°C). Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph.
- Charging: Monterey Supercharger in between sessions (not sure how many times yet)
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GRA
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Mar 06, 2018 6:38 pm

mtndrew1 wrote:I think the new Leaf will do better than you’re predicting; it’s a very solid value with plenty of margin for lease specials and rebates.

I suspect that if Nissan ever stops botching the Leaf ramp (six months after launch and only 900 cars in inventory?!) and if Tesla ever hits liftoff on the Model 3 that the Bolt is gonna get hammered. The ‘18 Leaf is far more comfortable and affordable and is much better equipped than the Bolt and the Model 3 drives like a proper sport sedan. The cheapsakes will go Leaf, the lead foots will go Model 3. The Bolt will be the awkward kid in the middle.

Eh, I don't know. I was pleasantly surprised by how much fun the Bolt is to drive, and would love to take it on a windy back road, LRR tires and all. I haven't driven (or even seen IRL yet) a Gen 2 LEAF, but the first gen didn't get my juices flowing and I doubt the 2nd gen will either; that's not the car's target market. My dream driver's BEV at the moment would be an e-Golf, but with the Bolt's or Model 3's range and accel, i.e. essentially an e-Golf GTI. Model 3 has too much in the way of gimmicky displays and controls to be acceptable to me, as well as being a sedan rather than a hatch. Much as I prefer the e-Golf's no-nonsense controls and displays over the other cars, I prefer the Bolt's D/B plus paddle to the e-Golf's everything on the shifter.
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