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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 15, 2018 7:29 am

edatoakrun wrote:
jlv wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:Any day now it will be just as easy to buy a $35k model 3, as it is today to buy yourself a new model S for "around $50,000"...

Tesla sold S40s (software-limited S60s) at that price to those who placed deposits at that price.

And then cancelled that option, and has subsequently raised the base price several times, to the point where the minimum price of one of these dinosaurs today is $74,500.

Do you expect that the starting price of a model 3 will be ~$50,000, in 2025, when it is also an obsolete ~seven-year-old design?



Dinosaurs- People seem to be lining up for them.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 15, 2018 7:46 am

EVDRIVER wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:
jlv wrote:Tesla sold S40s (software-limited S60s) at that price to those who placed deposits at that price.

And then cancelled that option, and has subsequently raised the base price several times, to the point where the minimum price of one of these dinosaurs today is $74,500.

Do you expect that the starting price of a model 3 will be ~$50,000, in 2025, when it is also an obsolete ~seven-year-old design?


Dinosaurs- People seem to be lining up for them.

...in your imagination.

Model S sales peaked in Q 4 2015:

Here’s a chart of Tesla’s quarterly deliveries since the launch of the Model S in 2012:

https://electrek.co/2018/04/03/tesla-re ... s-q1-2018/

But I expect the S and X will appear really old to buyers, once they can test drive more advanced large BEVs from multiple competitors, due to be on the market within the year.

And, back on topic, after Musk's recent announcements that TSLA will need to limit current capital spending to save some of the cash lost due to model 3 production failures, it seems like there might still be a long wait for a more competitive model S or X successor.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 15, 2018 7:52 am

edatoakrun wrote:Model S sales peaked in 2015:


Hmmmm....so what happened in 2016 to cause this? Oh yeah, the Model X came onto the market which displaced some of the Model S demand from people that wanted a Tesla in an SUV form factor and previously had no other option! Tesla still got those sales Ed! And, between Model S & X, it ended up filling up the factory to capacity for those models.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 15, 2018 9:35 am

lpickup wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:Model S sales peaked in 2015:


Hmmmm....so what happened in 2016 to cause this? Oh yeah, the Model X came onto the market which displaced some of the Model S demand from people that wanted a Tesla in an SUV form factor and previously had no other option! Tesla still got those sales Ed! And, between Model S & X, it ended up filling up the factory to capacity for those models.

You are wasting your time. Ed the Tesla troll just keeps on spewing BS

Ignore trolls.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 15, 2018 12:57 pm

Ed- you may want to see how many people have model 3 reservations. It’s not an illusion or dream. You are more than delusional and clearly bitter you can’t get the 3 in the timeline you want. You and others are just pissed you won’t get the car so now you need it to fail to make you feel better. Good luck.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 15, 2018 1:18 pm

Another production shutdown?
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 15, 2018 1:35 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:Another production shutdown?


Same one they already spoke about in the last earnings call. We just have a specific date now.

Tesla 1Q18 Earnings Report wrote:During Q2, we expect to shut down production for about 10 days, which includes the shutdown we took in April, to address bottlenecks
across the lines and increase production to new levels.


The April shutdown is believed to have been April 16-19 IIRC, and this one (May 26-31) combines to make up the planned 10 day pause during 2Q.

While they will clearly use the time for maintenance/upgrades/repairs/whatever, I personally think they are also making a play to delay delivering vehicle #200K in the US until July 1, so the pause is almost inconsequential as 2Q sales are going to take a hit anyway. Of course I hope they still run full steam ahead and prime the delivery pipeline to deliver as many vehicles as possible in the first 2 weeks of July by having a nice stockpile of vehicles at each delivery center. If this pause allows another incremental increase in production, even better.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 15, 2018 4:09 pm

lpickup wrote:The April shutdown is believed to have been April 16-19 IIRC, and this one (May 26-31) combines to make up the planned 10 day pause during 2Q.

While they will clearly use the time for maintenance/upgrades/repairs/whatever, I personally think they are also making a play to delay delivering vehicle #200K in the US until July 1, so the pause is almost inconsequential as 2Q sales are going to take a hit anyway. Of course I hope they still run full steam ahead and prime the delivery pipeline to deliver as many vehicles as possible in the first 2 weeks of July by having a nice stockpile of vehicles at each delivery center. If this pause allows another incremental increase in production, even better.

They've begun delivering Model 3s to Canada, so no need to hold back production to stay under 200k for Q2 - they can control that through deliveries.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 16, 2018 9:02 am

GRA wrote:They've begun delivering Model 3s to Canada, so no need to hold back production to stay under 200k for Q2 - they can control that through deliveries.

I think the question is whether there is enough demand in Canada for RWD vehicles to give them a big enough relief valve to Canada. It appears the deferral rate for AWD is pretty high in Canada (understandably so).
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 16, 2018 11:32 am

lpickup wrote:
GRA wrote:They've begun delivering Model 3s to Canada, so no need to hold back production to stay under 200k for Q2 - they can control that through deliveries.

I think the question is whether there is enough demand in Canada for RWD vehicles to give them a big enough relief valve to Canada. It appears the deferral rate for AWD is pretty high in Canada (understandably so).
I agree. I think that Tesla will have to stockpile some Model 3s for delivery in July to avoid hitting 200k USA deliveries in June. Canadian orders help, but the total figures to be fairly low for RWD.

Several Canadian orders have been assigned VINs in the 29,000 and 30,000 ranges, so production continues to ramp up quickly. So far as we can tell, VINs are assigned after cars are built and while they are in transit. Transit will take awhile for cars going to Ontario, for example (possible provincial tax changes there, depending on election results, from what I've read).

Washington state deliveries have been speeded up recently, before state tax changes there, according to some WA reservation holders.
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