GRA
Posts: 9512
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:19 pm

palmermd wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
palmermd wrote:
I'm curious what car you see getting released by VW in 2019 that will be a threat to Model 3.


Most all other automotive manufacturers are not like Telsa announcing vehicles, e.g. the M3/MY, years ahead before volume deliveries
can be made!

but we're not talking years you said 2019 which means the car would come out between now and a year from now

No announcements no spy photos no anything, I find that hard to believe

And, via IEVS:
Volkswagen Hits Electric Car Speed Bump, Delays I.D. Hatch Launch
https://insideevs.com/volkswagen-electric-car-delay-id-hatch/

Volkswagen MEB-based EVs are delayed.

It seems that mass-production of Volkswagen‘s MEB-based electric cars is likely already delayed by at least a few months, as the company now states market launch in 2020, from the previous projection of late 2019 (likely November), according to media reports.

Production of the first model, Volkswagen I.D. hatchback in Zwickau, Germany still is expected to hit 100,000 units in the first year, but it’s now unclear whether the Volkswagen I.D. CROZZ (scheduled for 2020) will be delayed a little bit too, which would mean that market launch in the U.S. might then move to 2021, maybe. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:41 pm

lorenfb wrote:
lorenfb wrote:nonot
GRA wrote:Sure the fine was a small portion of his wealth (BTW, he owns about 20% of Tesla, not 40%) but the terms of the settlement included:


I consider it unrealistic to expect the SEC to allow Elon to go on as before with just a slap on the wrist, so I fully expect them to monitor future corporate communications closely.


So it's you that feels it's unrealistic, right? Have you seen specific/enumerated SEC guidelines for Musk, other than what
you've stated? With regard to a new chairman, Musk still has significant influence over that decision and significant influence
over the new chairman's decisions. Besides, the SEC has no control over who the next chairman is. As still CEO, Musk has the all
authority to fully run Tesla based on his strategy and views. So what if Musk no longer communicates about financial decisions
and pro-forma data, he still can communicate, e.g. tweet, about basically everything else about Tesla. The SEC has no control over
what he tweets about his strategy/goals for Tesla as a CEO. Yes Musk has an ego, but it's doubtful that the SEC's ruling has affected
that much and will not significantly curb his modus operandi, i.e. he'll have plenty of wiggle room.


Well, so much for my previous view, i.e. now he's tweeting stupid comments about the SEC. The guy is a joke & HOPELESS!
We in SoCal had a few state facilities for guys like Musk, until they were closed down during the Reagan administration.

Musk sent the tweet referring to the "Shortseller Enrichment Commission" hours after the judge handling his settlement agreement with the SEC ordered both parties to explain why the court should approve it.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/tesla-s ... itter.html

Since nothing in these tweets is illegal, it seems more a freedom of speech issue, and thus outside the SEC's purview. Dumb and unnecessary, sure, but not something that requires regulation, unlike making claims about non-existent funding. That's where he really needs to be muzzled, and where he will be (or the SEC won't just give him a relatively small penalty).
Tesla CEO Elon Musk's use of Twitter is dangerous and needs to be controlled by the company's board — but he hasn't done anything to create another problem with the Securities and Exchange Commission, former SEC Chair Harvey Pitt told CNBC on Friday. . . .

"It demonstrates why the SEC was spot on in requiring as part of its settlement with Musk that the board exercise meaningful control over his tweets," Pitt said in an interview with "Power Lunch."

"But this tweet, as silly and obnoxious as it is, does not do anything other than express his erroneous view. It doesn't relate to the securities laws, and it doesn't even relate to his settlement. So he's allowed to express his views . . . ."[/list]

However, the agreement hit a snag on Thursday after the federal judge assigned to approve it asked the parties to justify the settlement.

Pitt said it's entirely possible the judge may ask Tesla attorneys exactly how they intend to control Musk's tweets.

"This is now a real issue for the judge," he said. . . .

Pitt said Musk's latest tweet on the SEC riles up investors and makes them "worry about the rationality of the person who is supposed to be running this company."

"His tweets are precipitous, mercurial and dangerous [but] … it's up to the board to try and figure out how they can cabin these impulses he seems to have while making use of his creative genius," he said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/musks-tweets-are-dangerous-says-former-sec-chair-harvey-pitt.html

Musk must be listening to somebody, whether Mark Cuban https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/mark-cuban-nudged-elon-musk-to-settle-with-sec.html or someone else, as they convinced him to take a worse deal from the SEC one day after he'd rejected a better one, and that's with only two directors on the board who can be considered independent. Musk's tantrum about the SEC just reinforces the need for adult supervision, and outside investors will likely be the ones to force it, assuming Tesla can't make its upcoming debt payments without further help.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:36 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:For the high mileage drivers, it's simple math. With gas at $4/gal (and rising), after 5 years (18k miles per year), a $50k Tesla costs the same as a $30k accord.

Exactly. Or better.

Non-hybrid ICE drivers pay 10 - 15 cents a mile. EV drivers with PV can pay as little as 0.5 cents a mile (like me.)
A Tesla will last a *long* time, making the money argument very persuasive even before considering the fantastic merits of the car itself.

For me, the arithmetic worked out this way:
51k Tesla before TTL
(10k) old car value
(14.4k) value of a 6 year newer car (based on $200 a month)
(10k) Tax Credits
(10k) Fuel savings over 200k miles @ 5 cents a mile (hybrid Vs EV fueled by my PV.)
-----
$6.6k upgrade cost

Trades are almost always less advantageous than replacing an end-of-life car. Anyone buying a new ICE today should review their arithmetic.


Right, all consumers ALWAYS make rational and totally analytical purchasing decisions. Oh please!
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 70K miles, 49 Ahrs, 5.1 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:51 pm

lorenfb wrote:
SageBrush wrote:Tesla should be settling into a rate of 30,000 sales a month through the end of the year.
Nice job; I look forward to double that by 2020.


And that new production is located where?


I'm surprised you haven't answered the question. You usually respond. Could be that there's NO possible way that Tesla can increase
the production capacity needed to achieve that level, i.e. 30K/month, by year end?
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 70K miles, 49 Ahrs, 5.1 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:53 pm

lpickup wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:@ lorenfb - The $50k Tesla is taken sales away from more than BMW / Audi / MB. People are trading in their $25k+ vehicles (civic, accord, prius) for a $50k one: https://www.autoblog.com/2018/08/02/tes ... trade-ins/


So what! That's a very small percentage of Tesla's delivery backlog, i.e. trade-ins.


It's an indication of what is happening across the board Loren...or are you claiming that 100% of the people whose former vehicles were Civics, Accord and Priuses chose to trade in to Tesla and none of them decided to sell privately?


Do what???????
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 70K miles, 49 Ahrs, 5.1 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:23 pm

lorenfb wrote:
SageBrush wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:For the high mileage drivers, it's simple math. With gas at $4/gal (and rising), after 5 years (18k miles per year), a $50k Tesla costs the same as a $30k accord.

Exactly. Or better.

Non-hybrid ICE drivers pay 10 - 15 cents a mile. EV drivers with PV can pay as little as 0.5 cents a mile (like me.)
A Tesla will last a *long* time, making the money argument very persuasive even before considering the fantastic merits of the car itself.

For me, the arithmetic worked out this way:
51k Tesla before TTL
(10k) old car value
(14.4k) value of a 6 year newer car (based on $200 a month)
(10k) Tax Credits
(10k) Fuel savings over 200k miles @ 5 cents a mile (hybrid Vs EV fueled by my PV.)
-----
$6.6k upgrade cost

Trades are almost always less advantageous than replacing an end-of-life car. Anyone buying a new ICE today should review their arithmetic.


Right, all consumers ALWAYS make rational and totally analytical purchasing decisions. Oh please!


"Right, most consumers make rational and totally analytical purchasing decisions. Oh right!"

FTFY.

Again, nice strawman, but not going to bite.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
Date - Miles / GIDs:
May '17 - 7300 mi / 363
Feb '18 - 20.5k mi / 333

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:37 pm

lorenfb wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
SageBrush wrote:Tesla should be settling into a rate of 30,000 sales a month through the end of the year.
Nice job; I look forward to double that by 2020.


And that new production is located where?


I'm surprised you haven't answered the question. You usually respond. Could be that there's NO possible way that Tesla can increase
the production capacity needed to achieve that level, i.e. 30K/month, by year end?


why does he need to address against a fallacy? Are you incapable of doing math?!

30k/month is about 7500/week. Elon's stretch target is 10k/month out of fremont by year end, where they recently were able to burst up to 7k/week (not sustainable yet).

shanghai gigafactory is planned to start production in 2020 with a target of 250k cars or about 5k/week.

why is that so hard to believe?

these aren't met goals, but they are what Tesla is working towards. for the most part, tesla has either met their production goals or have gotten very close.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
Date - Miles / GIDs:
May '17 - 7300 mi / 363
Feb '18 - 20.5k mi / 333

lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:34 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
And that new production is located where?


I'm surprised you haven't answered the question. You usually respond. Could be that there's NO possible way that Tesla can increase
the production capacity needed to achieve that level, i.e. 30K/month, by year end?


why does he need to address against a fallacy? Are you incapable of doing math?!

30k/month is about 7500/week. Elon's stretch target is 10k/month out of fremont by year end, where they recently were able to burst up to 7k/week (not sustainable yet).

shanghai gigafactory is planned to start production in 2020 with a target of 250k cars or about 5k/week.

why is that so hard to believe?

these aren't met goals, but they are what Tesla is working towards. for the most part, tesla has either met their production goals or have gotten very close.


Right, dream-on! Been smoking any the stuff Elon uses? Hopefully you've got a sell limit order on TSLA and it gets
executed when the Q3 filing occurs and Tesla takes another 30 - 40 point hit. Just sell Tesla and buy Amazon,
ego decisions and wishful thinking don't yield positive returns in the stock market! Remember, Tesla isn't an Apple
that continue to produce +20% GPs after the initial product intro, i.e. that +$50K M3 backlog is diminishing and
the final test rejects aren't moving from the storage lots. Maybe Tesla can salvage bodies and achieve the 30K monthly
production some of the naïve forecast for the balance of 2018.

Every now and then, one needs to read the M3 thread to have a little more humor in life.
Last edited by lorenfb on Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 70K miles, 49 Ahrs, 5.1 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

cwerdna
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:37 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:for the most part, tesla has either met their production goals or have gotten very close.

They've missed them left and right.

A few examples:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/881 ... 32?lang=en
Elon Musk
Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec
11:12 PM - 2 Jul 2017

He got there in the last 7 days of June 2018: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/ca ... 750590002/.

From http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news- ... deliveries
Q4 production totaled 24,565 vehicles, of which 2,425 were Model 3.
...
During Q4, we made major progress addressing Model 3 production bottlenecks, with our production rate increasing significantly towards the end of the quarter. In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3's, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week.
...
As we continue to focus on quality and efficiency rather than simply pushing for the highest possible volume in the shortest period of time, we expect to have a slightly more gradual ramp through Q1, likely ending the quarter at a weekly rate of about 2,500 Model 3 vehicles.

But they missed the 2,500/week as well: https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/3/17192 ... -elon-musk.

For Q3, 2017 “We are confident we can produce just over 1,500 vehicles in Q3, and achieve a run rate of 5,000 vehicles per week by the end of 2017..." yet per http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news- ... production, they only produced 260 Model 3.

'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)
'06 Prius

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

SageBrush
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Location: Colorado

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Oct 07, 2018 3:44 am

lorenfb wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
SageBrush wrote:Tesla should be settling into a rate of 30,000 sales a month through the end of the year.
Nice job; I look forward to double that by 2020.


And that new production is located where?


I'm surprised you haven't answered the question. You usually respond. Could be that there's NO possible way that Tesla can increase
the production capacity needed to achieve that level, i.e. 30K/month, by year end?

Tesla delivered 29,975 cars in September. Read my earlier post again, I said that I expect Tesla to continue that rate through the end of the year. Your question where that would occur, when it is already a fact, does not deserve a response.

Doubling that rate by 2020 is a slightly better question. Tesla has to reach the production level of NUUMI (500k per year) + 200k from their tent line to reach that level. That is not even a stretch goal.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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