Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 496
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:35 am

cwerdna wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:for the most part, tesla has either met their production goals or have gotten very close.

They've missed them left and right.

A few examples:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/881 ... 32?lang=en
Elon Musk
Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec
11:12 PM - 2 Jul 2017

He got there in the last 7 days of June 2018: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/ca ... 750590002/.

From http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news- ... deliveries
Q4 production totaled 24,565 vehicles, of which 2,425 were Model 3.
...
During Q4, we made major progress addressing Model 3 production bottlenecks, with our production rate increasing significantly towards the end of the quarter. In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3's, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week.
...
As we continue to focus on quality and efficiency rather than simply pushing for the highest possible volume in the shortest period of time, we expect to have a slightly more gradual ramp through Q1, likely ending the quarter at a weekly rate of about 2,500 Model 3 vehicles.

But they missed the 2,500/week as well: https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/3/17192 ... -elon-musk.

For Q3, 2017 “We are confident we can produce just over 1,500 vehicles in Q3, and achieve a run rate of 5,000 vehicles per week by the end of 2017..." yet per http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news- ... production, they only produced 260 Model 3.


i guess my "production goals" qualifier wasn't clear enough. I meant that even if late, they get to the production they've set out for:
- model X is unbuildable: now at 1000/week
- model 3 can't make 5000/wk: they are now
- model s demand won't exceed 20k/yr: they still are selling more than that.
- can't build 30k/month model 3 in existing factory: this was what i was trying to answer.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
Date - Miles / GIDs:
May '17 - 7300 mi / 363
Feb '18 - 20.5k mi / 333

SageBrush
Posts: 2923
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:02 am

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:i guess my "production goals" qualifier wasn't clear enough. I meant that even if late, they get to the production they've set out for

This is exactly the point that Tesla trolls and skeptics are blind to. Tesla is routinely late, but they make what they say they will make. Unlike e.g. Nissan, where a forward looking production statement is just an aspirational marketing message.

Tesla owners learn patience;
LEAF owners sign up for deception, e.g. DC charging, battery degradation, and capacity bar manipulation.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

lorenfb
Posts: 1845
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:51 am

And now another perspective and surely all are open minded to another perspective on the real M3 long term demand, right?

Regardless of how Q3 financials pan out, the biggest problem that besets Tesla today is demand (or the lack thereof). As discussed in the previous note, the situation with the LR model demand has gotten so bad that Tesla has now essentially stopped producing this version (image below from Model 3 public tracker). Note the paucity of blue dots that represent the LR version. Similar story is playing out with the “P” and “AWD” versions. Note from the image below that the reservation queue demand for “P” and “AWD” versions is almost exhausted. Note the very steep roll-offs during the last week of the quarter. This is bad news for Tesla as the Model 3 Performance version is the only Model 3 with decent gross margins. Note that the reservation queue for this highest margin version is all but gone.

On the upside, Tesla has recently drummed up additional sales for this model by offering free lifetime Supercharging. Thanks to this long-term loss-making promotion, Tesla has been able to drum up “P” version demand by about thousand cars. We predict that the reservation queue, including this new demand, will be essentially satisfied during the first or second week of October. Going into November, there is very little demand for the only Model 3 with respectable margins.


And for those with inside info, refute the above. Please, no more wishing what the real long term $50K+ M3 market is.

The Q3 delivery report is tame and lacks the bluster we have seen in recent quarters. While the hints are subtle, there is little doubt that Tesla is laying the groundwork for a future guidance reduction. The narrative fits with the lack of demand signs that are now becoming increasingly obvious.
Based on all available information to date, here are some predictions:
Due to dramatically reduced demand for the current models in the US, Tesla will have to:
1. Speculatively ship product to Europe ahead of homologation.
2. Release a new lower priced Model 3 in Q4 (something in the $40K-$45K price range possible).
3. If A or B does not happen, then Tesla will see an emphatic downtick in Q4 demand.
When it comes to Model S and Model X, the ground has already been laid in Q3 deliveries report in the form of China tariff issue. Due to China issues, Tesla will see much lower Model S and Model X demand going forward. Tax credit expiration in the US and Netherlands will help demand somewhat, but Tesla will have to significantly ramp down Model S and Model X production in Q4. What is worse is that the demand challenges of Model S and Model X pale in comparison to Model 3 problems. Tesla MUST start dramatically reducing Model 3 production or shut it down altogether for several weeks in Q4.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/421025 ... tesla?dr=1

As I stated upthread, Tesla could possibly reduce the loss per vehicle from about $17K per vehicle in Q2 to about $1K - $2K and
even show a small profit with freebees, i.e. ZEV credits. Can Tesla survive long term just producing 200K - 300K vehicles
per year as a niche player, maybe, but not with Elon. By the beginning of next month, we'll see whether the above proves correct.
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 70K miles, 49 Ahrs, 5.1 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

SageBrush
Posts: 2923
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:16 am

seekingalpha ?!?
ROFL

You may as well parrot trump while you are at it.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

User avatar
EVDRIVER
Moderator
Posts: 6495
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:51 am

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:49 am

SageBrush wrote:seekingalpha ?!?
ROFL

You may as well parrot trump while you are at it.



Loren comes back when there are some crumbs to troll on. Loren can't and won't answer simple questions like "have you ever driven a Tesla?".

My guess is Loren wanted a M3 but the price was not as expected now it's Tesla payback time. Such a tired and unoriginal theme.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 496
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Oct 07, 2018 12:00 pm

lorenfb wrote:And now another perspective and surely all are open minded to another perspective on the real M3 long term demand, right?

Regardless of how Q3 financials pan out, the biggest problem that besets Tesla today is demand (or the lack thereof). As discussed in the previous note, the situation with the LR model demand has gotten so bad that Tesla has now essentially stopped producing this version (image below from Model 3 public tracker). Note the paucity of blue dots that represent the LR version. Similar story is playing out with the “P” and “AWD” versions. Note from the image below that the reservation queue demand for “P” and “AWD” versions is almost exhausted. Note the very steep roll-offs during the last week of the quarter. This is bad news for Tesla as the Model 3 Performance version is the only Model 3 with decent gross margins. Note that the reservation queue for this highest margin version is all but gone.

On the upside, Tesla has recently drummed up additional sales for this model by offering free lifetime Supercharging. Thanks to this long-term loss-making promotion, Tesla has been able to drum up “P” version demand by about thousand cars. We predict that the reservation queue, including this new demand, will be essentially satisfied during the first or second week of October. Going into November, there is very little demand for the only Model 3 with respectable margins.


And for those with inside info, refute the above. Please, no more wishing what the real long term $50K+ M3 market is.

The Q3 delivery report is tame and lacks the bluster we have seen in recent quarters. While the hints are subtle, there is little doubt that Tesla is laying the groundwork for a future guidance reduction. The narrative fits with the lack of demand signs that are now becoming increasingly obvious.
Based on all available information to date, here are some predictions:
Due to dramatically reduced demand for the current models in the US, Tesla will have to:
1. Speculatively ship product to Europe ahead of homologation.
2. Release a new lower priced Model 3 in Q4 (something in the $40K-$45K price range possible).
3. If A or B does not happen, then Tesla will see an emphatic downtick in Q4 demand.
When it comes to Model S and Model X, the ground has already been laid in Q3 deliveries report in the form of China tariff issue. Due to China issues, Tesla will see much lower Model S and Model X demand going forward. Tax credit expiration in the US and Netherlands will help demand somewhat, but Tesla will have to significantly ramp down Model S and Model X production in Q4. What is worse is that the demand challenges of Model S and Model X pale in comparison to Model 3 problems. Tesla MUST start dramatically reducing Model 3 production or shut it down altogether for several weeks in Q4.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/421025 ... tesla?dr=1

As I stated upthread, Tesla could possibly reduce the loss per vehicle from about $17K per vehicle in Q2 to about $1K - $2K and
even show a small profit with freebees, i.e. ZEV credits. Can Tesla survive long term just producing 200K - 300K vehicles
per year as a niche player, maybe, but not with Elon. By the beginning of next month, we'll see whether the above proves correct.


if you haven't realized it yet, seeking alpha is a bastion of misinformation. The worst amongst them is Anton Wahlman (case and point was his article about how the Bolt was outselling the model 3 8-to-1)! you have to keep in mind that they're opinion pieces. use them for their source material, but don't take their writer's opinions as gospel.

the model3 LR doesn't have a demand problem, as new orders still have a 4 week delivery timeframe. the reason there's been mostly AWD sales, is because the backlog of AWD reservation holders were just fulfilled this quarter (production just started in june). plus, they're higher profit, so many were pre-built as part of a batch build to take advantage of a quick sale and to optimize profitability.

now that the end of quarter rush is over, deliveries should be more representative of actual demand.

also, with the focus on profitability, there is no need for restructuring nor refinancing of debt. these are merely the claims (amongst years of failed ones) being made by the short-sellers.

As i told joe6pack, you're getting bad info from bad source material.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
Date - Miles / GIDs:
May '17 - 7300 mi / 363
Feb '18 - 20.5k mi / 333

lorenfb
Posts: 1845
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Oct 07, 2018 5:33 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:[
As i told joe6pack, you're getting bad info from bad source material.


You can assume it's bad data and dismiss it as you've done, or you can refute it rationally, either using your data or his.
The article presents public data and draws a conclusion. If you disagree then, either challenge the data he presents
or rationalize how his data can lead to opposing conclusions. Just because you disagree, let's not obfuscate the facts.
Not only do I read and reference articles about Tesla, but I also obtain my own public automotive market data and
analyze it based on my background to determine my opinion, just as others do on MNL.
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 70K miles, 49 Ahrs, 5.1 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 496
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:08 pm

lorenfb wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:[
As i told joe6pack, you're getting bad info from bad source material.


You can assume it's bad data and dismiss it as you've done, or you can refute it rationally, either using your data or his.
The article presents public data and draws a conclusion. If you disagree then, either challenge the data he presents
or rationalize how his data can lead to opposing conclusions. Just because you disagree, let's not obfuscate the facts.
Not only do I read and reference articles about Tesla, but I also obtain my own public automotive market data and
analyze it based on my background to determine my opinion, just as others do on MNL.


reread my post, as i've done just that.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
Date - Miles / GIDs:
May '17 - 7300 mi / 363
Feb '18 - 20.5k mi / 333

lorenfb
Posts: 1845
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:00 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:[
As i told joe6pack, you're getting bad info from bad source material.


You can assume it's bad data and dismiss it as you've done, or you can refute it rationally, either using your data or his.
The article presents public data and draws a conclusion. If you disagree then, either challenge the data he presents
or rationalize how his data can lead to opposing conclusions. Just because you disagree, let's not obfuscate the facts.
Not only do I read and reference articles about Tesla, but I also obtain my own public automotive market data and
analyze it based on my background to determine my opinion, just as others do on MNL.


reread my post, as i've done just that.


Let's wait for the Q3 report.
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 70K miles, 49 Ahrs, 5.1 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

Durandal
Posts: 335
Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:55 am
Delivery Date: 22 Sep 2016
Leaf Number: 025018
Location: Central Arkansas

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:31 am

Degradation of my 2012 Leaf has been faster than I anticipated, unfortunately (from a financial perspective) but I guess the upside is that it will give me incentive to finally order an SR Model 3 and add Autopilot to it some time early next year. The thing I find so funny about the people who are so adamant that Tesla will fail is they have a vested EMOTIONAL interest in Tesla failing. Either they have a financial gain to be had (either directly, or because they work for a competitor), they're a hater because of brand loyalty to some other brand, or they just hate Tesla due to jealousy. Most anti-Tesla people I've seen in the Twitter world are petrol heads. I can't imagine why anyone who is sincere about preventing climate change and wants clean air/water would try to disparage Tesla.

Anyhow, my thread-jacking 2c...
Pulled the trigger on going EV on 10/2016 with a 2012 Leaf, and a Tesla Model 3 reservation expected to receive in June 2018.

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