GRA
Posts: 9390
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:45 pm

Some more details Via IEVS:
. . . Top speed is listed at 125 mph and 0 to 60 MPH is just 5.6 seconds.

Delivery is listed at 6 to 10 weeks.

This is believed to be the 3rd battery option (short, mid and long) that will eventually be offered on the Model 3.

Turns out it’s a long-range battery with fewer cells, which means production can happen almost right away.

Or, they could just offer the 3LR without the pano roof and other features that kick the base MSRP up from $45 to $49k, as they originally said they would.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

joeriv
Posts: 174
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2013 1:33 pm
Location: Fairfield County CT

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:03 pm

A great read on Model 3 manufacturing costs:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-17/tearing-apart-teslas-to-find-elon-musk-s-best-and-worst-decisions?srnd=hyperdrive

“Sandy Munro, the founder of Munro & Associates, a small firm that disassembles new cars piece by piece, concluded that the Model 3 costs about $2,000 more to produce than a similarly-priced BMW i3 and may have additional cost problems in its assembly plant. Some compact cars and family sedans produced by conventional automakers don’t make $2,000 in total profit per vehicle.

Many of the problems stem from unconventional choices made by Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk. “If that car was made anywhere else, and Elon wasn’t part of the manufacturing process, they would make a lot of money,” Munro said in an interview. “They’re just learning all the old mistakes everyone else made years ago.” Munro said he admires Tesla’s technology, so he sent the company a pro bono list of 227 suggested improvements.”
2017 Leaf S with QC, JUN mfg date

Zythryn
Posts: 1062
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 4:49 am

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:23 pm

GRA wrote:Some more details Via IEVS:
. . . Top speed is listed at 125 mph and 0 to 60 MPH is just 5.6 seconds.

Delivery is listed at 6 to 10 weeks.

This is believed to be the 3rd battery option (short, mid and long) that will eventually be offered on the Model 3.

Turns out it’s a long-range battery with fewer cells, which means production can happen almost right away.

Or, they could just offer the 3LR without the pano roof and other features that kick the base MSRP up from $45 to $49k, as they originally said they would.


I’m sure they will. This allows them a higher efficiency on their manufacturing lines.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
Current owner of Model 3
http://www.netzeromn.com

SageBrush
Posts: 2841
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:22 pm

Zythryn wrote:Well, it isn’t the base model, but Tesla is now offering a mid-range version of the Model 3.
$4000 cheaper ($45k), 260 mile epa range, premium package RWD.

It will be interesting to read the range by EPA testing for insight into Tesla retail battery pricing. I know Tesla recently increased the price of its residential battery storage.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

palmermd
Posts: 2504
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:19 pm
Delivery Date: 31 Mar 2011
Leaf Number: 1100011011
Location: Hermosa Beach, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:34 pm

Zythryn wrote:Well, it isn’t the base model, but Tesla is now offering a mid-range version of the Model 3.
$4000 cheaper ($45k), 260 mile epa range, premium package RWD.

I did not see this coming, complete surprise to me. If it makes it easier for more people to get into an EV I’m all for it :D


Nice. I did not see this coming either. I have several friends who are holding off ordering and this is what they were looking for. I'm still waiting for the SR with Premium Package, but this is close. If my job were not a bit unstable at the moment, I might jump at this version of the car. For now I'm still waiting.
Michael

Leaf since 31 March 2011
Driving electric since 1996


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webb14leafs
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:43 am
Delivery Date: 27 Mar 2017

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:40 am

Zythryn wrote:Well, it isn’t the base model, but Tesla is now offering a mid-range version of the Model 3.
$4000 cheaper ($45k), 260 mile epa range, premium package RWD.

I did not see this coming, complete surprise to me. If it makes it easier for more people to get into an EV I’m all for it :D


That values the battery at about $375-$400/kWhr. That's pretty high. Musk has said Tesla is well below $200/kWhr and pushing to $100.

Zythryn
Posts: 1062
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 4:49 am

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:58 am

webb14leafs wrote:
Zythryn wrote:Well, it isn’t the base model, but Tesla is now offering a mid-range version of the Model 3.
$4000 cheaper ($45k), 260 mile epa range, premium package RWD.

I did not see this coming, complete surprise to me. If it makes it easier for more people to get into an EV I’m all for it :D


That values the battery at about $375-$400/kWhr. That's pretty high. Musk has said Tesla is well below $200/kWhr and pushing to $100.


That is an extremely rough calculation.
We don’t know the size of the battery pack. We also don’t know the profit margin of the mid range vehicle.
I also haven’t reviewed the epa papers on the range. Tesla downrated the range of the RWD long range by 34 miles (it actually tested at 343). Perhaps the mid range tested at 260. This would also change the calculations.

I’ll see what I can find.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
Current owner of Model 3
http://www.netzeromn.com

SageBrush
Posts: 2841
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:26 am

Zythryn wrote:That is an extremely rough calculation.
We don’t know the size of the battery pack. We also don’t know the profit margin of the mid range vehicle.
I also haven’t reviewed the epa papers on the range. Tesla downrated the range of the RWD long range by 34 miles (it actually tested at 343). Perhaps the mid range tested at 260. This would also change the calculations.

Exactly.
Though once we have the EPA tested range we will know the battery capacity reduction in kWh.
Since we know the price reduction in the otherwise identical Model 3 LR it will be tempting to call the quotient the Tesla retail $/kWh
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

webb14leafs
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:43 am
Delivery Date: 27 Mar 2017

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:23 am

Zythryn wrote:
webb14leafs wrote:
Zythryn wrote:Well, it isn’t the base model, but Tesla is now offering a mid-range version of the Model 3.
$4000 cheaper ($45k), 260 mile epa range, premium package RWD.

I did not see this coming, complete surprise to me. If it makes it easier for more people to get into an EV I’m all for it :D


That values the battery at about $375-$400/kWhr. That's pretty high. Musk has said Tesla is well below $200/kWhr and pushing to $100.


That is an extremely rough calculation.
We don’t know the size of the battery pack. We also don’t know the profit margin of the mid range vehicle.
I also haven’t reviewed the epa papers on the range. Tesla downrated the range of the RWD long range by 34 miles (it actually tested at 343). Perhaps the mid range tested at 260. This would also change the calculations.

I’ll see what I can find.


True. If it's a 60 mile difference, that would be roughly 15kWhr. That would only by $266/kWhr. And that doesn't include any other options that might separate the $45K mid range from the $49K long range. For some reason I was thinking it would equate to 10kWhr, but now I expect it will be closer to the 15.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 492
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:00 pm

Zythryn wrote:
webb14leafs wrote:
Zythryn wrote:Well, it isn’t the base model, but Tesla is now offering a mid-range version of the Model 3.
$4000 cheaper ($45k), 260 mile epa range, premium package RWD.

I did not see this coming, complete surprise to me. If it makes it easier for more people to get into an EV I’m all for it :D


That values the battery at about $375-$400/kWhr. That's pretty high. Musk has said Tesla is well below $200/kWhr and pushing to $100.


That is an extremely rough calculation.
We don’t know the size of the battery pack. We also don’t know the profit margin of the mid range vehicle.
I also haven’t reviewed the epa papers on the range. Tesla downrated the range of the RWD long range by 34 miles (it actually tested at 343). Perhaps the mid range tested at 260. This would also change the calculations.

I’ll see what I can find.


Here ya go. Best breakdown of potential costs and effect on profitability of the LeMR I've seen: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/3134655/

TL;DR: the new MR model is an attempt to maximize the number of cars they can deliver despite being constrained by current cell production capacity, while maintaining gross profit margin.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
Date - Miles / GIDs:
May '17 - 7300 mi / 363
Feb '18 - 20.5k mi / 333

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