cwerdna
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:33 am

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:The funny thing about the statistics showing how "poorly" the leaf and bolt sells (less than few months inventory - https://insideevs.com/chevy-volt-bolt-s ... mber-2018/, ) is that they still sell much better than many ICE models!

Sure but US Bolt and Leaf sales are puny compared to that of GM and Nissan's US sales and most of their other models.

Look at http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019/01/de ... le-ranked/.

https://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa ... -u-s-sales
https://media.gm.com/dld/content/Pages/ ... 4-2018.pdf from right side of https://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/new ... sales.html

GM no longer releases monthly sales figures, only quarterly now.

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:52 am

cwerdna wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:The funny thing about the statistics showing how "poorly" the leaf and bolt sells (less than few months inventory - https://insideevs.com/chevy-volt-bolt-s ... mber-2018/, ) is that they still sell much better than many ICE models!

Sure but US Bolt and Leaf sales are puny compared to that of GM and Nissan's US sales and most of their other models.

Look at http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019/01/de ... le-ranked/.

https://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa ... -u-s-sales
https://media.gm.com/dld/content/Pages/ ... 4-2018.pdf from right side of https://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/new ... sales.html

GM no longer releases monthly sales figures, only quarterly now.


That's a supply issue. The bolt production had already been increased by 20% in 2018. They just need to increase production further, but I'm sure they're having trouble with profitability and battery cell supply. The demand is there though.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

cwerdna
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:17 am

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:That's a supply issue. The bolt production had already been increased by 20% in 2018. They just need to increase production further, but I'm sure they're having trouble with profitability and battery cell supply. The demand is there though.

Is there really a supply issue?

I was pointed to deals in the Bolt thread (which someone on a FB group pointed me to). https://www.martinchevrolet.com/invento ... t-Bolt_EV/ allegedly has 118 Bolts, presumably mostly or all in stock. Notice the big discounts? (Was also pointed out to me that $1500 of the discount is only for current GM lessees.)

https://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/com ... orion.html is running only a single shift. If you go look at their truck and SUV US plants, they're running 2-3 shifts. (Click on Assembly on the right side.)

I can't speak to battery supply though.

Meanwhile, Tesla is decimating everyone else in US BEV sales: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ w/virtually no discounting.

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:01 am

cwerdna wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:That's a supply issue. The bolt production had already been increased by 20% in 2018. They just need to increase production further, but I'm sure they're having trouble with profitability and battery cell supply. The demand is there though.

Is there really a supply issue?

I was pointed to deals in the Bolt thread (which someone on a FB group pointed me to). https://www.martinchevrolet.com/invento ... t-Bolt_EV/ allegedly has 118 Bolts, presumably mostly or all in stock. Notice the big discounts? (Was also pointed out to me that $1500 of the discount is only for current GM lessees.)

https://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/com ... orion.html is running only a single shift. If you go look at their truck and SUV US plants, they're running 2-3 shifts. (Click on Assembly on the right side.)

I can't speak to battery supply though.

Meanwhile, Tesla is decimating everyone else in US BEV sales: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ w/virtually no discounting.


Indeed Tesla is decimating everyone. But that just points to Tesla being the force behind the mindset change. For the longest time CNBC had been running headlines downplaying TSLA, and now they're starting to change their tone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K-iWhW ... e=youtu.be

All this just supports the idea that we've hit the tipping point.

As for the bolt discounts, those are just for the CARB states, because those ZEV credit requirements have gone up (from 2% in 2018 to 4% in 2019, and ever higher each year: https://insideevs.com/unpacking-the-zer ... e-mandate/, https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/4249). So a sale in a CARB state is 3.9 ZEV credits, which is worth at least $5000 to GM. Discounting the cars is a way to control how many are sold into CARB states.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

cwerdna
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:43 am

^^^
And, keep in mind, AFAIK Tesla still doesn't do leases on the 3 whereas virtually every other EV/PHEV can be leased from the automaker/their leasing arm.

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

SageBrush
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:53 am

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: Discounting the cars is a way to control how many are sold into CARB states.

A $5,000+ discount on a new car is required to meet the ZEV sales quota. The quota works out to ~ 1% of Nissan vehicles sold in the CARB states for 2019. Considering that e.g., in California 6% of vehicle sales are plug-ins, the discount shows just how hard it is to move the LEAF.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:42 am

SageBrush wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: Discounting the cars is a way to control how many are sold into CARB states.

A $5,000+ discount on a new car is required to meet the ZEV sales quota. The quota works out to ~ 1% of Nissan vehicles sold in the CARB states for 2019. Considering that e.g., in California 6% of vehicle sales are plug-ins, the discount shows just how hard it is to move the LEAF.


The leaf seems to be doing fine globally. Southern US just plain sucks to own a leaf. Now that the 30kwh battery degradation seems to be within normal ranges (as opposed to excessive without the firmware update), I can see the 40kwh leaf holding it's resale value much better and it having a usable life beyond 200k miles.

After my '16 is out of warranty in about 4 years, will be in the market for a used '18 leaf with only 75% battery life remaining. Expecting it to be under 10k and having a usable 80mile range (60% battery life) until 200k miles. The TCO of that should be phenomenology!
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

SanCarlosJeff
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:54 am

cwerdna wrote:^^^
And, keep in mind, AFAIK Tesla still doesn't do leases on the 3 whereas virtually every other EV/PHEV can be leased from the automaker/their leasing arm.


Yep, that's still the case. I looked into leasing a 3 but since that wasn't available got the Leaf instead.
-Jeff
Prius: 2005-2012
Volt: 2012-2018
Leaf:2018-??

lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:32 am

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:Besides, the math is already there. The fact that people don't apply it now doesn't mean they won't realize it later.



You're sure the typical auto consumers are on the verge of an epiphany, i.e. will very soon abandon their appeal for an ICEV, right?
And those here in SoCal with F150s will soon trade for a M3. Please!

By the way, why do I see so many M3s stored in a lot on Culver Blvd near the Marina, across from the Tesla distribution center?
Those M3s have been there since the 1/1. Tesla having a problem "moving" M3s in Q1? Tesla has never used that lot before.
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 70K miles, 49 Ahrs, 5.1 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

SageBrush
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:40 am

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
SageBrush wrote:
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: Discounting the cars is a way to control how many are sold into CARB states.

A $5,000+ discount on a new car is required to meet the ZEV sales quota. The quota works out to ~ 1% of Nissan vehicles sold in the CARB states for 2019. Considering that e.g., in California 6% of vehicle sales are plug-ins, the discount shows just how hard it is to move the LEAF.

The leaf seems to be doing fine globally.

... during the year that Tesla Model 3 was not available.
If the US is any indication, LEAF sales will crater in Europe in 2019. I can think of reasons why not, by the way:

1. Europe much prefers hatch over sedan
2. Europe has a cooler climate and a more favorable view of Nissan TMS-less battery cars
3. The LEAF is cheaper

We'll see. I hope the LEAF has enough success for Nissan stay in the game and actually put some R&D into the car for a change.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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