SageBrush
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Mar 09, 2019 7:03 am

golfcart wrote: Why offer it then? Nobody expected that trim.
I don't speak for everybody.
My point is that the $35k version may be popular in moderate climates and Tesla is offering an improved package for $37k.

I just looked up the LEAF prices. The 40 kWh 'S' model msrp is $30k while the 62 kWh 'S' model is $6,500 more. The larger battery gives 75 more EPA miles of range. So Nissan is charging $86 per extra EPA mile. Tesla is charging $100 per extra EPA mile ... and adding all the rest I listed above. And of course the LEAF battery is garbage. But even if we used the LEAF battery as a baseline for cost the $2,000 is 20 miles * $86/mile = $1,720 of that amount. So for $280 you get close to the premium interior and a considerably faster car.

As I said, the $37k Model 3 is a sweet spot in value.
Last edited by SageBrush on Sat Mar 09, 2019 7:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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golfcart
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Mar 09, 2019 7:32 am

SageBrush wrote: As I said, the $37k Model 3 is a sweet spot in value.
I never disagreed with that statement, we are in full agreement that it is definitely the sweet spot.
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DaveinOlyWA
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:08 am

SageBrush wrote:
golfcart wrote:I'm still kind of angry at Elon for not putting heated seats in the $35k model. It makes me wonder if they actually want to sell any of those or if they just want to say they kept their promise.
That caught my attention too, but I would not care about it if I lived in a temperate climate like CA. In fact, I would appreciate not paying for something I would never use. Since CA is a HUGE market for Tesla your argument that demand for that model will be poor reads like sour grapes.

IIRC, a $2,000 upgrade that includes a better interior, heated seats, and a larger battery is offered. That strikes me as the sweet spot in value.
Having spent a lot of years in California, I can assure you your contention that seat heaters are not needed is quite wrong. Our ability to adapt is quite small. A Washingtonian visiting California wouldn't need seat heaters but Californians would.

I remember jumping out of bed to stand in front of the wall heater (only heat in my apartment) to warm up because I was freezing. The temperature? 65º
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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:11 am

golfcart wrote:
Why offer it then? Nobody expected that trim.
I'll go back to a statement I made earlier (not sure if it was here or somewhere else), but if a $35K car was promised in 2016, in today's dollars that would be $36,707. Now yes, Elon promised a $35,000 car. I don't remember him making any particular promises about specific trim components (certainly not something like heated seats), but if you expect a $35,000 car in 2019 dollars, because of inflation, you are going to get a little bit less car. Although frankly, heated seats is definitely something I would not expect to show up in a base car. And if it makes you feel better, you are getting a glass roof for that $35,000, and that was almost certainly mentioned as something that would NOT be on the base model (it was advertised as being part of the $5000 PUP package).

Now, the one point worth arguing is whether losing out on $3850 or $5625 of tax credit is a valid argument.

Looking back at expectations in the days leading up to March 31, 2016, and the time shortly after, I'll say this.

Prior to the announcement, the whole reason that I went to the store to wait in line as opposed to just ordering online later that day was because my expectations at the time were that the Model 3 would not enter production until 2018 and not ramp up until 2019 (it was only after seeing the reservations that the schedule was accelerated by a year). In doing my math, I figured that I would have to be near the front of the line to get the full tax credit, given that in that time frame I expected Model S & X alone to trigger the phase out. I fully expected to get the car in either late 2018 or early 2019 (and this is why I had timed a car lease to terminate then). Now while I don't think it was specifically mentioned whether the base model would be offered at the time of release or not prior to the reveal, reasonable expectations would have been that it would not (although I was still holding out hope for a non-PUP release within a few months). So a reasonable expectation for someone placing a deposit pre-reveal was probably around 50/50 (or worse) that the base model would be eligible for the full $7500 tax credit.

Post-reveal the expectations changed. It shifted to Model 3 producting being ramped up in time for a significant number to be eligible for the full credit, although it was also clear by then that the base model would not be the priority. I think a fair assessment of the odds would have been greater than 50/50, but definitely not a sure thing.

So yes, there is some merit to the argument that $35K reservation holders are in effect having to pay more than they expected, but I do think a reasonable expectation was that it would not be eligible. A reasonable expectation would have been that it would have been in time for the $3750 credit, and for a lucky few, this may be the case, but most are going to be in the $1875 time period. Meaning effectively they lose out on $1875. And that gets us back to the inflation argument again...$35,000 + $1875 of lost credit opportunity is $36,875, which in 2016 dollars is $35,160.
...Lance

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:11 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
SageBrush wrote:
golfcart wrote:I'm still kind of angry at Elon for not putting heated seats in the $35k model. It makes me wonder if they actually want to sell any of those or if they just want to say they kept their promise.
That caught my attention too, but I would not care about it if I lived in a temperate climate like CA. In fact, I would appreciate not paying for something I would never use. Since CA is a HUGE market for Tesla your argument that demand for that model will be poor reads like sour grapes.

IIRC, a $2,000 upgrade that includes a better interior, heated seats, and a larger battery is offered. That strikes me as the sweet spot in value.
Having spent a lot of years in California, I can assure you your contention that seat heaters are not needed is quite wrong. Our ability to adapt is quite small. A Washingtonian visiting California wouldn't need seat heaters but Californians would.

I remember jumping out of bed to stand in front of the wall heater (only heat in my apartment) to warm up because I was freezing. The temperature? 65º
It's 19 where I am in CA now. The bay area is cold in the summer and northern CA gets in the 30's. Seat heaters are very useful in CA and reduce the need for using the heater. Spend a summer in SF, it's not SD or Florida and I think 65 is ver warm when those in So Cal are freezing,

SageBrush
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:14 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote: Having spent a lot of years in California, I can assure you your contention that seat heaters are not needed is quite wrong.
I was born in CA, and I can assure you your statement is nonsense. I didn't even now that car seaters existed until I left the state.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
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golfcart
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:18 am

lpickup wrote:
golfcart wrote:
Why offer it then? Nobody expected that trim.
I'll go back to a statement I made earlier (not sure if it was here or somewhere else), but if a $35K car was promised in 2016, in today's dollars that would be $36,707.
I'm not sure you too my comment in context.

I agreed with Sagebrush that the SR plus was the best value my only disagreement was that Tesla actually wanted to sell a lot of $35k models. I don't think they do. I think they made the SR plus such a no brainier that most everyone will get the $2k upgrade. I think the $35k SR is made simply for hype and to fulfill the promise he made years ago but I doubt they make any money on it.
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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:29 am

golfcart wrote: I agreed with Sagebrush that the SR plus was the best value my only disagreement was that Tesla actually wanted to sell a lot of $35k models. I don't think they do. I think they made the SR plus such a no brainier that most everyone will get the $2k upgrade. I think the $35k SR is made simply for hype and to fulfill the promise he made years ago but I doubt they make any money on it.
I totally agree. I think it was a mistake in the first place to make a promise of $35K at some point (at least 2 years) in the future without at least leaving an out for inflation. I am sure they don't want to sell it.

On the other hand, it seems like with everything they bundled in to the SR+ package, they probably wouldn't want to sell that either! I can't see how they would make any more profit on SR+ than they would on SR.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:39 am

lpickup wrote:
golfcart wrote: I agreed with Sagebrush that the SR plus was the best value my only disagreement was that Tesla actually wanted to sell a lot of $35k models. I don't think they do. I think they made the SR plus such a no brainier that most everyone will get the $2k upgrade. I think the $35k SR is made simply for hype and to fulfill the promise he made years ago but I doubt they make any money on it.
I totally agree. I think it was a mistake in the first place to make a promise of $35K at some point (at least 2 years) in the future without at least leaving an out for inflation. I am sure they don't want to sell it.

On the other hand, it seems like with everything they bundled in to the SR+ package, they probably wouldn't want to sell that either! I can't see how they would make any more profit on SR+ than they would on SR.
Sell post upgrades. They can remotely engage cash flow as needed:)

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:20 am

I don't know what all you Californians are complaining about, but I think you need to move up to the 21st century!

I've never used the seat heaters myself, because I remote start the HVAC as I prepare to leave the house/office. The cabin is ready by the time I get into the car. We barely get below 32F in the mornings, you don't save that much energy forgoing the cabin heater.

Not having the heaters to meet the $35k price target was an economic decision that still results in a marketable product - just not for all regions.
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