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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 01, 2019 10:31 am

lorenfb wrote:
mtndrew1 wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:Do you track Nissan and other EV deliveries as well or are only Teslas your passion? What are the numbers like for Nissan deliveries?


I’m old enough to remember when he swore up and down Tesla wouldn’t sell 100k cars a year and couldn’t possibly do any firmware updates beyond infotainment and such because he owns an oscilloscope and definitely knows how these things work.

He’s best ignored.


Your links to the above and specific ECUs (modules) that Tesla has used OTAs to do a complete firmware update or just minor
coding tweaks are? It's highly doubtful you have any concept/understanding of what a firmware update to a vehicle ECU really is.

Anything other than an ad hominem to post?


How about you back up your claims and I will back mine? In fact let's make it worth my time, I'll organize a demo if needed or provide acceptable evidence. I could use a spare LEAF EV and wouldn't you like a Model 3? I can prove that Tesla can even update third party parts firmware like Bosch ESP and has done so many times. Let's see how sure you really are, you seem to run and hide when you need to back your claims or misleading statements.

lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 01, 2019 10:39 am

lorenfb wrote:SoCal has been one of Tesla's biggest domestic markets. During the latter half of 2018, the Marina Del Rey Tesla delivery center at month
end has had large numbers of M3s in the delivery lots and with customers arriving to take deliveries. This hasn't been the case for month
ends for Q1 of 2019. This situation appears to have been repeated for April. So either Tesla has better managed April deliveries over the
last few weeks, or the poor Q1 marginal delivery rate, i.e. a significant demand reduction, has continued. Some may argue that the above
is no more than anecdotal data which can't be extrapolated as indicative of an overall M3 demand decline. Yes, there's some basis to that,
but given the population (10M) of LA County, this market would still be considered a bellwether of vehicle demand. One would expect April
U.S. M3 deliveries to be at least 50% of an ideal monthly total production of 25K - 30K units, exceeding the March U.S. deliveries of 10K.


Hopefully, data from InsideEVs tomorrow will provide some insight. Lately, though, InsideEVs has not been able to provide Tesla data
until a few days after most all other EV data has been posted.


Our estimates show that Tesla delivered some 10,050 Model 3 to U.S. buyers in April 2019. That's slightly down compared to the 10,175 in March, but hugely up compared to the 5,750 we estimated for February and 6,500 we estimated for January and it blows away the year-over-year figure from April 2018 (3,750 Model 3 estimated sales in the U.S.).


And the M3 demand hasn't declined versus Q4 of 2018? And about those MS/MX numbers (total ~ 2K) for April? That's a 24k annual U.S.
run rate for 2019, i.e. 50% of 2018. Another projected loss for Tesla in Q2, right?

InsideEVs needs to use U.S. Q4 of 2018 M3 average deliveries of 20K per month as a comparative baseline and NOT April of 2018
which distorts the demand inference.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F (35C), min discharge (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 25%, temp < 105F

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jlv
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 01, 2019 11:27 am

But we all know that 12/18 US deliveries were higher than normal because of people getting cars before the tax credit halved - deliveries were up 1/3 up over the prior month across the board. And we all know that starting in January deliveries started to Europe.

So to point to the higher year-end numbers as the base and then to point to the Q1 numbers and say "oh look, sales are down" is just distorting the trend.

Frankly, I expect a similar surge in June deliveries as the tax credit halves again.
LEAF '13 SL+Prem (mfg 12/13, leased 4/14, bought 5/17, sold 11/18) 34K mi, AHr 58, SOH 87%
Tesla S 75D (3/17)
Tesla X 100D (12/18)
75K 100% BEV miles since '14
ICE free since '18

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 01, 2019 12:40 pm

BMW sold 12,361 cars in the US in April. That is all cars combined. 2,3,4,5,6,7 series and the I3, I8, X1, and X2

The model 3 almost matched those sales in total last month. The M3 is an EV FYI. A poor selling one supposedly.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 01, 2019 12:42 pm

Crickets Loren......

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 01, 2019 1:27 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:BMW sold 12,361 cars in the US in April. That is all cars combined. 2,3,4,5,6,7 series and the I3, I8, X1, and X2

The model 3 almost matched those sales in total last month. The M3 is an EV FYI. A poor selling one supposedly.


So what! The present issue is Tesla's growth rate (increasing demand) to survive and achieve a level of profitability.
If BMW sells less vehicles and is profitable, they will survive long term to supply the EV market when it becomes
a viable/profitable market.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F (35C), min discharge (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 25%, temp < 105F

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 01, 2019 1:31 pm

lorenfb wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:BMW sold 12,361 cars in the US in April. That is all cars combined. 2,3,4,5,6,7 series and the I3, I8, X1, and X2

The model 3 almost matched those sales in total last month. The M3 is an EV FYI. A poor selling one supposedly.


So what! The present issue is Tesla's growth rate (increasing demand) to survive and achieve a level of profitability.
If BMW sells less vehicles and is profitable, they will survive long term to supply the EV market when it becomes
a viable/profitable market.


Wrong again and Still crickets on my other post. Are you going to put up or shut up?

lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 01, 2019 2:10 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
mtndrew1 wrote:
I’m old enough to remember when he swore up and down Tesla wouldn’t sell 100k cars a year and couldn’t possibly do any firmware updates beyond infotainment and such because he owns an oscilloscope and definitely knows how these things work.

He’s best ignored.


Your links to the above and specific ECUs (modules) that Tesla has used OTAs to do a complete firmware update or just minor
coding tweaks are? It's highly doubtful you have any concept/understanding of what a firmware update to a vehicle ECU really is.

Anything other than an ad hominem to post?

'
They can flash the firmware at the component level, not just coding tweaks. Stop with your old OEM part supplier mentality and constant Tesla trolling which is 95% the reason you come to this site.


OK, let's start with a very basic automotive controller (ECU), an ABS/Traction control unit.

1. Who's the Tesla vendor for the ECU? Surely Telsa doesn't waste engineering resources designing that generic type of
an automotive ECU, right?
2. Whose microcontroller (processor) is being used in the ECU, e.g. STMicro? Are there multiple processors being used,
e.g. for redundancy/backup?
3. What is the word width of the processors, e.g. 32/64 bit?
4. Who has control of the source code? Can Tesla change the source code?
5. Does Tesla have a complete description of the algorithm being for the braking system? Does the design include
a Fast Fourier processor, e.g. Texas Inst, to analyze analog data, e.g. wheel speeds? Can that unique algorithm be changed?
6. Does Tesla have a compiler for the source code?
7. Does the Tesla MCU receive the OTA re-flash file and control the re-flash process? Please describe in detail.
8. Is there a buffer memory in each ECU to store the re-flash file to avoid data transfer problems over the Tesla CAN network
while the re-flash process occurs? Does the ECU have a dedicated processor within the ECU to control the re-flash process?
9. What's the typical re-flash time per ECU?
10. Is the re-flash file stored after the OTA process to be used by the ECU when the vehicle is in the shut-down mode? If so, where is
the re-flash file stored?

Hopefully, you understand the above, right? You can always ask Elon for the answers, surely he knows the details of the OTA process.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F (35C), min discharge (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 25%, temp < 105F

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 01, 2019 3:13 pm

lorenfb wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
Your links to the above and specific ECUs (modules) that Tesla has used OTAs to do a complete firmware update or just minor
coding tweaks are? It's highly doubtful you have any concept/understanding of what a firmware update to a vehicle ECU really is.

Anything other than an ad hominem to post?

'
They can flash the firmware at the component level, not just coding tweaks. Stop with your old OEM part supplier mentality and constant Tesla trolling which is 95% the reason you come to this site.


OK, let's start with a very basic automotive controller (ECU), an ABS/Traction control unit.

1. Who's the Tesla vendor for the ECU? Surely Telsa doesn't waste engineering resources designing that generic type of
an automotive ECU, right?
2. Whose microcontroller (processor) is being used in the ECU, e.g. STMicro? Are there multiple processors being used,
e.g. for redundancy/backup?
3. What is the word width of the processors, e.g. 32/64 bit?
4. Who has control of the source code? Can Tesla change the source code?
5. Does Tesla have a complete description of the algorithm being for the braking system? Does the design include
a Fast Fourier processor, e.g. Texas Inst, to analyze analog data, e.g. wheel speeds? Can that unique algorithm be changed?
6. Does Tesla have a compiler for the source code?
7. Does the Tesla MCU receive the OTA re-flash file and control the re-flash process? Please describe in detail.
8. Is there a buffer memory in each ECU to store the re-flash file to avoid data transfer problems over the Tesla CAN network
while the re-flash process occurs? Does the ECU have a dedicated processor within the ECU to control the re-flash process?
9. What's the typical re-flash time per ECU?
10. Is the re-flash file stored after the OTA process to be used by the ECU when the vehicle is in the shut-down mode? If so, where is
the re-flash file stored?

Hopefully, you understand the above, right? You can always ask Elon for the answers, surely he knows the details of the OTA process.


I'm not going to address every question but yes it works as you describe. Do you want me to explain it all so you can feel comfortable or not ? Sorry, you claim it is not possible and I understand all of the above and claim it is, it is a yes/no. I don't need to ask Elon I will show you.Take the bet or not but stick to it once you do. It's clear to me you don't know the real answer and you are trying to assess your exposure. Stop posting guesses or back it up because I will.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu May 02, 2019 1:13 pm

lorenfb wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:BMW sold 12,361 cars in the US in April. That is all cars combined. 2,3,4,5,6,7 series and the I3, I8, X1, and X2

The model 3 almost matched those sales in total last month. The M3 is an EV FYI. A poor selling one supposedly.


So what! The present issue is Tesla's growth rate (increasing demand) to survive and achieve a level of profitability.
If BMW sells less vehicles and is profitable, they will survive long term to supply the EV market when it becomes
a viable/profitable market.


Ummmm....they've already ticked the "survive" and "achieved profitability" boxes. While it's not as high as they'd prefer, the profit margin on the Model 3, at the volumes they are selling today, is about 20%. Much better than the competition.

But it has to be, not because there is an issue with survivability, but because Tesla's objective is to grow the company even more, and to do that requires significant cash flow. So while it is important to grow Model 3, it's not required for the reasons you stated.
...Lance

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