lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri May 17, 2019 8:58 pm

WetEV wrote:
lorenfb wrote:Furthermore, why is that no OEM automotive manufacturer, e.g. GM or Toyota both world automotive market leaders, hasn't forecasted a huge BEV growth in the next few years? With BEVs priced over $30K, the assumed exponential growth won't happen. Most consumers consider a BEV as an expensive toy.


The growth has been exponential.

BEVs are getting better. Less limited, less of a "toy".

BEVs are diversifying. More models, more choices.

BEVs are getting cheaper.

This may or may not bail out Tesla. Tesla's big problem is that they need to grow up. Starting in the corner office.


The M3 is a very well designed BEV with a good basic market appeal in the market segment it addresses. My issue is with the growth
in the market segment it's presently positioned for, i.e. the $40K+ market. Yes, there's growth there, but not the exponential growth
some indicate.
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WetEV
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat May 18, 2019 7:43 am

lorenfb wrote:The M3 is a very well designed BEV with a good basic market appeal in the market segment it addresses. My issue is with the growth in the market segment it's presently positioned for, i.e. the $40K+ market. Yes, there's growth there, but not the exponential growth
some indicate.


The auto market has a distribution of prices. To reach the whole market a distribution of BEVs is needed as well. So your issue has a point.

Exponential growth, sales doubling ever 3 years or so, is the history of the BEV market. The high end is profitable now, as BEVs have advantages over ICEs for performance and for quiet. The mid-range will need lower prices, $35k, $30k, $25k, $20k. I don't expect Tesla to play well in lower price bounds. No gee wiz doors and door handles. Simple, reliable and cheap is needed. And then there is the market for $15k cars. To continue exponential growth to the mid point of the auto market will require a selling price (not MSRP) below $25k, adjusted for inflation.
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lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat May 18, 2019 7:51 am

WetEV wrote: The high end is profitable now, as BEVs


?????
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat May 18, 2019 8:12 am

lorenfb wrote:
WetEV wrote: The high end is profitable now, as BEVs


?????


Tesla has made money on Model S, even after all the accounting tricks are removed.

Model X is and was a disaster.

Model 3?? Not yet, maybe someday, maybe never. Didn't help that the assembly line had to be completely redone. The factory in a tent is ... amusing.
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Valdemar
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat May 18, 2019 2:30 pm

It's a bit premature to talk about exponential growth when EV sales numbers stay below noise levels in the large scheme of things. For all I know the perceived exponential growth can be an anomaly.
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WetEV
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat May 18, 2019 2:52 pm

Valdemar wrote:It's a bit premature to talk about exponential growth when EV sales numbers stay below noise levels in the large scheme of things. For all I know the perceived exponential growth can be an anomaly.


Wrong concern. Observed growth is almost certainly best explained by exponential.

Yet there is a valid concern. Exponential growth always ends.

A little math should convince you of that. Put one grain of rice on a square of a chessboard, two on the next square, four and the next, and so on. How much rice is on the last square?

2^64 grains.

There is about 60,000 grains of rice in a kilogram. (more or less depending on type of rice)

1000 kg in a metric ton.

Your answer is____?

About 490 million metric tons of rice was consumed worldwide last year. Compare.

EV growth might continue until it replaces most of the ICEs. Or might stop at at less.
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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun May 19, 2019 8:36 am

Based on sales numbers of the 3 VS all other EVs then all EVs are doomed because other auto makers are not making money on EVs and other EVs are not any cheaper when compared to the base 3. This entire debate is senseless, all of them need to lower costs to be profitable long term not just Tesla and Tesla is far ahead in economies of scale and mfg to do that. Not to mention if they execute well their battery costs will be headed down far faster than anyone. If Tesla can't so it others have little chance and those companies are baking in losses presently. This is not a Tesla issue it's an industry issue and Tesla is ahead in every aspect, traditional auto makers are NOT poised to make volume numbers of Evs with a profit they are set up to make ICE cars and EVs at a loss. Unless traditional makers do massive investment and EVs keep selling then they will be doomed. If EV costs can't be lowered then don't expect any affordable EVs.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun May 19, 2019 10:12 am

EVDRIVER wrote:Based on sales numbers of the 3 VS all other EVs then all EVs are doomed because other auto makers are not making money on EVs and other EVs are not any cheaper when compared to the base 3. This entire debate is senseless, all of them need to lower costs to be profitable long term not just Tesla and Tesla is far ahead in economies of scale and mfg to do that. Not to mention if they execute well their battery costs will be headed down far faster than anyone. If Tesla can't so it others have little chance and those companies are baking in losses presently. This is not a Tesla issue it's an industry issue and Tesla is ahead in every aspect, traditional auto makers are NOT poised to make volume numbers of Evs with a profit they are set up to make ICE cars and EVs at a loss. Unless traditional makers do massive investment and EVs keep selling then they will be doomed. If EV costs can't be lowered then don't expect any affordable EVs.


Nissan has claimed to be making money on the LEAF.

Tesla was far ahead on charging networks. EA has reduced that distance.

Tesla is in a struggle to survive. Ahead? Sure. But missteps are likely fatal.
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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun May 19, 2019 10:16 am

WetEV wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:Based on sales numbers of the 3 VS all other EVs then all EVs are doomed because other auto makers are not making money on EVs and other EVs are not any cheaper when compared to the base 3. This entire debate is senseless, all of them need to lower costs to be profitable long term not just Tesla and Tesla is far ahead in economies of scale and mfg to do that. Not to mention if they execute well their battery costs will be headed down far faster than anyone. If Tesla can't so it others have little chance and those companies are baking in losses presently. This is not a Tesla issue it's an industry issue and Tesla is ahead in every aspect, traditional auto makers are NOT poised to make volume numbers of Evs with a profit they are set up to make ICE cars and EVs at a loss. Unless traditional makers do massive investment and EVs keep selling then they will be doomed. If EV costs can't be lowered then don't expect any affordable EVs.


Nissan has claimed to be making money on the LEAF.

Tesla was far ahead on charging networks. EA has reduced that distance.

Tesla is in a struggle to survive. Ahead? Sure. But missteps are likely fatal.


Nissan is an honest company that always tells the truth even if it makes them look bad. LOL

WetEV
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun May 19, 2019 10:26 am

EVDRIVER wrote:
WetEV wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:Based on sales numbers of the 3 VS all other EVs then all EVs are doomed because other auto makers are not making money on EVs and other EVs are not any cheaper when compared to the base 3. This entire debate is senseless, all of them need to lower costs to be profitable long term not just Tesla and Tesla is far ahead in economies of scale and mfg to do that. Not to mention if they execute well their battery costs will be headed down far faster than anyone. If Tesla can't so it others have little chance and those companies are baking in losses presently. This is not a Tesla issue it's an industry issue and Tesla is ahead in every aspect, traditional auto makers are NOT poised to make volume numbers of Evs with a profit they are set up to make ICE cars and EVs at a loss. Unless traditional makers do massive investment and EVs keep selling then they will be doomed. If EV costs can't be lowered then don't expect any affordable EVs.


Nissan has claimed to be making money on the LEAF.

Tesla was far ahead on charging networks. EA has reduced that distance.

Tesla is in a struggle to survive. Ahead? Sure. But missteps are likely fatal.


Nissan is an honest company that always tells the truth even if it makes them look bad. LOL


Elon Musk's tweets are always accurate.
WetEV
#49
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