Leaf15
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun May 19, 2019 12:44 pm

We can all thank to Tesla for figuring out the market size for >$40 EVs. It is saturated with about 200,000 EV sold after 3 years of wait. ~ 80,000 annual rate going forward. Any other EV offerings in this price range will eat into this small market share, as there is no observable break through in EV consumption. In part, Tesla is responsible for the inhibiting expansion by forcing expensive model down the throat of the waiting list folks initially, bad publicity, and reenforced perception of Tesla EV are way too expensive. Fading out EV Rebates are also painful. Will see how it all would unravel, it would not be too long of a wait. I think the complete phase out of EV Rebates would be the key development for everyone to observe.

2020 will be the real test for Tesla. The way rebate is designed - it is a double edge sword: it helps the pioneers, but if they failed to come up with economy of scale and be profitable - there is no way they would survive the price pressure from other EV offerings with huge rebate advantage.
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lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun May 19, 2019 1:36 pm

Leaf15 wrote:We can all thank to Tesla for figuring out the market size for >$40 EVs. It is saturated with about 200,000 EV sold after 3 years of wait. ~ 80,000 annual rate going forward. Any other EV offerings in this price range will eat into this small market share, as there is no observable break through in EV consumption. In part, Tesla is responsible for the inhibiting expansion by forcing expensive model down the throat of the waiting list folks initially, bad publicity, and reenforced perception of Tesla EV are way too expensive. Fading out EV Rebates are also painful. Will see how it all would unravel, it would not be too long of a wait. I think the complete phase out of EV Rebates would be the key development for everyone to observe.

2020 will be the real test for Tesla. The way rebate is designed - it is a double edge sword: it helps the pioneers, but if they failed to come up with economy of scale and be profitable - there is no way they would survive the price pressure from other EV offerings with huge rebate advantage.


Good summary.
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SalisburySam
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun May 19, 2019 2:34 pm

lorenfb wrote:
Leaf15 wrote:We can all thank to Tesla for figuring out the market size for >$40 EVs. It is saturated with about 200,000 EV sold after 3 years of wait. ~ 80,000 annual rate going forward. Any other EV offerings in this price range will eat into this small market share, as there is no observable break through in EV consumption. In part, Tesla is responsible for the inhibiting expansion by forcing expensive model down the throat of the waiting list folks initially, bad publicity, and reenforced perception of Tesla EV are way too expensive. Fading out EV Rebates are also painful. Will see how it all would unravel, it would not be too long of a wait. I think the complete phase out of EV Rebates would be the key development for everyone to observe.

2020 will be the real test for Tesla. The way rebate is designed - it is a double edge sword: it helps the pioneers, but if they failed to come up with economy of scale and be profitable - there is no way they would survive the price pressure from other EV offerings with huge rebate advantage.


Good summary.

Almost. I don’t think anyone, and certainly not me, had anything like “...forcing expensive model down the throat of the waiting list folks...”. It is true that only the largest-size battery model was initially available but even then the options were several. After 7 years of LEAF range anxiety I only wanted the longest range I could get anyway. And it was later on that the more expensive models with all-wheel drive and then a performance version were offered followed by the mid-range, and then the short range. But that hardly qualifies, in my book, as forcing anything. I waited 22 months for my 2012 LEAF, I could have waited longer for my Model 3 if I had really not wanted the long-range rear-wheel drive version. No coercion, no forcing, no ankle-grabbing, no turn-your-head-to-the-right-and-coughing, pretty easy really.
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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun May 19, 2019 2:42 pm

SalisburySam wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
Leaf15 wrote:We can all thank to Tesla for figuring out the market size for >$40 EVs. It is saturated with about 200,000 EV sold after 3 years of wait. ~ 80,000 annual rate going forward. Any other EV offerings in this price range will eat into this small market share, as there is no observable break through in EV consumption. In part, Tesla is responsible for the inhibiting expansion by forcing expensive model down the throat of the waiting list folks initially, bad publicity, and reenforced perception of Tesla EV are way too expensive. Fading out EV Rebates are also painful. Will see how it all would unravel, it would not be too long of a wait. I think the complete phase out of EV Rebates would be the key development for everyone to observe.

2020 will be the real test for Tesla. The way rebate is designed - it is a double edge sword: it helps the pioneers, but if they failed to come up with economy of scale and be profitable - there is no way they would survive the price pressure from other EV offerings with huge rebate advantage.


Good summary.

Almost. I don’t think anyone, and certainly not me, had anything like “...forcing expensive model down the throat of the waiting list folks...”. It is true that only the largest-size battery model was initially available but even then the options were several. After 7 years of LEAF range anxiety I only wanted the longest range I could get anyway. And it was later on that the more expensive models with all-wheel drive and then a performance version were offered followed by the mid-range, and then the short range. But that hardly qualifies, in my book, as forcing anything. I waited 22 months for my 2012 LEAF, I could have waited longer for my Model 3 if I had really not wanted the long-range rear-wheel drive version. No coercion, no forcing, no ankle-grabbing, no turn-your-head-to-the-right-and-coughing, pretty easy really.


Accurate summary.

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun May 19, 2019 2:43 pm

lorenfb wrote:
Leaf15 wrote:We can all thank to Tesla for figuring out the market size for >$40 EVs. It is saturated with about 200,000 EV sold after 3 years of wait. ~ 80,000 annual rate going forward. Any other EV offerings in this price range will eat into this small market share, as there is no observable break through in EV consumption. In part, Tesla is responsible for the inhibiting expansion by forcing expensive model down the throat of the waiting list folks initially, bad publicity, and reenforced perception of Tesla EV are way too expensive. Fading out EV Rebates are also painful. Will see how it all would unravel, it would not be too long of a wait. I think the complete phase out of EV Rebates would be the key development for everyone to observe.

2020 will be the real test for Tesla. The way rebate is designed - it is a double edge sword: it helps the pioneers, but if they failed to come up with economy of scale and be profitable - there is no way they would survive the price pressure from other EV offerings with huge rebate advantage.


Good summary.


Says a non-owner.

Leaf15
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun May 19, 2019 4:18 pm

SalisburySam wrote:Almost. I don’t think anyone, and certainly not me, had anything like “...forcing expensive model down the throat of the waiting list folks...”
It was listed as partially detrimental though. You are correct from your point of view and it was about %50 reservation holders who either wanted LR or pulled the trigger for a bit more expensive models. Of course, folks who were waiting to SR (me included) and realized it is not an option (to get it with full rebate) just cancelled the reservations. Perhaps the correct would be to use "tried to force more expensive models to folks waiting for SR". But overall it is not very important.

The very unexpected "WTF" moment came later, when Tesla announced 35K SR and SR+ versions availability and pretty much no one ordered. At this point, even I was surprised, but it looks like ~200,000 SR folks who cancelled moved on to something else completely, and most likely it was not an EV. I do not think they expected this at Tesla either. This was gross miscalculation and huge sale opportunities were lost.
Last edited by Leaf15 on Mon May 20, 2019 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Mon May 20, 2019 6:02 pm

Tesla just released self-service maintenance instructions. Check your owner's manual. The most useful one being replacing the cabin air filters. Saves me from looking for a Chilton's.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 21, 2019 7:32 am

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:Tesla just released self-service maintenance instructions.
https://www.tesla.com/support/do-it-yourself-model-3
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mtndrew1
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 21, 2019 10:38 am

Leaf15 wrote:
SalisburySam wrote:Almost. I don’t think anyone, and certainly not me, had anything like “...forcing expensive model down the throat of the waiting list folks...”
It was listed as partially detrimental though. You are correct from your point of view and it was about %50 reservation holders who either wanted LR or pulled the trigger for a bit more expensive models. Of course, folks who were waiting to SR (me included) and realized it is not an option (to get it with full rebate) just cancelled the reservations. Perhaps the correct would be to use "tried to force more expensive models to folks waiting for SR". But overall it is not very important.

The very unexpected "WTF" moment came later, when Tesla announced 35K SR and SR+ versions availability and pretty much no one ordered. At this point, even I was surprised, but it looks like ~200,000 SR folks who cancelled moved on to something else completely, and most likely it was not an EV. I do not think they expected this at Tesla either. This was gross miscalculation and huge sale opportunities were lost.


I don’t think there were anywhere near 200k SR line waiters. Global reservations were about 400k cars in 2016, and I think it should be safe to assume about half of those reservations were in the US.

In 2017 and 2018 (combined) Tesla sold 141,500 Model 3s in the US, so even with no attrition, fewer than 60k would be waiting for SR. I would guess at least 20% of reservation holders dropped out between 2016 and 2018 leaving fewer than 40k possible pending reservation holders in the US at the beginning of 2019.

In addition, the demand for SR+ seems to be robust based on message board traffic. The cars disappear from inventory immediately (you can now browse inventory cars on Tesla’s website). Of course few want the true $35k model given the value position of the SR+, so no surprise there. I assume some percentage of the remaining line waiters ended up with SR/+ at that car’s debut.
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webb14leafs
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 21, 2019 11:05 am

With regard to demand - I think we're all unaware of how uninformed the general public is on EVs in general and especially Teslas. I've talked to so many people that you would think would be somewhat familiar EVs, but they just have no idea. They love the model 3, but simply dismiss the idea of an EV as unrealistic for them and their driving habits. Tesla really needs to do some marketing to penetrate this market bubble.

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