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jlv
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 22, 2019 7:03 am

MotorTrend:
https://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-3/2018/tesla-model-3-vs-bmw-330i-vs-genesis-g70-comparison-test/
Tesla Model 3 vs. BMW 330i vs. Genesis G70 Comparison: Who Builds the Best Compact Luxury Sedan?
The new 2019 BMW 3 Series goes up against our Car of the Year and the upstart electric Tesla

That electric drivetrain also provides the framework for the rest of this paradigm shift. The near-silent, rocket-like acceleration is only the first step. On our test runs out in the real world, one-pedal driving quickly became a matter of course. Lift off the accelerator, and regen instantly begins to slow the car. Time it right, and you can navigate through even heavy traffic with only an occasional feathering of the brake pedal. Walton was smitten. "Driving feels new and novel again. The way it re-introduces driving enthusiasm to a driving enthusiast is remarkable."

While both the BMW and Genesis also offer adaptive cruise control, the Tesla's version was a revelation. The drivetrain's instant power and regen meant the Model 3 had no problem maintaining a consistent distance, making micro-fast adjustments on the fly as the speed of traffic ebbed and flowed. This precision was in stark contrast to the response of the turbo-fours in both the 330i and G70, whose slow reaction times routinely left plenty of room for another car to jump in.
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Tesla S 75D (3/17)
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75K 100% BEV miles since '14
ICE free since '18

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jlv
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 22, 2019 7:07 am


Click the "Show All" on the comparison chart and scroll down to "Recommended Fuel: 110-volt, 220-volt electricity". :lol:


On the flip side, the one other interesting comment: "If this is 'Premium,' I'd hate to see the standard interior."
LEAF '13 SL+Prem (mfg 12/13, leased 4/14, bought 5/17, sold 11/18) 34K mi, AHr 58, SOH 87%
Tesla S 75D (3/17)
Tesla X 100D (12/18)
75K 100% BEV miles since '14
ICE free since '18

webb14leafs
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 22, 2019 7:33 am

GRA wrote:
lpickup wrote:
lorenfb wrote:And you have a crystal ball that can forecast exponential growth, right?

Actually, it's more like "hockey stick" growth, but exponential will be a suitable proxy.

My crystal ball? Battery costs. Battery costs have been falling at a very consistent 19% per year, and is forecast to continue this trend. Maybe you have a reason to believe this will not be the case, but with all the research going on in the battery world, I don't really see an end to this trend in the next 5 years.

Now so far, the cost savings on the battery side have not transitioned directly to cost savings on the vehicle. This is because automakers have focused on adding larger format batteries to address a perceived range limitation. But there have been significant increases in range over the past 8 years, while keeping the price constant. I believe that once we hit an affordable 300 mile (maybe 350) EV, that there will be little reason to keep adding more battery, and instead we will see a shift towards making vehicles more affordable. And eventually there will be a crossover point where the unsubsidized cost of an EV will be less than an equivalent ICE.

And at that point, to the buying public, it simply won't matter whether it's an EV or an ICE. That's the problem I have with people that are saying this or that about "EV demand". Most people are sticker-price focused. They don't necessarily care what's under the hood. They only care about what the sticker says. And the day the sticker on an EV is less than the sticker on an ICE, they are going to get the EV. At this point it stops being a ramp and turns a sharp corner.

Yes, EVs have to become available in the form factors they want. And yes, there will need to be education of the masses about how and where to charge their cars. But the growing number of EV owners are going to be the teachers. And the more EVs that people see on the road, the more people are going to be willing to ask their friends, neighbors and co-workers about them.

If you think any part of this "crystal ball" is wrong, let me know, but you'll be disagreeing with the technology adoption curve that has been repeated throughout history, so it's a tough argument to make. About the only legitimate difference of opinion we can have is the timescale. Yes, with falling battery prices, the percentage of the cost of the battery to the vehicle becomes smaller, so the gains in vehicle price become less significant. But I don't think this is going to take more than another 4-5 years. We now have 3 mass produces vehicles with ranges over 300 miles, with several more knocking on the door at 250 (unfortunately in somewhat limited quantities). 2020 should be a big year in terms of new EV releases. Once we get those vehicles with 300 miles on the market, we can start the process of driving the costs down.

I agree with almost all of this, except the bolded section. When people say they want/need a 300+ mile car, what they mean by that isn't a 300 or 350 mile BEV, before all the subtractions you need to know about and allow for as regards speed, climate, and degradation, but a 300 or 350 mile range like an ICE. Now, if you were to say 300 or 350 miles including all of the above at the end of the car's life, I'd agree with you, but we all know that requires a range at least 1/3rd and maybe 1/2 or more greater than the nominal range when new. The average age of the fleet is I believe now up to 11.8 years, so EoL battery range should be for at least 12 and probably 15 or 20 years.

I've done this calc for my own requirements. I need a car for roadtrips, and keep them until they no longer function (current car is 16 y.o. and still going strong). I've decided that for a BEV to be reasonably useful and cost-effective for me, at a minimum I want to be able to drive from home to Lee Vininga typical weekend trip, without recharging, a distance of 207 miles on freeway and highway, and which requires climbing from about 100 ft. sea level over 9,941 ft. Tioga Pass 193 miles out before descending 14 miles and 3,160 feet to Lee Vining at 6,780 ft., any time of the year and in any conditions when the road's open (which can range from late April to late Nov., but is usually less). I want to be able to do it for at least 12 years and prefer longer, jut as I prefer longer range and faster recharging. I want to be able to do it driving just as I do in my ICE,at the same speeds while freely using heat/AC as desired, and with at least a 30 mile reserve under the same conditions. Having played around with EV tripplanner, there's not a single BEV (including the longest-ranged Teslas) now available that can meet those requirements for that length of time, although some of them can do the trip for part of the time and/or under more restrictive conditions. I've been fairly interested in the)a Kia Niro, but its ability to make the trip is questionable even when new, and would be impossible with degradation. That QCs will eventually be built along the way is true, but irrelevant to my needs, which include time limitations as well as flexibility.

By comparison, my 16 y.o. ICE can still do the trip to Lee Vining and return un-refueled basically free of care, as it has essentially the same range as when it was new, and should I need to refuel it due to unusual circumstances I can do so lots of places in no more time than it takes to use the bathroom. I paid something over $24k cash for it out the door, including TTL, so BEVs have a long way to go before they can meet the same value/capability, even if QCing gets cheaper than gas, and even with the current high gas prices in California that's at best a marginal cost advantage over my 28-30 mpg real world hwy ICE, and still at a disadvantage compared to a moderately-high mpg HEV.

And that's just for my basic weekend trip, not the extended road trips that I want to be able to take again in a ZEV, which require even more range and even faster charging

So, while I agree with you that prices will only start to drop when the range is adequate, how much range will be adequate depends heavily on extending the guaranteed, no worries EoL range of BEVs, and that currently requires such large, heavy and expensive battery packs that I don't see the cross-over point happening until sometime beyond the 4-5 years you suggest.


I would expect anyone interested in an EV would be willing to slightly inconvenience themselves out of interest in the technology and/or reducing environmental impact.

Any Tesla, the Chevy Bolt and Nissan+ could easily fit your need with a 20 minute charging stop on the uphill portion of your drive. It's likely no charging would be needed on the return drive.

lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 22, 2019 8:05 am

webb14leafs wrote:
GRA wrote:
lpickup wrote:Actually, it's more like "hockey stick" growth, but exponential will be a suitable proxy.

My crystal ball? Battery costs. Battery costs have been falling at a very consistent 19% per year, and is forecast to continue this trend. Maybe you have a reason to believe this will not be the case, but with all the research going on in the battery world, I don't really see an end to this trend in the next 5 years.

Now so far, the cost savings on the battery side have not transitioned directly to cost savings on the vehicle. This is because automakers have focused on adding larger format batteries to address a perceived range limitation. But there have been significant increases in range over the past 8 years, while keeping the price constant. I believe that once we hit an affordable 300 mile (maybe 350) EV, that there will be little reason to keep adding more battery, and instead we will see a shift towards making vehicles more affordable. And eventually there will be a crossover point where the unsubsidized cost of an EV will be less than an equivalent ICE.

And at that point, to the buying public, it simply won't matter whether it's an EV or an ICE. That's the problem I have with people that are saying this or that about "EV demand". Most people are sticker-price focused. They don't necessarily care what's under the hood. They only care about what the sticker says. And the day the sticker on an EV is less than the sticker on an ICE, they are going to get the EV. At this point it stops being a ramp and turns a sharp corner.

Yes, EVs have to become available in the form factors they want. And yes, there will need to be education of the masses about how and where to charge their cars. But the growing number of EV owners are going to be the teachers. And the more EVs that people see on the road, the more people are going to be willing to ask their friends, neighbors and co-workers about them.

If you think any part of this "crystal ball" is wrong, let me know, but you'll be disagreeing with the technology adoption curve that has been repeated throughout history, so it's a tough argument to make. About the only legitimate difference of opinion we can have is the timescale. Yes, with falling battery prices, the percentage of the cost of the battery to the vehicle becomes smaller, so the gains in vehicle price become less significant. But I don't think this is going to take more than another 4-5 years. We now have 3 mass produces vehicles with ranges over 300 miles, with several more knocking on the door at 250 (unfortunately in somewhat limited quantities). 2020 should be a big year in terms of new EV releases. Once we get those vehicles with 300 miles on the market, we can start the process of driving the costs down.

I agree with almost all of this, except the bolded section. When people say they want/need a 300+ mile car, what they mean by that isn't a 300 or 350 mile BEV, before all the subtractions you need to know about and allow for as regards speed, climate, and degradation, but a 300 or 350 mile range like an ICE. Now, if you were to say 300 or 350 miles including all of the above at the end of the car's life, I'd agree with you, but we all know that requires a range at least 1/3rd and maybe 1/2 or more greater than the nominal range when new. The average age of the fleet is I believe now up to 11.8 years, so EoL battery range should be for at least 12 and probably 15 or 20 years.

I've done this calc for my own requirements. I need a car for roadtrips, and keep them until they no longer function (current car is 16 y.o. and still going strong). I've decided that for a BEV to be reasonably useful and cost-effective for me, at a minimum I want to be able to drive from home to Lee Vininga typical weekend trip, without recharging, a distance of 207 miles on freeway and highway, and which requires climbing from about 100 ft. sea level over 9,941 ft. Tioga Pass 193 miles out before descending 14 miles and 3,160 feet to Lee Vining at 6,780 ft., any time of the year and in any conditions when the road's open (which can range from late April to late Nov., but is usually less). I want to be able to do it for at least 12 years and prefer longer, jut as I prefer longer range and faster recharging. I want to be able to do it driving just as I do in my ICE,at the same speeds while freely using heat/AC as desired, and with at least a 30 mile reserve under the same conditions. Having played around with EV tripplanner, there's not a single BEV (including the longest-ranged Teslas) now available that can meet those requirements for that length of time, although some of them can do the trip for part of the time and/or under more restrictive conditions. I've been fairly interested in the)a Kia Niro, but its ability to make the trip is questionable even when new, and would be impossible with degradation. That QCs will eventually be built along the way is true, but irrelevant to my needs, which include time limitations as well as flexibility.

By comparison, my 16 y.o. ICE can still do the trip to Lee Vining and return un-refueled basically free of care, as it has essentially the same range as when it was new, and should I need to refuel it due to unusual circumstances I can do so lots of places in no more time than it takes to use the bathroom. I paid something over $24k cash for it out the door, including TTL, so BEVs have a long way to go before they can meet the same value/capability, even if QCing gets cheaper than gas, and even with the current high gas prices in California that's at best a marginal cost advantage over my 28-30 mpg real world hwy ICE, and still at a disadvantage compared to a moderately-high mpg HEV.

And that's just for my basic weekend trip, not the extended road trips that I want to be able to take again in a ZEV, which require even more range and even faster charging

So, while I agree with you that prices will only start to drop when the range is adequate, how much range will be adequate depends heavily on extending the guaranteed, no worries EoL range of BEVs, and that currently requires such large, heavy and expensive battery packs that I don't see the cross-over point happening until sometime beyond the 4-5 years you suggest.


I would expect anyone interested in an EV would be willing to slightly inconvenience themselves out of interest in the technology and/or reducing environmental impact.

Any Tesla, the Chevy Bolt and Nissan+ could easily fit your need with a 20 minute charging stop on the uphill portion of your drive. It's likely no charging would be needed on the return drive.


Sorry, most consumers appear to not have those same perceptions of EVs. Notwithstanding the 2018 Q4 M3 sales anomaly, the EV market
growth will continue to be basically anemic for at least 5+ years.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F (35C), min discharge (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 25%, temp < 105F

webb14leafs
Posts: 248
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 22, 2019 8:16 am

lorenfb wrote:
Notwithstanding the 2018 Q4 M3 sales anomaly, the EV market growth will continue to be basically anemic for at least 5+ years.


That's a pretty ridiculous comment. Every carmaker and every market analyst on the planet disagrees with you.

lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 22, 2019 8:29 am

webb14leafs wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
Notwithstanding the 2018 Q4 M3 sales anomaly, the EV market growth will continue to be basically anemic for at least 5+ years.


That's a pretty ridiculous comment. Every carmaker and every market analyst on the planet disagrees with you.


Really? They've all started scaling back production of ICEVs and each has forecasted 200-300K volumes starting next year,
to be followed by 500K - 1M by 2024, right? Yes, they perceive a need to develop EVs and produce volumes that meet
the realistic demand.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F (35C), min discharge (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 25%, temp < 105F

webb14leafs
Posts: 248
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:43 am
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 22, 2019 9:15 am

lorenfb wrote:
webb14leafs wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
Notwithstanding the 2018 Q4 M3 sales anomaly, the EV market growth will continue to be basically anemic for at least 5+ years.


That's a pretty ridiculous comment. Every carmaker and every market analyst on the planet disagrees with you.


Really? They've all started scaling back production of ICEVs.


Okay. This is the last time I'm responding to you because you apparently just make stuff up as you go. How can you say all carmakers are scaling back when several are just now releasing their first EV models, and are introducing more in the coming months. Again, ridiculous.

lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 22, 2019 12:44 pm

webb14leafs wrote:
That's a pretty ridiculous comment. Every carmaker and every market analyst on the planet disagrees with you.

Really? They've all started scaling back production of ICEVs.

Okay. This is the last time I'm responding to you because you apparently just make stuff up as you go. How can you say all carmakers are scaling back when several are just now releasing their first EV models, and are introducing more in the coming months. Again, ridiculous.


lorenfb wrote:Sorry you didn't understand what was written. Most was sarcasm. Please re-read.


To clarify what was written:

There was a need in the early 2000s in search of a product, i.e. a mobile device that could not only provide cell communications, but also
internet access, a camera, and music storage. The product that fulfilled that need was the iPhone. Presently, the EV is a product in search
of a need. The majority of consumers presently don't perceive any great need that an EV can provide versus an ICEV. Given that,
the sales growth of EVs will not significantly displace sales of ICEVs.

As an example, the Bolt is very fine BEV, but with some rather insignificant/minor negatives. But given that its initial forecast of 30K units
was never achieved and its present sales are lackluster, ICEV manufactures mostly view that as a near term marginal growth rate for EVs.
The same exists for the acceptance rate of the latest Leafs with the range issue somewhat minimized. Also, with regard to the M3 and
its 2019 YTD sales, most ICEV OEMs probably consider that BEV sales have somewhat plateaued, and thus have committed to conservative
late 2019 & 2020 production forecasts.
Last edited by lorenfb on Wed May 22, 2019 7:25 pm, edited 4 times in total.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F (35C), min discharge (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 25%, temp < 105F

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 22, 2019 1:13 pm

lpickup wrote:
lorenfb wrote:And you have a crystal ball that can forecast exponential growth, right?


Actually, it's more like "hockey stick" growth, but exponential will be a suitable proxy.

My crystal ball? Battery costs. Battery costs have been falling at a very consistent 19% per year, and is forecast to continue this trend. Maybe you have a reason to believe this will not be the case, but with all the research going on in the battery world, I don't really see an end to this trend in the next 5 years.

Now so far, the cost savings on the battery side have not transitioned directly to cost savings on the vehicle. This is because automakers have focused on adding larger format batteries to address a perceived range limitation. But there have been significant increases in range over the past 8 years, while keeping the price constant. I believe that once we hit an affordable 300 mile (maybe 350) EV, that there will be little reason to keep adding more battery, and instead we will see a shift towards making vehicles more affordable. And eventually there will be a crossover point where the unsubsidized cost of an EV will be less than an equivalent ICE.

And at that point, to the buying public, it simply won't matter whether it's an EV or an ICE. That's the problem I have with people that are saying this or that about "EV demand". Most people are sticker-price focused. They don't necessarily care what's under the hood. They only care about what the sticker says. And the day the sticker on an EV is less than the sticker on an ICE, they are going to get the EV. At this point it stops being a ramp and turns a sharp corner.

Yes, EVs have to become available in the form factors they want. And yes, there will need to be education of the masses about how and where to charge their cars. But the growing number of EV owners are going to be the teachers. And the more EVs that people see on the road, the more people are going to be willing to ask their friends, neighbors and co-workers about them.

If you think any part of this "crystal ball" is wrong, let me know, but you'll be disagreeing with the technology adoption curve that has been repeated throughout history, so it's a tough argument to make. About the only legitimate difference of opinion we can have is the timescale. Yes, with falling battery prices, the percentage of the cost of the battery to the vehicle becomes smaller, so the gains in vehicle price become less significant. But I don't think this is going to take more than another 4-5 years. We now have 3 mass produces vehicles with ranges over 300 miles, with several more knocking on the door at 250 (unfortunately in somewhat limited quantities). 2020 should be a big year in terms of new EV releases. Once we get those vehicles with 300 miles on the market, we can start the process of driving the costs down.


Since lorenfb's looking for a crystal ball, how about hard data? https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/upload ... -1Q-19.pdf

It kinda mimics Norway's EV adoption doesn't it?

Edit: The relevant graph is on page 2.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
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lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed May 22, 2019 6:39 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
lpickup wrote:
lorenfb wrote:And you have a crystal ball that can forecast exponential growth, right?


Actually, it's more like "hockey stick" growth, but exponential will be a suitable proxy.

My crystal ball? Battery costs. Battery costs have been falling at a very consistent 19% per year, and is forecast to continue this trend. Maybe you have a reason to believe this will not be the case, but with all the research going on in the battery world, I don't really see an end to this trend in the next 5 years.

Now so far, the cost savings on the battery side have not transitioned directly to cost savings on the vehicle. This is because automakers have focused on adding larger format batteries to address a perceived range limitation. But there have been significant increases in range over the past 8 years, while keeping the price constant. I believe that once we hit an affordable 300 mile (maybe 350) EV, that there will be little reason to keep adding more battery, and instead we will see a shift towards making vehicles more affordable. And eventually there will be a crossover point where the unsubsidized cost of an EV will be less than an equivalent ICE.

And at that point, to the buying public, it simply won't matter whether it's an EV or an ICE. That's the problem I have with people that are saying this or that about "EV demand". Most people are sticker-price focused. They don't necessarily care what's under the hood. They only care about what the sticker says. And the day the sticker on an EV is less than the sticker on an ICE, they are going to get the EV. At this point it stops being a ramp and turns a sharp corner.

Yes, EVs have to become available in the form factors they want. And yes, there will need to be education of the masses about how and where to charge their cars. But the growing number of EV owners are going to be the teachers. And the more EVs that people see on the road, the more people are going to be willing to ask their friends, neighbors and co-workers about them.

If you think any part of this "crystal ball" is wrong, let me know, but you'll be disagreeing with the technology adoption curve that has been repeated throughout history, so it's a tough argument to make. About the only legitimate difference of opinion we can have is the timescale. Yes, with falling battery prices, the percentage of the cost of the battery to the vehicle becomes smaller, so the gains in vehicle price become less significant. But I don't think this is going to take more than another 4-5 years. We now have 3 mass produces vehicles with ranges over 300 miles, with several more knocking on the door at 250 (unfortunately in somewhat limited quantities). 2020 should be a big year in terms of new EV releases. Once we get those vehicles with 300 miles on the market, we can start the process of driving the costs down.


Since lorenfb's looking for a crystal ball, how about hard data? https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/upload ... -1Q-19.pdf

It kinda mimics Norway's EV adoption doesn't it?

Edit: The relevant graph is on page 2.


The overall numbers are shewed because of the M3. We'll have to wait for the Q2 M3 data. Until Tesla can repeat 2018 Q4 thru 2019,
most OEMs would rather error on conservative BEV build forecasts for 2020, e.g. marginal 2019 Bolt & Leaf numbers.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F (35C), min discharge (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 25%, temp < 105F

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