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RegGuheert
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Re: Chevrolet Bolt - 60 kWh, 238 mi, < 7s 0-60

Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:50 am

lorenfb wrote:Valid points! But there's still a real question how well a BEV (~ 200 miles) at $35K - $40K will be the turning point for BEV acceptance. The Model 3 appeal results from other factors, e.g. status, which is one of its major appeals versus functionality/overall costs for the typical ICEV consumer. That's the major volume market, i.e. a transition vehicle which is "transparent" overall to the consumer, e.g. today's hybrid.
I see the transition to BEVs to be more of a steady growth of sales rather than an abrupt transition. Also, I don't see Tesla selling (m)any Model 3s for less than $45K during the next two years. They've never hit their promised price before, and I don't expect them to start now. Chevy and Nissan, OTOH, should be able to easily sell their products for $35K or below. Perhaps Nissan will have a very compelling LEAF 2 offering for less than $30K.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

lorenfb
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Re: Chevrolet Bolt - 60 kWh, 238 mi, < 7s 0-60

Thu Jun 01, 2017 11:03 am

RegGuheert wrote:I see the transition to BEVs to be more of a steady growth of sales rather than an abrupt transition.


Right, no exponential curve!

RegGuheert wrote:Also, I don't see Tesla selling (m)any Model 3s for less than $45K during the next two years. They've never hit their promised price before, and I don't expect them to start now.


And at the expense of Model S volume to a certain extent, i.e. the Model S & 3 look very similar - and that's the
key Tesla appeal for many.

RegGuheert wrote:Chevy and Nissan, OTOH, should be able to easily sell their products for $35K or below. Perhaps Nissan will have a very compelling LEAF 2 offering for less than $30K


It's all a simple function of the battery cost curve.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Chevrolet Bolt - 60 kWh, 238 mi, < 7s 0-60

Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:50 pm

lorenfb wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:I see the transition to BEVs to be more of a steady growth of sales rather than an abrupt transition.
Right, no exponential curve!
I think the growth in BEV sales will be exponential for the foreseeable future. I just don't expect the exponent to be overly large. It appears that sales will increase by 20% YOY in 2017. That's a doubling of sales approximately every three years or so.

Time will tell.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

lorenfb
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Re: Chevrolet Bolt - 60 kWh, 238 mi, < 7s 0-60

Thu Jun 01, 2017 6:22 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:I see the transition to BEVs to be more of a steady growth of sales rather than an abrupt transition.
Right, no exponential curve!
I think the growth in BEV sales will be exponential for the foreseeable future. I just don't expect the exponent to be overly large. It appears that sales will increase by 20% YOY in 2017. That's a doubling of sales approximately every three years or so.

Time will tell.


Yes, time will tell. InsideEVs' guesstimate, given their vehicle focus, is obviously somewhat self-interest motivated.

DaveinOlyWA
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Re: Chevrolet Bolt - 60 kWh, 238 mi, < 7s 0-60

Fri Jun 02, 2017 6:54 am

RegGuheert wrote:
lorenfb wrote:Valid points! But there's still a real question how well a BEV (~ 200 miles) at $35K - $40K will be the turning point for BEV acceptance. The Model 3 appeal results from other factors, e.g. status, which is one of its major appeals versus functionality/overall costs for the typical ICEV consumer. That's the major volume market, i.e. a transition vehicle which is "transparent" overall to the consumer, e.g. today's hybrid.
I see the transition to BEVs to be more of a steady growth of sales rather than an abrupt transition. Also, I don't see Tesla selling (m)any Model 3s for less than $45K during the next two years. They've never hit their promised price before, and I don't expect them to start now. Chevy and Nissan, OTOH, should be able to easily sell their products for $35K or below. Perhaps Nissan will have a very compelling LEAF 2 offering for less than $30K.


This seems to be the likely scenario with most likely range listed first.

Chevy sells Bolt 240 mile range low to mid 30's

LEAF II 160 miles of range mid to low 20's

T3 210 miles of range, low to mid 40's.

Hard to see them fighting for the same space when there is plenty to go around.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles. 2016 S30; 18,297 miles. 363 GIDs, Ahr 82.34, Hx; 100.00% kwh 28.1 QCs 165, L2's 190
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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DNAinaGoodWay
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Re: Chevrolet Bolt - 60 kWh, 238 mi, < 7s 0-60

Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:45 am

Current Drive Green lease offers on LT trim in MA and RI:

IMG_6681.JPG
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
'12 SL last reading @ 2 yr, 22k, 260 GIDs, 62.35 Ahr

'15 SV w/QC, Mfd 5/14, Leased 8/14, 292 GIDs, 64.38 Ahr when new

@ 25 months, 25k, 267 GID, 56.88 AHr
@ 36 months, 34k, 270 GID, 57.49 AHr


6.72 kW Array

DaveinOlyWA
Gold Member
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Re: Chevrolet Bolt - 60 kWh, 238 mi, < 7s 0-60

Sat Jun 10, 2017 6:10 am

DNAinaGoodWay wrote:Current Drive Green lease offers on LT trim in MA and RI:

IMG_6681.JPG



Half the lease terms are really no help
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles. 2016 S30; 18,297 miles. 363 GIDs, Ahr 82.34, Hx; 100.00% kwh 28.1 QCs 165, L2's 190
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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DNAinaGoodWay
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Location: Central Massachusetts

Re: Chevrolet Bolt - 60 kWh, 238 mi, < 7s 0-60

Sun Jun 11, 2017 5:04 am

Premier lease offers:

IMG_6686.JPG
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
'12 SL last reading @ 2 yr, 22k, 260 GIDs, 62.35 Ahr

'15 SV w/QC, Mfd 5/14, Leased 8/14, 292 GIDs, 64.38 Ahr when new

@ 25 months, 25k, 267 GID, 56.88 AHr
@ 36 months, 34k, 270 GID, 57.49 AHr


6.72 kW Array

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evnow
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Re: Chevrolet Bolt - 60 kWh, 238 mi, < 7s 0-60

Sun Jun 11, 2017 2:05 pm

RegGuheert wrote:If Tesla cannot produce the car in some volume rather quickly, there may be quite a few defectors to other brands.


But not necessarily BEVs ! Only a small % of 400k reservation holders would consider a Bolt instead of 3. Most of them will go back to their usual ICE brands & models.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to ?

GRA
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Re: Chevrolet Bolt - 60 kWh, 238 mi, < 7s 0-60

Tue Jun 20, 2017 5:03 pm

Via IEVS:
Chevrolet Bolt EV An IIHS Top Safety Pick – Crash Test Videos
http://insideevs.com/chevrolet-bolt-iih ... st-videos/
. . . The Bolt turned in good reports in all five crashworthiness tests, and only fell short on one count: poor-rated headlights.

On that count, IIHS explains:

“They provide fair to good visibility but produce excessive glare for oncoming drivers. . . .”
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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