iPlug
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:40 pm

lorenfb wrote:Given the irrational behavior of the typical TSLA investor, it won't be until mid 2019 for the market to realize that the M3
isn't the financial savior Tesla needed...Most naysayers predicted that the M3 wouldn't be delivered to reservation holders for a price less than $50K, if ever. For 2018 deliveries, this has even been confirmed by Tesla.

Agree with skepticism on Tesla to deliver a significant quantity (to meet demand or qualify for the full federal tax credit) of the $35k-36k version for a long time beyond fan predictions. I had also maintained this stance from the beginning.

But it’s hard to deny how well they have done to this point. I am not so confident in the market to correct the TSLA stock as described. You may be right. But if I were that certain, I would be shorting the stock.
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cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:57 am

iPlug wrote:But it’s hard to deny how well they have done to this point.

From my spreadsheet we've I've been tracking their profits and losses, they've racked up a net loss of of about $4.5 billion since they started reporting publicly (I've almost always been choosing the "net loss attributable to common shareholders" from their SEC filings).

And they have also racked up over $10 billion in debt. From http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filin ... IK=1318605
As of December 31, 2017, we and our subsidiaries had outstanding $10.17 billion in aggregate principal amount of indebtedness (see Note 13, Convertible and Long-Term Debt Obligations, to the consolidated financial statements included elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K).

They only recently passed producing 300K vehicles since inception: https://electrek.co/2018/02/14/tesla-de ... h-vehicle/.

The large automakers (e.g. GM, VW Group, Toyota and Nissan-Renault alliance) sell and produce do about 10 million EACH. They each produce what TSLA has done since inception in under 34 days.

See my comment at viewtopic.php?p=463875#p463875, as well.

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iPlug
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:51 am

cwerdna wrote:
iPlug wrote:But it’s hard to deny how well they have done to this point.

From my spreadsheet we've I've been tracking their profits and losses, they've racked up a net loss of of about $4.5 billion since they started reporting publicly (I've almost always been choosing the "net loss attributable to common shareholders" from their SEC filings).

My comment was a continuation from my prior post. To be clear, I was referring to the run up in stock price that shareholders had enjoyed as much as Tesla navigating an interesting balance sheet and keeping investors interested and optimistic.

Truly, their massive borrowing and debt issues are unprecedented when looking at stock price and valuation. But there still remains a line of faithful willing to buy debt and stock. That must be read that investors believe future, real, and sufficiently large profits still await, even though Musk has never delivered anything on time and scale.

Since the distant future is murkier than now or the near future, TSLA is still a gamble much more than a value stock. But it's 2018 and they're still here and more intriguing products are dangled for the pipeline.

I have no skin ($) in the game either way because I feel neither confident that they will fail or continue on their run. These are uncharted waters.
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Nubo
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:33 pm

cwerdna wrote:From my spreadsheet we've I've been tracking their profits and losses, they've racked up a net loss of of about $4.5 billion since they started reporting publicly (I've almost always been choosing the "net loss attributable to common shareholders" from their SEC filings).

And they have also racked up over $10 billion in debt. From http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filin ... IK=1318605
...

They only recently passed producing 300K vehicles since inception: https://electrek.co/2018/02/14/tesla-de ... h-vehicle/.

The large automakers (e.g. GM, VW Group, Toyota and Nissan-Renault alliance) sell and produce do about 10 million EACH. They each produce what TSLA has done since inception in under 34 days.


I can't say whether Tesla will ultimately thrive, but I'd suggest that their debt and their size vs the majors are consistent, not contradictory facts. Going from startup to major auto-maker is a totally different proposition today than it was in the early 1900's when the majors grew to their might in an organic fashion. Today a new maker must either remain a niche player, or grow with extreme aggressiveness. And to do it as an EV maker has its own challenges. Doubling the world's production of batteries isn't an inexpensive proposition.
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GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:39 pm

X-post from Tesla Supercharger network, via IEVS:
Tesla Quietly Jacks Up Supercharging Rates In U.S.
https://insideevs.com/tesla-quietly-raises-u-s-supercharging-rates/

This does call into even further question how Tesla can provide electricity at Megachargers for $0.07/kWh. It's been suggested that the purpose of this move is to get the people who should be charging at home off the SCs, and that may be valid, but you'd think Tesla would announce it publicly if that was the rationale, much as they did earlier to try and prevent commercial users from hogging SCs.
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:24 pm

GRA wrote:X-post from Tesla Supercharger network, via IEVS:
Tesla Quietly Jacks Up Supercharging Rates In U.S.
https://insideevs.com/tesla-quietly-raises-u-s-supercharging-rates/

This does call into even further question how Tesla can provide electricity at Megachargers for $0.07/kWh. It's been suggested that the purpose of this move is to get the people who should be charging at home off the SCs, and that may be valid, but you'd think Tesla would announce it publicly if that was the rationale, much as they did earlier to try and prevent commercial users from hogging SCs.


Musk has commented on it SEVERAL times but apparently no one cared.

Bu there is still the legion of Teslas out there with lifetime privileges. I guess we have to see how long it takes for those few screw it up for the rest...
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:17 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:[...Bu there is still the legion of Teslas out there with lifetime privileges. I guess we have to see how long it takes for those few screw it up for the rest...
Those of us with "free" Supercharging — paid for in the price of our cars — will become an increasingly small proportion of the total users. Given the low number of Model 3s at present that isn't currently the case, but in a couple of years it ought to change in a big way as the fleet of Model 3s and Ys greatly outnumbers the S and X. Assuming that Tesla doesn't collapse, as some here so fervently hope.

I'm wondering whether "free" Supercharging will go away for new S and X sales or whether it will stay as a way to distinguish the higher end models from the less costly ones.
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RegGuheert
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:18 am

GRA wrote:This does call into even further question how Tesla can provide electricity at Megachargers for $0.07/kWh.
How does it do that? Why would you think retail rates of over $0.20/kWh at a Supercharger network which is distributed to meet the disparate needs of a wide variety of consumers implies that Tesla cannot manage a $0.07/kWh wholesale rate for a customer where they can optimize location and utilization in order to minimize overhead costs. Postalized rates allow Tesla to balance their costs between various locations, but they will need to use a combination of PV production and buying power to achieve rates which average to be low across the country.

Additionally, I expect many Tesla Semi customers will want to have Superchargers at their own facilities, as has been discussed previously in this thread. In those cases, Tesla will likely be selling the equipment and service contracts to the trucking customers, so they will NOT have to amortize those capital and maintenance costs in the price of the electricity.
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lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:03 pm

Musk sees self-driving cars being able to handle all modes of driving by the end of 2019 and sees Tesla's autopilot safer than human drivers within two years.


Thank God! I’ll live to see no more auto accidents by the end of 2019. What would this world be without Elon?

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cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Mar 17, 2018 5:33 pm

cwerdna wrote:Hadn't realized this until someone posted this on "TMC".

Tesla’s Chief Accounting Officer leaves the automaker (posted March 8, 2018, not to be confused with a CFO)
https://electrek.co/2018/03/08/tesla-ts ... er-leaves/

Tesla loses one of its most senior engineers and director of manufacturing
https://electrek.co/2018/01/17/tesla-se ... facturing/
Jalopnik reported that both Jason Mendez, senior director for manufacturing engineering, and Will McColl, senior manager for equipment engineering, both left the automaker in recent weeks.

Mendez has been with Tesla since 2005 – making him one of its most senior engineers.

Along these lines, https://www.autoblog.com/2018/03/14/tes ... s-model-3/ and others report that
Bloomberg reports that Susan Repo, Tesla's corporate treasurer and vice president of finance, has left the company to become chief financial officer at another company. Her departure comes on the heels of the exit of Chief Accounting Officer Eric Branderiz, who left "for personal reasons," Tesla said in a March 7 SEC filing.

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